Tuesday morning QB: Stats say 4-2 misleading
By Jeff Legwold, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)
Published October 13, 2008 at 10:58 p.m.
Joe Mahoney © The Rocky
Broncos safety Marquand Manuel, covering Jaguars tight end Greg Estandia, had his back to the line of scrimmage but a hand up in Estandia's face as the ball approached. Despite the fact that neither Manuel or Marlon McCree touched Estandia before the ball arrived McCree was called for pass interference.
Do the Broncos have the right personnel to turn around their defensive shortcomings?
The Broncos are one of six teams in the league that has surrendered at least 150 points. They also are the only team with a winning record in the group.
| Team | Points allowed | Record |
| San Francisco | 167 | 2-4 |
| St. Louis | 164 | 1-4 |
| Detroit | 159 | 0-5 |
| Houston | 158 | 1-4 |
| Broncos | 154 | 4-2 |
| Seattle | 151 | 1-4 |
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Numbers do tell a story.
Good or bad, happy or sad, a collection of numbers can reveal plenty of things about plenty of things.
At least when they aren't pants-on-fire liars.
Wave a statistical flag in front of somebody who doesn't like the tale that has been told and usually there is a scowl, a dismissive wave of the hand, followed by the idea that almost anybody can make numbers say almost whatever they want.
The Broncos are 4-2 and at the moment, those are still the most important numbers swirling around them.
"We have to remember we're still leading our division," cornerback Dre Bly said. "We're still near the top of the league with our record. Not too many teams have the record we have."
Still, let's turn a page or two to see the story.
The Broncos defense ranks 24th in points allowed per game, 30th in yards allowed per game, 26th in rushing yards allowed per game, 32nd in passing yards allowed per game, 31st in rushing yards allowed per play, 25th in passing yards allowed per play and tied for 27th in interceptions.
In the 32-team collection that is the NFL, those numbers are not fine. They need a ladder to hit the middle of the pack.
And since those numbers run the gamut in plenty of categories during the first six weeks of a season, it's clear the Broncos also are keeping defensive company with a number of teams that aren't going to make the playoffs.
"We haven't been good against the pass all year. We haven't been good against the run all year . . . ," Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey said. "I keep saying it, but we've got to make plays when it's necessary to make the plays."
While the team's offense was blistering scoreboards during the first three weeks, the Broncos defense could take a certain comfort in knowing it had a rather nice net to work with while it ironed out the wrinkles of another new scheme.
But in the middle of the pile of early touchdowns, quarterback Jay Cutler had sounded a warning that "we're going to get game-planned pretty hard."
So they have. The Broncos offense has gone three consecutive games without scoring at least 30 points - in fact, three consecutive games without scoring at least 20.
The Broncos are 1-2 in those three games after Sunday's loss to the Jaguars.
That means . . .
* The Broncos' record this season when scoring at least 30 points: 3-0.
* The Broncos' record when scoring less than 30 points: 1-2.
And that is a lot to ask of an offense, to score 30, to hang four touchdowns and change on a defense week after week after week, or nobody in the locker room goes home a winner.
Routinely, because the Broncos have been so powerful on offense during Mike Shanahan's tenure as coach, Shanahan will point to offensive failings after a loss, usually focusing on turnovers such as the three the Broncos had Sunday. Or note that the Broncos didn't hold the ball long enough, didn't convert enough third downs, didn't take care of field position.
But coaches are like everyone else: They look at numbers and see what they see.
There is no question, with 38 percent of the season now in the rearview mirror, the numbers say some things about the Broncos and where they are headed.
There also is no question that they will add up to yet another disappointment if they don't work some new math soon.
BREAK IT DOWN
After already sifting through a pile of e-mails on the topic, let's take a close look at the pass-interference call late in Sunday's game.
Broncos safety Marquand Manuel, covering Jaguars tight end Greg Estandia, had his back to the line of scrimmage but a hand up in Estandia's face as the ball approached.
Manuel made no contact with Estandia beyond what appears to be a quick, light brush of Manuel's left hand near Estandia's right elbow just before the ball arrives. Broncos safety Marlon McCree then came over and hit Estandia as the ball sailed by.
Initially - guilty as charged for me as well - there looked to be a question of whether Manuel was face-guarding, a term used to describe a defender blocking a receiver's vision to the ball while not facing the ball or playing the ball himself.
Several people asked about it as well.
The trouble is, face-guarding, if there is no contact on the play, is not a penalty. It is, again with no contact by the defender, a legal technique.
The situation, straight from the NFL rules book:
Defensive player, beyond the line, has his back to the ball during a forward pass. He makes no attempt to catch it but waves his arms in close proximity to an eligible opponent, but there is no contact with receiver. Ruling: No foul. Legal action by defender.
But the Broncos were flagged for interference. Referee Bill Carollo announced McCree's name, but it was Manuel defending on the play. McCree didn't arrive until the ball had gone by.
So, a penalty? From what the video shows, likely not, unless the official on the spot believed, in real time, McCree arrived too soon.
But no matter why the flag hit the ground, the Jaguars did get two first downs after that, running the ball to kill the clock.
HOT SPOT
If the Broncos can't get some pressure on Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel, it will be a rather ominous sign for the evening because most everyone else has.
Cassel, who already has been sacked 19 times this season, is second among the league's starters in that category - only San Francisco's J.T. O'Sullivan, with 23 sacks, has been thrown for a loss more this season.
The Broncos have struggled to generate any consistent pressure on opposing passers thus far, with or without blitzing extra rushers. On Sunday, Jaguars quarterback David Garrard had several drop backs where he had enough time to go through his entire progression of receivers before choosing one.
Opposing offenses have given Elvis Dumervil plenty of attention - he has one sack this season - and the Patriots figure to as well.
But New England right tackle Nate Kaczur was taken from the field on a cart Sunday night because of an ankle injury.
GET IT DONE
The Patriots defense is small on the outside, with Ellis Hobbs (5-foot-9), former Broncos No. 1 pick Deltha O'Neal (5-11) and rookie Terrence Wheatley (5-9) - a former University of Colorado player - taking most of the plays at cornerback these days.
Sunday night, the Chargers - with players such as 6-5 Vincent Jackson and 6-5 Malcolm Floyd at receiver - made a concerted effort to push the ball down the field in the passing game.
With the Patriots playing man coverage a lot of the time in a nickel package - five defensive backs - the Chargers hit passes of 48, 49 and 59 yards in their first five possessions. Those explosive plays came at O'Neal twice and Wheatley once.
The Chargers also got a pass-interference penalty on Hobbs, worth 32 yards.
The 48-yard pass, from Philip Rivers to Jackson, came on San Diego's first play from scrimmage.
The Broncos have some injuries at receiver - Eddie Royal (ankle/foot) and Brandon Stokley (concussion) - and can't line up as much size on the outside as the Chargers did, but Brandon Marshall (6-4, 230) should have some room to work if the Broncos can run the ball well enough to keep the Patriots' safeties from helping out too much in coverage.
MATCH GAME: Patriots coach Bill Belichick vs. Broncos coach Mike Shanahan:
At times, this kind of matchup can be overblown, but these two longtime coaches might make the most adjustments of any NFL coaches on a weekly basis to find matchups they can exploit.
Also, Belichick's career lineage on defense to go with Shanahan's on offense - plus five combined Super Bowl wins - give it some intrigue.
They also have faced each other enough throughout the the years to have a pretty good library of what they've seen in the past.
In the end, it's always about execution from the guys on the field, but a good plan could mean the touchdown or field goal that makes the difference.
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October 14, 2008
1:07 a.m.
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preachersson writes:
The Bronco defense is not good. I would say it kinda socks actually. I miss the old days of the Robinson defenses. His defenses didn't really stop anybody either but they weren't built to, they were built to get turnovers and put the ball back into the offenses hands. Then it was just a matter of outscoring the opponent because the Bronco offense had more posessions than the other team.
We have that kind offense again, I believe. The defense should be blitzing the heck outta the other team to try and force mistakes.
October 14, 2008
6:09 a.m.
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denverone writes:
I was just saying that the other day. Would take hi scheme over our current one any day.
Also, if we keep throwing on 3rd and 1 and third and 2 the rest of the year, like Bates has us doing, we are screwed.
October 14, 2008
9:56 a.m.
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Coltgm56 writes:
We have NO DEFENSE!!!! It is not just about the players. Our coaching, game planning, and utilization of the talent we do have on defense is also bad. Think about this. The Cowboys will NOT win the Superbowl and Wade Phillips will be the fall guy. Bring him back as Defensive coordinator next year and that will fix our problems. Good Defense and awesome offense equals back to back Superbowl Champs again and maybe even threepeat.
GO BRONCOS!!!
October 14, 2008
10:11 a.m.
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slickwilly writes:
I think the Broncos need to blitz a lot more. It showed in the Jags game that when they blitzed they got to Garard. Why not do it more?
If you brag about having the "best" duo of corners in the game why not blitz a safety or linebacker more often and let those guys play ball?
Think back to 2005...the Broncos blitzed every play it seemed and quarterbacks had to make very quick decisions. I don't think it's a coincidence that Bailey had 10 picks that year. Hopefully, they will do more of that to the Pats and their young QB.
October 14, 2008
12:46 p.m.
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Ashley writes:
Oh come on. The fact the Broncos are 4-2 is nothing short of miraculous; they haven't played really well since they wiped the floor with Oakland on opening night, which means exactly squat. Welcome back to Earth -- what we're seeing is the truth of the Broncos, warts and all: No defense and no ability to win when the offense gets boxed in.
October 14, 2008
1:31 p.m.
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fjv1026 writes:
Wow, the stinkiness of this defense harkens back to the days of the early Elway Super Bowls when we had a "decent" offense and absolutely ZERO defense. What's up with Bly? Why does it seem like every opposing receiver is ALWAYS open? Do we have linebackers out on the field? It doesn't seem like it when we have "Insert name here" running back always breaking for large gains.
I'm almost hoping the Broncos don't make the playoffs because it's embarrassing getting beat on national TV like that.
October 14, 2008
3:02 p.m.
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Dynamicdave writes:
Ashley, then you woke up.
fjv1026, sorry man, but your last remark is what we hear from "bandwagon fans". You showed your true colors. If you're so afraid to see your team lose that you don't want them to go to the playoffs, then become a Raiders fan. You'll be right at home.
October 14, 2008
3:59 p.m.
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fjv1026 writes:
Dynamicdave....bandwagon fan?!?!? Sorry Buddy but I was born and raised in Denver and a Broncos fan all my life. To even suggest me becoming a Raiders fan is worthy of a fight. Only trying to convey frustration dude...lighten up.
October 14, 2008
4:42 p.m.
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Dynamicdave writes:
fjv1026, you're the one who spouted off the "I would rather see them lose and miss the playoffs" garbage. My statement stands. Bandwagon. And trust me on this one, you wouldn't want to fight me. You've already embarrassed your image enough.
October 14, 2008
5:08 p.m.
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Colorado_Thunder_77 writes:
This team is just going through growing pains. Lets keep in mind that Cutler may be in his third year as the year goes yet he has yet to complete two years of football at this level. He will not pass that point until after the eleventh game of this year. This year should be looked at as a seasoning year for all the youth on the team. Even Moss has started to add to his abilities, Watch how he has started to change the way he attacks his counter part. He used to just try to use speed only, now he is adding movement to his speed. Things are progressing and they could be worse... see the Raider, Lions etc... Have a little faith or follow some other team!
October 14, 2008
5:14 p.m.
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Dynamicdave writes:
Colorado_Thunder_77, exactly. People get on and off the bus,so much. As I said, they are bandwagon fans. No faith in their team. No praise. fjv1026, thinks that being born in Denver makes him a fan. It doesn't. I was born in Germany, but it doesn't mean I'm a German soccor fan. He claims to be a Broncos fan then says and I quote,: "I'm almost hoping the Broncos don't make the playoffs because it's embarrassing getting beat on national TV like that." unquote. "THAT" is NOT a fan. He doesn't understand that, yet.
October 14, 2008
6:34 p.m.
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OPETH72 writes:
I have no clue why all the fighting is occurring. The facts are supported by the numbers. The defense is terrible. The offense has struggled the last 3 games. And that has us at 4-2. When we were 3-0, everyone said don't worry, just look at the record. That repeated at 4-1. Now they are 4-2 and only a game ahead of SD (and yes, I realize the Broncos have a win over them). If the errors we are seeing do not get corrected, we will be fighting an uphill battle towards the end of the season again. I was hoping for more. I still am hoping for more. As far as "bandwagon fans", you have to be a little cautious how loosely you throw that term around. I know your a true fan, Dave, but some true fans will voice their opinions and face the truth as they see it. Let's face it, right now the people saying this is just the same old Broncos of the past couple of years could be right. I would like to believe not, but the proof of it's possibility is staring us all in the face. Don't get me wrong, there are some "bandwagon fans" out there. Some of these people, though, are just frustrated "true fans".
October 14, 2008
6:56 p.m.
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Dynamicdave writes:
OPETH72, it's all good and well to be frustrated or concerned, but to say they would rather see them not make the playoffs is absurd and "bandwagon" talk. I throw it around because it's deserved. Yes, be concerned. Yes, give insight, but blatant remarks like his are ridiculous and I feel I'm right in my opinion of him. When he starts talking about "fighting" it makes me reminisce of Raiders fans. I've mentioned the Broncos bar I frequent for the games. We, as a whole, don't stomach those type of attitudes, bringing everyone around them, down. We've had someone new to the bar, wearing Broncos jerseys, etc., sit at our table because there was a seat at the table available. During the game, our team is losing and they start yelling, "God, you guys. You s*ck!", or make remarks of "colorful" usage. We don't tolerate it and tell them they need to settle or find another table to sit at. If it continues, the bartender will ask them to settle or leave. We all get concerned but we don't complain and dog our team. We're having a good time, win or lose. Why make it worse? I've been going there for 6 years and our crowd is filled with regulars and we always invite Broncos fans, but you never know their true colors until game time. We've seen a lot of "bandwagon" fans, come and go. The ones who are still there are great people who support their team and don't get into the "doom and gloom'. Enjoy the game.
October 14, 2008
7:16 p.m.
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OPETH72 writes:
Trust me I am not defending anyone throwing violence around. I have a feeling he may have meant it figuratively, but who knows. And I understand your frustration about the playoff thing. I think it is a pretty goofy remark as well, but I believe it was said out of frustration. My point is no one can really say another person isn't a "real fan" when they don't really know the person. Myself, I bet a friend of mine's brother, from Seattle, between 20 and 50 dollars every year that the Broncos will go to the SB. He keeps getting my money, but so be it. I go in with the same thoughts every year: "this is the year". I try to find balance in my hopes. I know there are 31 other teams out there. And to be one of the last 2 standing is tough. Real tough. And someone mentioned the Dallas situation earlier. I live in the Dallas area, and I will assure you, it is chaotic and hilarious here. Unlike in Denver (as a whole, anyway) Dallas fans and media came in this season with sky high, Super Bowl or bust expectations. And they have turned into a soap opera yet again. i guess my point is that, yes, some people here seem to go overboard on the negative thing. Whether that means they are a "true fan" or not, we cannot know. They are just different. I am down about what has been going on with this team lately, but I certainly know there are 10 more games. Win 6 or more of them, and we will probably be in pretty good shape. Always hopeful, but at the same time the sporadic play that is occurring is getting old. For me, as a fan, I never want to be let down by my team. Reality is that they will let me down at times. I wear my jersey Mondays (or Tuesdays) win or lose. the fact is, no one here can tell anyone else whether they are fan or not. Well, it can be said, but it doesn't make it the truth. Just playing a little devil's advocate for the sake of balance.
October 14, 2008
7:28 p.m.
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fjv1026 writes:
Well dynamicdave, your opinion means so much to me. First of all, I was not literal in my comment about hoping the Broncos not making the playoffs. See the word "almost"? Second, a true Bronco fan would want to fight ANYONE who calls them a Raiders fan; being a true Bronco fan as you call yourself, you should know this. Third, I've been a Broncos fan my entire life; lived through the Super Bowl 12 loss, through the Steve DeBerg era and survived the Wade Phillips as head coach era. No bandwagon here. I even rooted for the Denver Nuggets during the '90s, the Rockies 93-present and the Colorado Rockies of the NHL (remember them?). It's good to know that you fiercely defend the Broncos at all costs (and I GENERALLY do too) but if you can't recognize that their defense is horrible and that they're lucky to have the record they have right now, then you're just in denial.
P.S. It's spelled soccer, not soccor. Have a great Bronco day!
October 14, 2008
7:36 p.m.
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Highcountry writes:
Blitz. Get Winborn in the game more. Homey knocks snot. Give Moss a shot. He should have motivation cuz everyone's talking trash. Welcome Elvis back in the building. Ask Marcus Thomas to backflip into the backfield. Play the ball, not the man. Give D.J. a new title: Roving Assassin. Get Champ involved. Tell the guys up front to act like men, preferably madmen. Draft a defensive end. Trade for a defensive end. Eat less, play more. Kick derriere.
October 14, 2008
7:42 p.m.
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Dynamicdave writes:
fjv1026, it's all good, but I will disagree about wanting to fight anyone who called me a Raiders fan. People can say what they want about me, but only to the point of talk. I take nothing personal. It's when they start trying to put their hands on me that problems will arise. Heck, my ex was a Raiders fan. We talked a lot of smack to each other about our teams, BUT, we always made up in the evening. (No, we didn't break up over football). I keep it in mind that it is only a game. I will say what I say, you will say what you say, and that's part of football. We have people on here who I probably truly dislike, like vector69. He made remarks about another teams member being hurt, and was happy for it. I wish injury on no player. But you and I "bantering" is fine with me, it's what makes football fun. But if you go around and threaten to fight anyone who calls you a Raiders fan then you could find yourself in a bad situation, someday. Relax, take a breath, enjoy the season, and stay calm. The Broncos will be fine.
October 14, 2008
7:45 p.m.
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Dynamicdave writes:
Highcountry, ha, ha. I like your style. Roving Assassin, eh. I like that.
October 14, 2008
7:52 p.m.
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fjv1026 writes:
Dynamic...I didn't threaten anyone. All I meant was that those were "fightin' words", kind of like in Back to the Future when Michael J. Fox wanted to fight anyone who called him "chicken" (I know, way out reference). Nothing more. I don't have to convince anyone that I'm not a bandwagon fan...the Rockies have s**ked for 14 years and the year they make it to the World Series, I'm in Iraq and didn't get to watch one single game. I literally cried. Just like when the Broncos won one "for John". I give you credit though; you got a rise out of me but the fact you're a true Broncos fan makes it all good with me.
October 14, 2008
8:06 p.m.
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Dynamicdave writes:
fjv1026, it's all good. We're good. Iraq, huh? I was in Desert Storm and also did some time down in Africa. God Bless America, God Bless Our Troops, and God Bless The Broncos.