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Mountain sales hit a valley

Home closings in Evergreen, Conifer drop significantly

By John Rebchook, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published October 21, 2008 at 12:05 a.m.
Updated October 21, 2008 at 10:20 a.m.

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This 3,145-square-foot house at 8045 Native Dancer Trail in Evergreen has been on the market for about 100 days. The price has dropped $10,000 - to $429,000.

Photo by Ken Papaleo / The Rocky

This 3,145-square-foot house at 8045 Native Dancer Trail in Evergreen has been on the market for about 100 days. The price has dropped $10,000 - to $429,000.

This 3,145-square-foot house at 8045 Native Dancer Trail in Evergreen has been on the market for about 100 days. The price has dropped $10,000 - to $429,000.

Photo by Ken Papaleo / The Rocky

This 3,145-square-foot house at 8045 Native Dancer Trail in Evergreen has been on the market for about 100 days. The price has dropped $10,000 - to $429,000.

This house at 8045 Native Dancer Trail in Evergreen has been on the market for about 100 days. The price is down $10,000.

Photo by Ken Papaleo / The Rocky

This house at 8045 Native Dancer Trail in Evergreen has been on the market for about 100 days. The price is down $10,000.

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For many people, buying a home in Evergreen or Conifer captures the true Colorado experience.

It's mountain living, where elk sightings are as common as graffiti-sprayed walls in Denver, but your commute to work isn't much longer than driving from southeast Aurora to Broomfield.

Yet the demand for housing in these mountain areas has dropped to unprecedented levels.

"In 35 years, I have not seen such a big demand drop off in just one year," said Tupper Briggs, who heads Tupper's Team at RE/MAX Alliance Evergreen.

There were only 49 home closings in the third quarter, a 50.5 percent drop from the 99 sales in the third quarter 2007.

In the first nine months of the year, there were 150 sales, a 38 percent drop from the 243 sales in the first three quarters of 2007.

By contrast, the number of closings in the Denver area was down 4.7 percent in the first nine months of this year.

Evergreen is being hit hard by the same forces that are hammering just about every community across the U.S., brokers said.

"It's the whole economic thing," Briggs said. "The psychology among buyers is they are are better off on the sidelines. They're afraid to buy now. They'd rather wait six months or a year from now, when prices might be lower."

Many people would be moving up in today's market if they could sell their current homes for a decent price, he said.

As real estate agent and Clear Creek County Commissioner Kevin O'Malley put it: "The situation here is that it is not a good time to sell a home, but it is a great time to buy a home."

You don't have to convince Karen Cage, of Fuller Sotheby's International Realty, that it's a buyer's market.

"It's a terrible, terrible market," as far as demand for homes, said Cage, who specializes in foothill properties, including those in Evergreen and Genesee.

"There has definitely been a huge slowdown," she said. "We just do not have enough buyers for the number of homes on the market right now.

"I do feel we are a little bit slower than some parts of Denver. I'm not feeling that Denver neighborhoods like Platt Park are having the crunch we are."

Cage said sales of homes priced over $1 million in the Evergreen/ Conifer area are especially sluggish. For the past few years, there's been a 3- to 31/2-year supply of unsold homes in that price range, but now Cage thinks there is about a four-year supply.

Builders who have constructed spec homes in the $1 million and up range are especially willing to deal, she said.

In addition to the usual economic forces, buyers who commute to downtown Denver or the Denver Tech Center from the Evergreen area are worried about the price of gasoline.

"I think everyone is thinking about ways to reduce their fuel costs," O'Malley said.

The good news, he said, is that at least so far, the sales price per square foot of homes has held its own.

But with the lack of demand, if sellers don't want their homes to languish on the market, they are going to have to do two things: Make sure their home is in perfect condition, and price it to the market, he said.

For example, a 3,145-square- foot, four-bedroom house at 8045 Native Dancer Trail has been on the market for about 100 days. Initially, it was listed at $439,000 and now is priced at $429,000.

Zillow.com estimates its value at $527,000.

Dylan Rupe, a vice president with a health care consulting company, is lucky that he works from home. The home, which he and his wife built in Evergreen 11 years ago, has postcard views.

He's glad he doesn't have to commute, and he thinks if gas hits $4.40 a gallon again, it's going to further hurt the Evergreen area market.

"Who wants to spend $20 every time you drive to work? I have noticed that bus ridership is way up," based on the lines at the bus stops.

Rupe thinks some homes in Evergreen are selling for bargain prices but that other sellers aren't lowering their price.

He said one home in his neighborhood was priced at $210,000 and went under contract quickly. The home probably would have fetched $300,000 two years ago.

Another house listed at $410,000 recently was reduced to $399,000. "But I still think it is overpriced," Rupe said.

"There's been some volatility," he said. "It's been a roller coaster. People are looking for safe investments in established neighborhoods."

The price of his home, Rupe said, probably has dropped from its peak, but he said he doesn't care; he and his wife love living in Evergreen and have no plans to sell.

rebchookj@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-5207

Home sales, average price plummet in Clear Creek County

As slow as the Evergreen/Conifer real estate market is, the small Clear Creek area is faring worse.

Most dramatically, the average price of a home sold in the third quarter in Clear Creek was a mere $205,152. That's a 51 percent drop from the average price of $421,000 in the first quarter.

However, because only a handful of homes sell each quarter in Clear Creek, it is easy for the average and median prices to be skewed by even one expensive home selling in a given quarter. In the third quarter, 23 homes sold in the county, almost 57 percent fewer than the 53 in the third quarter of 2007. The county picks up part of Evergreen, as well as Idaho Springs, Georgetown, Empire and Silver Plume.

"When you have a sample size that small, if someone comes in with a boatload of money and buys an expensive home, it will skew the numbers," said Kevin O'Malley, a Clear Creek County commissioner and a real estate agent.

Much as in the Denver-area market and across the country, homeowners aren't selling homes unless they have to. Some people are putting their homes on the market because they've lost their jobs and could face foreclosure.

That means the normal move-up buying isn't taking place, which drives down the average and median prices, O'Malley said.

And it is taking longer to sell a home in Clear Creek County. The average number of days a home is on the market jumped to 213 days.

Comments

  • October 21, 2008

    8 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    WarrenJimmyBuffett writes:

    Buy now before prices drop more!

  • October 21, 2008

    2:37 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    JustSayin writes:

    "Initially, it was listed at $439,000 and now is priced at $429,000." WOW!! A 2% drop after 100 days! Highly motivated sellers <not>.

    "Zillow.com estimates its value at $527,000." Zillow must have its head up its a@@. The house is worth what a buyer values it at.