Fantasy football: Week 9 stock watch

By Mark P. Stopa, Special to the Rocky

Published October 30, 2008 at 12:08 p.m.
Updated October 30, 2008 at 12:08 p.m.

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Heading into Week 9 of the NFL season, there is a lot I want to discuss, so let’s get right to the recommendations.

Upgrades

Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles: Coming off broken ribs, Westbrook's ability to return quickly to form was doubted by many fantasy owners. With 167 yards rushing and two touchdowns last week, Westbrook emphatically eliminated all such concerns. I participated in a midseason fantasy draft the other day, and Westbrook was taken first overall. I was not fortunate enough to be drafting first, but if I had been, Westbrook is who I would have taken.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: There have been a couple times this year where I downgraded a player, he had a good game immediately thereafter and I wrote the following week to clarify that he still deserved the downgrade. Marvin Harrison, after his good game against the Ravens, comes to mind. The situation with LT, though, is different. Tomlinson looked like himself against the Saints for the first time in ages. The burst was back, and so were the explosive plays (5.5 yards per carry, 13 yards per reception). After his bye this week, Tomlinson should be one of fantasy’s best players for the rest of the season. Playing in the AFC West (four games left versus the Chiefs, Broncos and Raiders) certainly helps.

Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Before the season, if you had to choose one of Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Roddy White, you would have been crazy to choose White. Now? You’d be crazy not to take White. Matt Ryan has developed more quickly than anticipated, so White’s terrific stats are for real. Expect more of the same this season and for many seasons to come.

Reggie Williams, WR, Jaguars: Williams has been a disappointment so far this year, but he scored last week and had 10 TDs last year, so the potential is certainly there. With Matt Jones likely to face a four-game suspension, Williams is set to become David Garrard’s top option at receiver.

Donnie Avery, WR, Rams: Move over Torry Holt, and make room for Donnie Avery. Avery is the Rams' best receiver right now and is starter-worthy in virtually every fantasy format.

Passing offenses against the Lions: The Detroit Lions are giving up 9.5 yards per pass play, nearly a yard more than every team in the league. To put that number in perspective, last season Tom Brady had perhaps the greatest season by a quarterback of all time, and his YPA was 8.3. Philip Rivers leads the NFL in that statistic this season, and his YPA is 8.7. In other words, the Detroit Lions make every quarterback who faces them look better than the best quarterbacks in the NFL look in a typical game. If that’s not enough to drive home the point, consider that six of the seven quarterbacks who have faced the Lions have posted a new career high in quarterback rating. What does this all mean for you? Easy. If a lineup decision is at all close, and you have anyone facing the Lions, start the guy facing the Lions (and that includes kickers). This is a historically bad pass defense.

No change

Tyler Thigpen, QB, Chiefs: Thigpen had a really nice game against the Jets last week, but I’d like to see him do it more than once before considering him a fantasy option. I doubt he repeats that performance against the Bucs this week.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills: Lots of writers in the fantasy industry are down on Lynch, pointing to his failure to run for 100 yards in a game and his subpar 3.7 YPC. I’m not oblivious to these issues, but I think Lynch will be just fine. If you disagree, check out his remaining schedule: five games left against mediocre AFC East teams plus the Broncos and Chiefs (who I regularly point out have the worst run defenses in the league), and the 49ers and Browns. Trent Edwards is playing well, but the Bills are still a run-first team, especially in the red zone. Plus, as the weather gets bad in the northeast, Lynch will get all the carries he can handle.

Leonard Weaver, FB, Seahawks: Nearly every week, a no-name player has a good game out of nowhere. For example, remember fellow fullback Patrick Cobbs from a few weeks ago? Weaver is in the same boat. He had a nice game, with two long touchdowns, but it’s not going to happen again.

Leon Washington, RB, Jets: Leon Washington will be a hot waiver-wire addition this week, but he shouldn’t be. As I posted last week, you need to chase RBs before they play the Chiefs and Broncos, not after.

Downgrades

Brett Favre, QB, Jets: Before the season, I suspected that Favre might play more like the quarterback from two and three years ago and not the Pro Bowler from last year. Midway through the season, I see no reason to change my opinion. Favre is throwing bad interceptions and is making the Jets' decision to part with Chad Pennington look like a mistake.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: I’ve watched the past two Colts games rather closely, and a pattern has emerged. Defenses are putting their best corner on Wayne, all over the field, leaving their second corner to cover Marvin Harrison. This is what the Packers did two weeks ago with Charles Woodson, and the Titans followed suit with Cortland Finnegan. The results for Wayne were not good -- fewer than 25 yards receiving in both games with no touchdowns. If you own Wayne, you still have to start him, regardless of matchup, but given how opposing teams are playing the Colts, he’s a small notch below the other top receivers in the league, e.g., Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Brandon Marshall.

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