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LINCICOME: Successor rarely finds success

By Bernie Lincicome, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published January 4, 2009 at 5:32 p.m.

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Sports wisdom dictates that it is better to be the man who replaces the man who replaced The Man than . . .

Let's do the short version. Whoever takes Mike Shanahan's place will fail. The one after that is the one who will win.

Just as to get to Jay Cutler from John Elway, the most prominent bodies littering the field are Brian Griese and Jake Plummer. This gives Cutler extra padding in the cushion, something he would not have enjoyed had he had to take over with Elway's socks still in the dryer.

Except for possibly Bill Cowher, there is no one Pat Bowlen can hire who will not be stepping on Shanahan's shadow day after day.

Shanahan's own history backs this up. He was not the man who replaced Dan Reeves, then the signature coach of the franchise, but he took over for Wade Phillips and, by the way, won only one more game the next year than Phillips had.

After Reeves was found as inadequate as Shanahan just has been, it took four years for the Broncos to get back to the playoffs, though the big prize was won, the first of two Super Bowls. And Reeves left Phillips a better team than Shanahan has left coach TBA (to be announced).

Just what comes after a fired or retired coaching legend? Well, let's see.

Let's start with Don Shula, the greatest of them all, and to pair Shanahan with Shula is a bit like matching a slipper with a work shoe. But give Shanahan his due, he will be in the Ring of Fame someday.

Shula finally gave way after 26 years with the Dolphins, five Super Bowls, two wins, the 17-0 season, 19 division titles and only two losing seasons.

Jimmy Johnson, Shula's replacement, brought his own substantial resume - two Super Bowl titles of his own - yet won one less game the next season, lasted only four seasons and made the playoffs only once.

And worse is generally the case, exceptions being Johnson handing over a two-time Super Bowl winner in Dallas to Barry Switzer, who wasted a season before getting another championship, and Bill Walsh giving the 49ers to George Seifert, who won immediately.

The Broncos are neither those Cowboys nor those 49ers, but more like the usual disappointments that get impatient with the very man who brought them their greatest glory.

Johnson also replaced Tom Landry, who created America's Team with the Cowboys, and instantly went 1-15, feeling as most new coaches do that he must tear down the old before building the new.

This could happen to the Broncos, and it should happen on defense. The whole flailing bunch of them, including Champ Bailey, ought to have to pay their own way out of town.

But hiring a defensive expert is no guarantee of fixing anything. Consider that when Mike Holmgren left Green Bay, still with a potent offense that had gone 11-5, his replacement, Ray Rhodes, strode manfully to 8-8.

George Allen gave way to Jack Pardee and the Redskins were nothing until Joe Gibbs got there. And when Gibbs left a winning team to Richie Petitbon, the result was 4-12.

It came as a surprise to Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops, apparently, that the Broncos had any interest in him, as they should not have. The greatest college coach is invariably a bust in the NFL, the best examples being Lou Holtz not even finishing a season with the Jets and Steve Spurrier staining a perfectly earned reputation as a genius.

The usual way this is done is to hire either a coach with a record (and none has a better one than Shanahan) or a hot coordinator, offense or defense, the theory being that familiarity with the NFL shortens the learning curve.

A hot coordinator is one whose team is in the playoffs, as if somehow success is the fault of "all those little people" that the winning coach thanks while holding up the trophy.

The greatest reinforcement of this method is Bill Belichick, who was begat by Bill Parcells, who also begat Romeo Crennel, so the system is not foolproof. Belichick himself spawned both Charlie Weis and Eric Mangini.

There are too many Ray Rhodeses and Dave Wannstedts and Gunther Cunninghams to make any of this more than, really, just potluck.

Adding a whole new wrinkle for Bowlen is the success this season of coaches without any credentials at all. Playoff coaches Tony Sparano in Miami, John Harbaugh in Baltimore and Mike Smith in Atlanta came from nowhere, if you don't include Sparano's time head coaching the New Haven Chargers.

However it goes, whoever it is, Shanahan will be the measurement. Just as is Elway.

Comments

  • January 4, 2009

    7:06 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    nmbronco1 writes:

    ??? Lincicome is entitled to his opinion, but to me, at least 75% of what is written in this article is just plain wrong. I've said it before and I'll say it again - Lincicome is the ultimate example of someone who will always see a half-full cup as half-empty. Send Champ Bailey packing? No chance for the next coach to make this team a winner? This is spelled as N-E-G-A-T-I-V-I-T-Y. When's the RMN going to find someone who has something positive to say about the Denver sports teams?

  • January 4, 2009

    7:48 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    den2mke writes:

    One notable exception to the overall premise here, of course, is Cowher who certainly did pretty well over the years.

    What I hate in this whole thing is the sentiment that since Shanahan's successor can't possibly be as good a coach, the Broncos will most certainly go backward. Look, I don't think Mike Tomlin is nearly as good a coach as Bill Cowher, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him win more Super Bowls--maybe in his first half-dozen years. Why? Cowher left him a solid QB, good talent otherwise and Tomlin's been able to plug a few gaps along the way.

    There are plethora of instances where the Barry Switzers of the world were able to capture glory and previous 'geniuses' ended up looking much worse, downshifting from Lamborghini organizations to Yugos.

    Point is, it's not impossible a reasonably good coach--maybe not even Shanahan's equal--could further enable a young, talented offense (keeping current staff in place may even be a good start), restructure a defense into top-10 territory and, potentially, win multiple championships. Not saying it will happen, just that in the NFL I've seen crazier.

    Last night's comeback not-withstanding, the Chargers are still in the hands of the largely incapable Norv Turner and will have cap issues like other teams in the next few years as the younger superstars all seek to get paid. KC's liable to be in 'rebuilding mode' 2 or 3 more times before they become a real threat. And, regardless of late-season success, the Raiders' dysfunctional nature--and potential QB bust--will allow for limited success at best. So, contention for the division crown in the near term seems certainly possible.

    And it may not even require the genius of Mike Shanahan.

  • January 4, 2009

    7:50 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    pwsbronco writes:

    Lincicome you have never been correct in anything you write. You are not even qualified to write a sports opinion no less a sports column. So can anyone tell us why we even care what his opinions are? You have never been a Bronco fan, you have always been very negative towards the Bronco's...........So, give us a break and just dissappear.....

  • January 4, 2009

    9:11 p.m.

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    Mark13 writes:

    Maybe those who couldn't wait to get rid of Shanahan don't want to admit it but it's a shot in the dark picking a new coach. He could turn out to be the next Sparano or the next Romeo Crennel.

  • January 4, 2009

    9:40 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    positivefreedom writes:

    Hey Scripps - save money now, dump Bernice!

    Oh, and if you have any interest in actually covering the Broncos - get your beat writer to read Shef's blog.

  • January 4, 2009

    9:46 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    positivefreedom writes:

    Schef's blog says that we were impressed by Spags but McDaniels is the front runner. He also said that Morris' interview has been moved up from Wed to Mon but no reason given.

    I sure hope Spags impression grows on them, because he is exactly what we need - knows how to pressure the QB and has character. This is similiar to the Colts who needed a DC to come in let Peyton be Peyton while getting the d up to snuff. We do not need McDaniels or Garrett, we need somebody that can get us a pass rush!

  • January 4, 2009

    9:50 p.m.

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    Spider writes:

    That does it! I'm buying the RMN and the first thing I'll do is fire Bernice. She's got to go!

  • January 5, 2009

    1:55 a.m.

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    curoma writes:

    None of you guys are experts, are ya'? Ber-nerd ain't neetha'! I believe it IS his job to view the glass as half-empty. Nobody could be THAT negative, all the time. Could they?
    I've said this in response to several articles in the last few days, I'ma gonna say it a'gin; I have faith in Pat to do the right thing for this team, for this community and for HIS business that is the Denver Broncos.
    Whatever the blog says, is the same as all the other fodder in the local rags. Its all speculation designed to get reaction and spur interest in having all of us read this stuff. Keep us interested. The final decision will certainly NOT be as obvious as the last hire was, but I trust it will be fine.
    In Pat We Trust, (because we must).
    Just think how the Raider fans feel, we're pretty damn lucky if you ask me.

  • January 5, 2009

    9:10 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    yamahabass2 writes:

    The truth is the 2008 Broncos had no business beating Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, etc. this year with the number of injuries they had on both sides of the ball. They should have won five games tops. With that said, the Broncos will be an offensive force next year. The offensive line looks great. The receiving corps is excellent and will only get better when the running game gets sorted out. The defense does not have to dominant for this team to win, only adequate. Hopefully that is what the new coach brings to the table.

  • January 5, 2009

    9:23 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    mt2ri writes:

    Message to new coach:
    Get back to winning home games & win 1 play-off game in the next 10 years, and your Golden... oh yeah, lots of golf and dinner dates with Bowlen.

  • January 5, 2009

    10:28 a.m.

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    Six_Does_Not_Equal_Seven writes:

    Nice column, Bernie... Did you notice that Dave Kreiger wrote this same column 2 or 3 days ago, Bernie? Only, of course, his had valid points and good information, Bernie.

  • January 5, 2009

    11:14 a.m.

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    cugrad writes:

    Why do so many people think that it is a columnist's job to be a cheerleader for the local team? I would prefer objectivity, and even a touch of cynicism, that brings me thought provoking information.

  • January 5, 2009

    11:36 a.m.

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    Spider writes:

    Anyone who thinks Bernice is interesting....has a pretty strange look on life.

  • January 5, 2009

    11:48 a.m.

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    Six_Does_Not_Equal_Seven writes:

    Not asking anyone to be a cheerleader for the team. DK is not a cheerleader by any means - did you read his column a week ago ? The day before Shanahan got fired? Certainly not cheerleading - DK calls it like it is. Bernie is just a regurgitator of what others have said - only he spews forth from a place of jealousy most of the time.

  • January 5, 2009

    11:49 a.m.

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    johna writes:

    Bull sh**

  • January 5, 2009

    12:25 p.m.

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    DeadMeat writes:

    I'm really tired of all the "The sky is falling...!" nonsense regarding the Bronco's dismissal of Mike Shanahan. Its time for writers and posters to acknowledge that the Denver Broncos under Coach Mike have been a mediocre (that means average...at best) NFL franchise for the past 10 years. Coach Mike tinkered with the team on a yearly basis and destroyed the CONTINUITY that is required for success. I'm glad Shanahan is gone. We've gone 7-9 and 8-8 and failed the post-season test for years. if we have to endure the same junk with another coach, so be it. At least with a new coach & GM we will have a real chance of improvement which Coach Mike's constant tinkering and blame-game tactics had made less likely every season. 'Nuf said...:)

  • January 5, 2009

    1:51 p.m.

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    jersey writes:

    Lincicome albeit a shadow can be large in perception but we are talking about Shanny here and not the HOF'er QB? I believe he wore #7 and according to more than just a few he was the major reason for Shanny having a shadow to cast in the first place. Your statement means nothing to me but I just thought I would bring that into the equation.

  • January 5, 2009

    1:59 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    broncointuc writes:

    First of all sports writers are not supposed to "stroke" the local fans. It's their job to spark thought, and debate, so it's obvious Bernie is doing his job he got you all going. It doesn't matter who becomes head coach, Shanahan's legacy will live for a long while. Having said that, I do believe it was time for a change, my vote is for Spags.. Whomever Mr Bowlen chooses, will have an offensive arsenal in place, So it better be a coach that "THINKS DEFENSE". So lets all get over losing Coach Shanahan, and move on, and PLEASE Stop looking for ANY sportswriter to soothe your feelings, Fact is the Broncos did very well considering all the obstacle they had to endure, there are no positive words for the Broncos, that will get them Back in to THIS YEARS playoffs

  • January 5, 2009

    2:13 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Coffee_Mug writes:

    So, what about Bill Cowher? Is he "in the running", or has he said no before the hoopla gets started? As with Spags, he is a Super Bowl caliber coach, and defensive minded. Which the Broncos are in need of. Just a thought, should be interesting to see how this plays out....

  • January 5, 2009

    3:07 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    jersey writes:

    Coffee: Cowher said yesterday on TV that is staying on as an analyst for at least one more year. That dog's a scratch and ain't racing!

  • January 5, 2009

    3:38 p.m.

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    tomk writes:

    I actually don't really care who of all the unknown names that I read in Braveheart country gets the job(s). What I want is someone who will be committed to the Broncos cause and work out the unbelievebly obvious that the Defense is the basic problem combined with the injury-excusable lack of a running back. Given this, I leave it to you guys to work out what management team will do this best. PB we need you to make the right decision. However, in Scotland I will maintain my one-man Broncos supporters club in Gasgow, UK. Hope you can accept a foreigner!

  • January 5, 2009

    5:17 p.m.

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    UrsusArctos writes:

    Write this down: Shanahan was fired because his stupid owner listened to marketing and sales reports not by carefully and thoroughly evaluating the state of his team. To wit, no coach can win games if you lose 6 running backs and three of your top defensive players! The Broncos are on the cusp and nearly pulled off a miracle this season. To fire the coach, who has been rebuilding this team while coming close to the playoffs, is dumb, dumb, dumb. Great going Bowlen. Why don't you go parade around in your mink coat back in Canada, eh? Leave football to Americans, and those who actually know what is going on. Good luck next for the next 10 years! Mediocrity here we come! Hope this bonehead move pays off like your investments with that Madoff guy! ha ha

  • January 5, 2009

    5:44 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    nathanfrigerio writes:

    Bernie will be going nowhere as long as people read his column.
    If you cheerleaders wearing rose colored glasses would stop being the first to comment, he would have trouble. By the way, it's his job to be negative, he offsets the mostly pliable media.