KRIEGER: It's Texas, USC in winner-take-all dream

By Dave Krieger, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published January 13, 2009 at 6:09 p.m.

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In case you didn't know it before the NFL divisional playoffs, you do now: The teams the experts think are best don't always win when it counts.

So while the BCS was holding a sloppy, alleged championship game between two teams arbitrarily anointed by experts and computer programs last week, our fictional Bowl Championship Playoff was holding a Friday Night Lights final four on the eve of the NFL's busy weekend.

From our initial field of 16, which consisted of 11 conference champions and five at-large bids, the first two rounds brought us four semifinalists: No. 1 seed Florida, No. 2 seed Oklahoma, No. 3 seed Texas and No. 5 seed Southern Cal.

As he has throughout our imagined 16-team BCP, Richard Gardner, sportsbook manager at BodogLife.com, provided point spreads and pregame commentary for the semifinal matchups.

The first game of Friday night's doubleheader was the Orange Bowl, a chance for Oklahoma to avenge its only regular-season loss. Texas trailed through much of that game, but took control with a 25-point second half to win 45-35.

In the rematch, Gardner made the Sooners a three-point favorite. The spread in the first game between the Big 12 South powers was twice that. Oklahoma was the favorite in that one, too.

"Texas will ask Colt McCoy to put the Longhorns on his back as he did in the first meeting, while Oklahoma should try to get its running game going, which it had difficulty doing in the first game," Gardner said. "This should be the best game of the playoffs to date and I would not be surprised if either of these teams plays for the championship."

For the second time, the underrated Texas defense stuffed the Oklahoma running game. Senior defensive end Brian Orakpo, who sacked Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford twice in the earlier meeting, got to him three more times in the playoff.

Once again, the game was close for three quarters. In the fourth, speedy Longhorns wideout Quan Cosby scored twice as Texas proved its earlier victory was no fluke, taking the rematch 48-31.

"Nobody can beat us now," said an elated coach Mack Brown.

In the nightcap, Gardner made Florida a 31/2-point favorite over Southern Cal in the Fiesta Bowl.

"Speed meets power," Gardner said. "USC will make Tim Tebow throw the football to win and look for explosive safety Taylor Mays to be in the box to take away the run threat of Tebow. If Tebow can make plays with his arm, it should open up running lanes for him and his stable of running backs in the second half of the game. For USC, sustaining long drives and keeping the Florida offense off the field will be key to their success."

As in the opener, the underdog shut down the favorite's running game early on. With linebackers Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing blowing up the Florida run gaps, Southern Cal defensive coordinator Nick Holt assigned Mays to track Tebow all night.

As a blitzer, Mays did not play with his usual abandon, aware of Tebow's ability to fake the pass and take off running. As a result, although Tebow was sacked only twice, he was harassed and contained all night. He was also intercepted twice — as many times as he had been picked off throughout the regular season.

On the other side of the ball, Trojans quarterback Mark Sanchez continued his late-season climb into the upper echelon of college passers, taking advantage of a multiplicity of targets in the short passing game. With the Gators blanketing his favorite receiver, senior Damian Williams, Sanchez connected 10 times with sophomore Ronald Johnson, twice for touchdowns.

Southern Cal took a 17-3 lead into the locker room at halftime. Its top-ranked defense, which pitched three shutouts during the regular season and gave up an average of nine points a game, controlled most of the second half, except for a 59-yard touchdown run off a screen pass from Tebow to Florida junior Percy Har- vin.

With a minute remaining, the Gators were forced to go for it on fourth-and-14 from their own 25. Mays sacked Tebow and Sanchez took a knee to close out a 20-13 triumph.

"I really believe no one can beat us now," said Southern Cal coach Pete Carroll.

The semifinals set up the BCP's final game,to be played Saturday, the day before the NFL's conference championships:

Rose Bowl: No. 3 Texas vs. No. 5 Southern Cal.

In an interview following the nightcap, the Longhorns' Brown said it was regrettable that the final would be played in Pasadena.

"This is basically a home game for our opponent," Brown said. "I would think the BCP committee might want to review these site decisions in the future."

Told of Brown's complaint, Carroll smiled. "Mack's very good at giving his team a reason to have a little chip on its shoulder," he said. "If I'm remembering right, they played their second-round game in the Cotton Bowl."

That was just the start of the gamesmanship as the two teams prepared for a true college football championship game.

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