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Sam Adams' Open Mic: Why the Broncos will beat the Raiders

By Sam Adams, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published September 7, 2008 at 12:44 a.m.
Updated September 8, 2008 at 12:43 p.m.

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You can't give a prediction around here without an explanation. So here are my reasons for why the Broncos will beat Oakland on Monday Night Football.

Grab your pen and paper. Take a lesson.

First, the Broncos' running game, with Selvin Young, Andre Hall and Michael Pittman. A strong running always has been the key ingredient to Mike Shanahan's formula for success. The strategy won't change on Monday.

Did you read what former Raiders defensive lineman (and new NFL Network commentator) Warren Sapp told me earlier in the week? You should have. After all, I do write with you in mind.

Here is a take from Sapp on Denver's running game: "Shanahan's going to get into that nasty little double tight end set that he likes, put it in motion, find out if you're in man-to-man defense or Cover 3 because those are the basic coverages that you get, and then he'll attack -- run the ball." Sapp also said, "I know the system Oakland plays . . . (the Raiders) are in trouble."

Now, last season Denver gained only 86 yards on 29 carries in a 34-20 loss at Oakland, so the Raiders' system can't be all bad. But in that game, the Broncos fell behind by double-digits (mainly because of turnovers) and had to pass the ball to play catch-up.

Mark this down: Barring last-minute personnel moves, the Raiders will be playing with only seven defensive linemen on the roster -- including three defensive tackles. Trust me, the Broncos' coaching staff has taken notice of those numbers, and will bang at the Raiders with the run often in hopes of wearing down those seven linemen. The list of seven linemen includes defensive end Kalimba Edwards, who been listed on Oakland's injury report all week.

I mentioned turnovers in the last meeting between the two teams. The Broncos committed four, which led to 24 of Oakland's 30 points. Denver had trouble securing the ball in road games throughout the '07 season -- 17 in eight games. When you average two turnovers a game, you're playing with fire and hoping not to lose.

Stronger run game. Even stronger run defense. Ball security. Improved quarterback play from Jay Cutler. Those are the Broncos' keys for success.

As for the Raiders, they're still referring to themselves as the "Team of the Decades." Decade -- or is it decayed? The House of Black and Silver just isn't in order.

JaMarcus Russell is big, strong and still is very green for a starting NFL quarterback. Troubled wide receiver Javon Walker wanted to give back his signing bonus monies and quit the game. Owner Al Davis doesn't like head coach Lane Kiffin, who might get Shanahan-ed (remember his firing after the Raiders' 1-3 start in 1989?) if Oakland starts the season poorly.

The Raiders' best passing plays of the night might come through rookie running back Darren McFadden. I know the Broncos' coaching staff is wary of McFadden throwing a pass or two like he did at the University of Arkansas. Denver hopes to get a big lead early, shut down the run and force the Raiders to pass the ball. Thing is, even if they're trailing big, the Raiders probably will keep running the ball because they lack confidence in Russell's passing abilities.

Judging from what's been talked about, reported and seen during training camp for both teams, the Broncos right now are better all-around. I'm sure Bronco Country would like a blowout win on Monday. For that matter, Raider Nation would like a blowout win.

Mark this down: the Broncos win 27-17 in a grind-em-up, workman-like performance to start the 2008 season.

By the way, here's a Open Mic tidbit for you: The Broncos will open the regular season on the road against an AFC West opponent for only the second time since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. On Sept. 9, 1990 Denver lost 14-9 against the Los Angeles Raiders at L.A. Coliseum.

Click here to join the discussion already going on about this story on Sam Adams' Open Mic blog.

Comments

  • September 7, 2008

    2:56 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    incognitoboy writes:

    sam adams wrote: "The Broncos will open the regular season on the road against an AFC West opponent for only the second time since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. On Sept. 9, 1990 Denver lost 14-9 against the Los Angeles Raiders at L.A. Coliseum."

    WHAT???! WTF?! i WONT get superstitious, i WONT get superstitious (knocks on wood) i WONT get superstitious (tosses salt) I WONT I WONT I WONT!!!

    *whew* at least it's not at the coliseum, right? right??!

    must have faith.......sure would like sam to say 'see, i was right!'

  • September 7, 2008

    8:45 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    JSpicoli writes:

    Towlie called. He wants his brain back.

  • September 7, 2008

    10:21 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    R8R_H8R writes:

    Too many upsets today, now i'm worried! The bears STOMPED the Colts, AT Indy. The Bills STUFFED the Seasquawks. Last year, the raiders run game (zone blocking scheme copied from Denver) absolutely embarassed Denvers Defense. And NOW they have a guy that is being touted like the second coming of ch....... errrr, Bo Jackson? Opposing quarterbacks, vs. our ineffective D-Line, actually had time to make a pot of tea, and drink it, and still there was NO SIGN OF PRESSURE from our defensive line. That's fine against Russell, but Phillipe' Rivers will pick our D apart with inept play like that.

    last year, phillipe' so disgusted me, yelling at the much classier Cutler, I did this at half-time....

    http://www.freewebs.com/riversisleaf/...