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KRIEGER: Rockies trail Rays in pivotal arms race

By Dave Krieger, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published October 24, 2008 at 5:19 p.m.

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Rays starting pitcher Matt Garza was acquired last offseason from the Minnesota Twins.

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

Rays starting pitcher Matt Garza was acquired last offseason from the Minnesota Twins.

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For all the similarities between this year's baseball fairy tale - the Rays - and last year's - the Rockies - there is one telling difference:

Pitching.

The Rays ranked third in baseball in team ERA this season at 3.82. The Rocks were 26th at 4.77.

This is why there is so much more talk about the Rays than the Rockies as potential long-term contenders. And it is why Rockies ownership should wait to see what general manager Dan O'Dowd does to improve the pitching staff this winter before deciding whether to offer him a contract extension.

Acquiring quality starting pitching in trade is not easy, as O'Dowd frequently reminds us. There is a general shortage, and nobody wants to give it up.

On the other hand, it is not impossible, as the Rays proved last winter by trading for Matt Garza, who will start Game 3 of the World Series as it moves to Philadelphia.

"But we also paid for it," Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman reminded me.

The Rays had to trade Delmon Young, the first overall pick in the 2003 draft. But the Rocks, too, have a couple of pretty impressive hitters to dangle in Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins.

In return for Young, Friedman obtained not only Garza but everyday shortstop Jason Bartlett.

"We feel like we've got a lot of depth right now pitching-wise," Friedman said. "We're a smaller revenue team. It's critically important for us because it's very difficult for us to go out in the free-agent market for a starting pitcher. We have to allocate our resources different places to try to get a little more bang for the buck. And, obviously, smaller revenue teams have less margin for error than bigger revenue teams."

This problem is compounded for the Rockies by Colorado's image as a lousy place to pitch. While the humidor has improved the situation on the ground - the Rocks led the National League in ERA after the All-Star break in 2007 - it has had less effect on its national reputation. Jake Peavy is not the only elite pitcher with a list of preferred destinations that does not include Colorado.

Which is why O'Dowd must trade for pitchers who don't have a choice. Garza acknowledged he was not thrilled initially to be joining the forlorn franchise in Tampa Bay.

"A lot of it comes down to good scouting," said Rays manager Joe Maddon. "And you've got to go beyond just physical ability. A lot of guys throw 95 or 96, whatever. A lot of guys throw good curveballs. It comes down to makeup. You can't just be skillful and not have the good internal mechanism going on that permits you to be good on a consistent basis."

A year ago, the Rocks' scouting department looked brilliant on this score. Even after losing three starting pitchers to injury during the season, they were able to win the pennant on the strength of homegrown arms Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales.

This season, the Rocks' scouting department looked considerably less brilliant. Francis, Jimenez and Morales all regressed, although Jimenez recovered in the second half. Greg Reynolds, the second overall pick in the 2006 draft, was shelled in the big leagues while Tim Lincecum, selected eight choices later, dominated for the Giants.

The veterans O'Dowd assembled to provide depth were uniformly ineffective. The Rocks plunged from 14th in ERA in 2007 to 26th in '08 while the Rays jumped from 29th to third.

No team can contend consistently without good pitching. And whatever Coors Field's national reputation, the Rocks proved in '07 it is possible to pitch effectively there.

The Rays are given a good chance to be more than one-year wonders because of a young starting staff that includes two homegrown arms - James Shields and Andy Sonnanstine - and three obtained in trade - Garza, Scott Kazmir and Edwin Jackson.

Not to mention David Price, the first pick in '07.

Although the Rocks have a number of prospects who might prove to be reliable starters next year, including Morales, Reynolds, Jason Hirsh and Jorge De La Rosa, they learned this year that betting on the come can be a risky way to go.

That means O'Dowd must bring in at least one proven starter, and preferably another starting prospect or two, because pitching depth is the single most important commodity in baseball.

"The other part of having depth is to be able to go out to the marketplace and trade one of them to address other areas of weakness, and there's no better currency on the market than starting pitchers," the Rays' Friedman said. "It's something that Minnesota's done a great job of."

With Holliday having turned down a four-year, $72 million offer last spring, the Rockies are convinced he and agent Scott Boras are headed for free agency at the end of next season. And with Ian Stewart's development, they are also prepared to make Atkins available. Those are two pretty good chips to put on the table.

If the Rocks hope to get back to the heights they reached a year ago, O'Dowd must use those chips to rebuild his pitching staff.

Before giving him another contract extension, Rocks ownership should make sure that he does.

Comments

  • October 25, 2008

    8:24 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    ColoradoSportsFaninTexas writes:

    Its a little early to tell who has the advantage in the "arms race" between the Rays and the Rockies....Lets wait a year or two more before making that judgment....If the Rays falter next year, than what???

    Pitching is not the only factor to winning, as you are making it out to be....If pitching was all you needed, than why didnt the D-Backs with Webb, Haren, and Company get to the World Series, or even win their Division for that matter....Or what about the Giants with Cain, Lincecum, etc.....

    No, pitching is not the only factor...You need to consider timely hitting, and defense....two other factors which the Rays are strong in, but yet you fail to mention......

    All of these articles which are trying to compare the Rox with the Rays are waaayyyyyy premature...How can you compare two teams over a 1 year time span??

    Come back in a couple of years to address this comparison, and than you will be justified....but for now, its just fluff......

  • October 25, 2008

    11:25 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    FreeToChoose writes:

    Last time I checked, the Rays played in a different division in a different league... how about the Rockies worry about the 'arms race' in their own division and their own league!!!

    The Dodgers led the NL in ERA and have a young and deep pitching staff to build around. Chad Billingsly, Hiroki Kuroda and Clayton Kershaw will be a formidable trio for quite a few years. The Diamondbacks had the 5th best ERA in the NL and Webb & Haren ain't going anywhere. If Randy Johnson can pitch another season, that's a pretty good top three as well. Plus, they're position players should only get better with the young talent they've stockpiled. The Giants also have Cain and Lincicome... but luckily aren't as worrisome because they have virtually a AAA club playing behind them (and Cain could be traded this winter). Still, the Rockies top two pitchers can't compete with any of these other teams' 1-2, and often 1-3 pitchers. Jimenez MAY have the stuff of a future ace and Cook MAY continue to put up numbers while avoiding the DL and Francis MAY rebound from a miserable 2008... but at this point, they aren't even competitive in the arms race in their own DIVISION. When the Rockies' staff ERA is only better than the Pittsburgh Pirates and a full run over the league (and division) leader... why exactly are we talking about an arms race with Tampa?????

    Ridiculous.

  • October 25, 2008

    8:58 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    1somelikeithot writes:

    These comparisons of the Rays and Rockies are getting tiresome. The Rays are in a tougher division, have better pitching, better "team" players, better owners and management. Give it a rest will ya. Boooorrrriiinnngg!!!!!!!!!!.