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State water demand may boil over

Officials fret over growth, energy, climate change

Published October 9, 2008 at 12:05 a.m.

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A dramatic surge in Colorado's population, drought- stricken streams and a water- hungry energy industry make it more critical than ever that the state carefully plan its water supplies, state officials said Wednesday.

"In June, Colorado exceeded 5 million people," said Harris Sherman, executive director of the Colorado Department of Natural Resources.

"The state demographers tell us that by 2030 we'll have an additional 2.5 million people and that by 2050 another 2 million people will be here. That means we're likely to see a doubling of our population by 2050."

Sherman's comments came as the Governor's Conference on Managing Drought and Climate Risk opened in Denver.

"Where is the water going to come from to fuel all that growth?" he asked.

More than 200 water managers, scientists and elected officials gathered for the three-day event, designed to help lay out a strategy for coping with water shortages fueled by growth, climate change and energy development.

"We must be careful stewards of Colorado's water supply," said Gov. Bill Ritter. "If we fail, we fail at the peril of our children and our grandchildren."

Colorado, like other states, is hampered in its response to warming because little local data exists on the phenomenon.

But a study commissioned by the Colorado Water Conservation Board found that Colorado will warm significantly during the next 40 years, from 2.5 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit.

Summers are expected to be extremely hot, causing water demand to rise and stream flows to shrink, perhaps as much as 20 percent in such areas as the Upper Colorado River Basin.

Even as the state continues to warm, its energy industry is growing , Sherman said.

Western Slope oil shale production is expected to require billions of gallons of new water supplies. But how rain and snow patterns will change is less clear, scientists said.

Existing climate models have difficulty predicting what will occur in Colorado's unique high altitude, according to Brad Udall, director of the Western Water Assessment, which coordinated the research effort.

And because the state lies in the middle of the continent, it's difficult to discern how warming will affect weather patterns that shift and change as they move over giant land masses.

What is clear, said Joe Barsugli, a scientist at the Boulder- based Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, is that water utilities must change the way they forecast water supply and demand.

"You can't assume the past is going to be your best guide to the future," Barsugli said.

In response to the uncertainty, Colorado's largest water utilities, including Denver, Aurora and the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, are gearing up to do their own risk analysis, to examine how warming will affect the Front Range and its water supplies.

smithj@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-5474

Comments

  • October 9, 2008

    5:03 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    windbourne writes:

    Owens was a screw up and did nothing. But Ritter MUST do something about our infrastructure. He is pushing a severence tax increase, which I am fine with. But he is using the majority to benifit a small percentage of the population. If that portion that was destined for college tuition help was instead redirected into water and higher college education (i.e. directly to our universities), he or shew would benefit more.
    If we are going to pass the severance tax increase, then we should be putting together another amendment to shift that money to the right area.

  • October 9, 2008

    6:35 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    mrfxx writes:

    How many "thirsty" (like Kentucky bluegrass) plants are still in our lawn and garden stores? The fact is that for homeowner usage, the vast majority of water (over 50%) goes to lawns and gardens, which could be minimized by outlawing those plants going forward. We aren't allowed to use "grey water" (eg: the rinse water from washing machines) nor are we allowed to collect rainwater to use for watering lawns and gardens - and homeowners associations are allowed to fine folks for xeriscaping. I don't know about anyone else, but I would rather the farmers get the water - since I have no desire to eat grass.

  • October 9, 2008

    8:02 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    sunshinestate writes:

    The interior west is arid.Period. Colorado population density-the areas people actually live,is among the most dense in the country.
    You can 'plan' all you want.The entire country faces this issue. (Perhaps the "rust belt" will prove best positioned LOL)
    On the horizon is the realization of something not yet allowed for discussion: the end of 'conventional wisdom' and the end of "growth".
    No wonder the GOP VP nominee comes from a place years behind the 'lower'.

  • October 9, 2008

    10:21 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    jbowen43 writes:

    More than ever it is important that are regulators are on the ball when it comes to preventing industry and residents from contaminating our water supplies. Vote NO on 52.