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Odds don't favor Bennet holding onto seat

By David Montero, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published January 2, 2009 at 5:45 p.m.
Updated January 2, 2009 at 5:45 p.m.

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When Michael Bennet assumes the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Ken Salazar, he'll be part of a deliberative body trying to rescue the nation from its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

But he'll also have to immediately begin working on a campaign for 2010 — a prospect that history shows can be daunting for appointed senators.

According to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com, a Web site that analyzes political data, only 40 percent of appointed senators seeking election since 1956 hung onto their seat.

Silver points out that seven of the 49 senators who were appointed by governors didn't even make it out of their party's primary and that 13 lost in a general election. Another 10 didn't seek election after their appointment.

That's what happened the last time a Colorado governor had to fill a vacant Senate seat.

In 1923, Gov. William Sweet appointed Alva B. Adams to succeed Sen. Samuel Nicholson, who died in office. Adams didn't run for the seat when his appointed term ended.

Ken Bickers, chair of the political science department at the University of Colorado, said Bennet faces unique challenges as an appointed senator.

"If the person being appointed isn't someone who has run for statewide office before, it's often the case they aren't as skilled at raising money and organizing a campaign to win the office," he said. "It's one thing you get with elected officials — someone who doesn't have to learn on the job how to win a campaign."

Bickers also said Republicans will view the seat as vulnerable and target it as a possible pick-up because voters didn't elect Bennet.

Bennet will also have to compete for campaign dollars as Gov. Bill Ritter runs for re-election and Democrats face a tough contest in the Fourth Congressional District. Republicans lost that congressional seat in 2008 and will push hard to take it back.

"Donors may be feeling tapped out by then," Bickers said.

Comments

  • January 3, 2009

    2:54 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    YellowCatRedCat writes:

    My prediction is that Bennet loses the 2010 primary yet Dems still hold the seat.

  • January 3, 2009

    4:26 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    DakotaPlainsman writes:

    YellowCat, you might be right. From what I have seen of the Colorado Republican party they could not poor piss out of a boot if the instructions were on the bottom.

  • January 3, 2009

    6:02 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    milehiloco writes:

    MIchael Bennet will prove to be a GREAT US Senator and will represent our state in a manner deserving of all Coloradoans. I look forward to watching him in action and supporting him in 2010. Adelante con Michael Bennet! AJUAA!

  • January 3, 2009

    4:37 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    jmfslots writes:

    DakotaPlainsman wrote: YellowCat, you might be right. From what I have seen of the Colorado Republican party they could not poor piss out of a boot if the instructions were on the bottom.

    You might want to check a dictionary- there is a big difference between "poor" and "pour". Must have gone to school in Denver School System! Heeheehee.

  • January 3, 2009

    6:02 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    scootmandubious writes:

    As somebody from outside of your state, who has read up on the selection after it was made, a couple of points.

    It seems the selection was done for 2 reasons:

    First, in this highly volatile and uncertain economy, which America hasn't seen, possibly since the depression, it seems the Governor's main concern was in finding somebody especially skilled in creative problem-solving and consensus-building.

    Second, by choosing a non-politician, essentially, he has leveled the playing field for 2010. This doesn't give any of the other traditional pols a leg up.

    I, for one, wish Bennet all the best. For the sake of our country's future, Coloradans should unite behind him as well. Give the man a chance.

  • January 4, 2009

    6:54 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    conservative111 writes:

    scootmandubious writes: "First, in this highly volatile and uncertain economy, which America hasn't seen, possibly since the depression," must not have been around for Jimmy Carter's first and ONLY term with 21% interest rates, 12% unemployment and 10% inflation. Funny how Jimma's term and his accomplishments never come up.........