Fantasy football: Buys, holds sells

By Michael Salfino, Special to the Rocky

Published October 14, 2008 at 1:22 p.m.
Updated October 14, 2008 at 1:22 p.m.

Text size

Photo by Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images

Dallas' Tony Romo, out for a month with a broken pinkie finger on his throwing hand, will be replaced by veteran Brad Johnson.

We've only played six weeks, and NFL quarterbacks are already dropping like flies.

Tony Romo is out a month with a broken finger. Carson Palmer's elbow injury might end his season and will definitely keep him out Week 7. Matt Hasselbeck has a back injury but also hurt his knee in Week 5 and will be sidelined Sunday, at least.

Vince Young went out, too, with a knee injury but has been replaced by a more capable game manager, Kerry Collins. So that's one of those injuries that's actually been a positive.

And, of course, the biggest event thus far in the 2008 season was Tom Brady's season-ending torn ACL in the first quarter on Kickoff Sunday.

Remember, back then, in trying to guess the impact that the Brady injury would have on the Patriots season, I looked at what happened to teams when similar QBs like Dan Marino got hurt and estimated that the Patriots would struggle to win nine games. That looked foolish the next Sunday when they walked into the Meadowlands and spanked the Jets. But how confidently would you take the over on the Patriots finishing 8-8 right now?

Romo's replacement will at least be a veteran, 40-year-old Brad Johnson, versus the ingénue that is Matt Cassel. Is Johnson the opposite extreme -- too old? Most QBs who've hung on as long as he had sported big arms (think Vinny Testaverde). Johnson's was always more of the pop-gun variety. But the supporting cast there, even with Felix Jones now also out a month with a torn hamstring, is very good.

You can't underestimate the importance of QB play in the NFL. We've been telling you all year how well teams fare when they simply beat the opponent in one stat: net yards per pass attempt (YPA), including sack yards. Last week the victors in this stat were 11-2 (the Cowboys and Cardinals tied in a game that went into overtime for real). YPA winners now stand at 66-22 (a .750 winning percentage, just below the .800 we expect).

Look at the other end of the spectrum -- teams with new starting QBs and playing much better than last year. Chad Pennington has stabilized the Dolphins and made them a threat each week. Rookie Matt Ryan has a 7.2 YPA for the 4-2 Falcons (over 7.0 is good). Jake Delhomme has returned and made the Panthers at least a playoff contender. And don't forget that Kurt Warner didn't start last year until Matt Leinart (remember him?) suffered a season-ending injury. With Leinart, the Cardinals would be, most charitably, 2-4, not 4-2.

Looking forward, let's devise a color-coded QB Injury Risk Alert System. Flashing red, at severe risk of injury, are the Bills, Patriots, Steelers and Niners. Why? Those teams in sack percentage allowed are ranked, respectively, 28th, 29th, 32nd and 31st. At orange, or high risk of injury, is Jacksonville (23rd).

At "low risk" green, are the Broncos (1st), Saints (3rd), Eagles (8th), Chargers (9th) and Colts (10th, but finally stabilized along their blocking front).

Quickly before our related player recommendations, our weekly Power Index ranks teams based on performance in the stats that most directly correlate to winning: net YPA, net third-down percentage, net red zone percentage and net interception rate. The top five, in order, Eagles, Saints, Titans, Chargers and Bears and Redskins (tied for fifth). Bottom five (worst first): Lions, Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks and Bengals.

Buy

Dolphins offense: Forget Ted Ginn, though, a boy against men in trying to beat the jam. That Wild Hog set they imported from Arkansas has helped them convert 11 of 14 red zone possessions. Pennington's performance proves play calling was a big part of his problem in New York.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers: Philip Rivers has arrived. Antonio Gates and LaDanian Tomlinson are hampered by chronic injury. Chris Chambers is fighting a bad ankle sprain. The stars are aligned for a Jackson breakout.

Hold

Colts defense: The run defense has been soft, and that usually bites you in the red zone, where running typically rules. But they have allowed TDs on just five of 15 opposing red zone possessions.

Sell

Jaguars defense: The default is always that this unit is good. But consider TDs allowed on 73 percent of red zone possessions. Jacksonville plays soft coverages even when backed up at their goal line.

Steven Jackson, Rams: His 100-plus total yards against a tough Redskins defense combined with the Rams win creates some kind of selling window. St. Louis has five red zone possessions total, about what the Cardinals average each week.

Patriots passing game: Look for any selling window on Wes Welker and Randy Moss. Matt Cassel is not only overmatched, but a huge injury risk for those aforementioned pass-protection reasons. Then maybe Troy Brown comes back and takes snaps.

Subscribe to the Rocky Mountain News