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LITTWIN: Tune into tonight's 'Political Idol' debate

By Mike Littwin, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published October 2, 2008 at 12:05 a.m.

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The smart money is betting the under tonight.

That's because the Palin-Biden debate can't possibly match the hype. Let's be honest: What could?

The reason for the excitement, here and everywhere else, has little to do with the reality of politics, of course - and everything to do with reality TV. You can call it The Amazing Race. Or maybe, more appropriately, Fear Factor.

And, for whatever it's worth, enjoy the evening. Have your debate-watching party and bring the beer, popcorn and gaffe-o-meter. Because I predict that even if the debate doesn't meet the hype, you're never going to see one like it again.

We have watched Sarah Palin take the predictable celebrity arc - but in hyperspeed. We've gone all around the block, from knowing way too little about her to knowing way too much. The crash - confirmed for all on Saturday Night Live - was bound to happen, and, if we've learned anything from this, it's that everything happens faster than was thought possible even the day before.

And yet, I doubt if Sarah Palin is going to implode tonight. Her role is to go after Barack Obama, and it should be far easier for her to attack Obama's qualifications than it is for her to defend her own.

I've seen YouTube clips of her debating in her Alaska gubernatorial race, and she obviously debated well enough to win. And, besides, the bar is now set so low that all she has to do is avoid another Katie Couric meltdown - another moose-in-the-headlights moment - to survive the night.

And it's safe to assume that moderator Gwen "Age of Obama" Ifill is not going to ask her what newspapers she reads (or doesn't) and that Palin is bound to have discovered the name of at least one Supreme Court ruling by the time the debate begins.

In any case, at least half the country, including a slew of prominent conservative columnists, has decided she's not qualified for the job.

And Biden?

Ah, Biden. It's because Joe Biden is so irredeemably Joe Biden that this debate holds as much possibility as it does.

Everyone is waiting for the clean and articulate factor - the incidental insult - to surface. And that's just one danger facing Biden, who also has to worry about seeming condescending. And Democrats worry that one of Biden's inappropriately goofy smiles could send women voters - who, according to the latest polls, have been flocking to Obama - flocking back to McCain/Palin.

I doubt it. Vice presidential candidates rarely matter. See: Dan Quayle. And vice presidential debates rarely matter. See: Lloyd Bentsen.

What matters is that John McCain chose Palin. And what matters even more is why he chose her.

Hillary Clinton changed everything for women in presidential politics. She may have lost to Barack Obama, but she won her personal battle for a woman to be seen as tough enough for the job and qualified for the job. Her poll numbers improved dramatically from the start of the race, and as Clinton redefined herself, she also redefined the role of women in politics. It's easier now for many to envision a woman as president.

But Palin was the anti-Clinton choice, the affirmative-action selection, made, in large part, because of her gender.

Palin's selection was old thinking - and I don't mean because McCain is 72. It's pre-Hillary Clinton thinking, that you name a woman, as Walter Mondale did Geraldine Ferraro, simply to shake up the race or, in this case as a bonus, attract disaffected Hillary Clinton voters.

And so we're now looking toward a debate in which Biden has to worry about insulting women by, well, debating one. That will change. If this is the election of change, much of that derives from the fact there's an African-American nominee and a female nominee. Of course, we're still learning how to deal with all that. The next time - and there will be a next time - this will be much easier to navigate.

If you look at the Obama-McCain debate, it's clear that Obama won by effectively tying. That's not hard to figure out. The polls have moved Obama's way - mostly because of the financial crisis, but also because Obama caused many to see him as the Democratic candidate, and not the black Democratic candidate.

So much of this is generational. I ran into a couple of guys eating lunch at Union Station, an old railway terminal turned into a mall. They were both in their mid-30s, one a Democrat, one a Republican. But maybe because this is very Democratic St. Louis, the Republican is leaning toward voting for Obama.

We were talking about the debate, and Erik Wenberg, the Democrat, asks whether Biden will use some version of the 3 a.m. phone call against Palin.

I tell him that he probably won't - because he doesn't want to be seen as going after Palin when she's down.

"Maybe this is the male perspective," said his friend, Mark Siedband, the Republican, "but I don't think you have to treat a woman with kid gloves."

The conversation moved, as it will in this campaign, from gender to race, and Sieband said he was talking to his mother about people of her generation "who, no matter how how much they might agree with him, won't vote for Obama because they see him as black. That's just such a foreign concept to me. I can't even fathom it. You agree with a candidate about everything else but because of a demographic characteristic that has nothing to do with how he governs, you won't vote for him?

Am I naive?

Maybe. Certainly it's an issue worthy of debate.

Maybe we'll see Biden and Palin tackle the concept tonight. We can call it Extreme Makeover.

littwinm@RockyMountainNews.com

Comments

  • October 2, 2008

    7:38 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    dilligaf writes:

    I will watch it for one reason. I want to get a preview of Saturday Night Live. Tina Fey will have a hay day with this one.

  • October 2, 2008

    8:11 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    kc02 writes:

    Oh, so now the debate doesn't matter? Talk about lowering expectations, Littwin. And, so, the spin begins before the debate takes place.

  • October 2, 2008

    10:24 a.m.

    BuffDriver writes:

    (This comment was removed by the site staff.)

  • October 2, 2008

    10:25 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    Brunowolfe writes:

    I wonder if she'll be texting during the train wreck?

    GOP spin meisters already claiming foul on Gwen Ifill......

    This should suit Palin's assets well: look good on camera, no questions about HER qualifications, no redirect questions to get her back on HER qualifications, attack Obama....lol

  • October 2, 2008

    10:41 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    Brunowolfe writes:

    "Gov. Palin has more executive experience"...lol

    you mean like "comanding the National Guard during a time of war"?...or do you mean mayoring Wasilla into a $22M debt?...or do you mean the flip flop on the "bridge to nowhere" and keeping the money and building the "road to the bridge to nowhere"?...

    She was nothing more then a grandstanding play by McCain to get the Hillary-ites, had her 15 minutes of fame, and now is crashing to earth like all built up empties do. Her approval rating is sinking as fast as McCain's poll numbers....Don't you even watch the interviews she's had: she's completely vapid on anything even remotely resembling national policy or economic policy. And the comments "she's an expert on energy policy!" is laughable. Have her sit down and talk energy policy with anyone who really understands energy policy in this country and we'd get more answeres like "I'll go find 'em and get back to ya!"....

  • October 2, 2008

    12:35 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Don_Lopez writes:

    “But Palin was the anti-Clinton choice, the affirmative-action selection....”

    No, that would be Senator Obama.

  • October 2, 2008

    1:08 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    mike_littwin writes:

    don_lopez,
    How can Obama be an affirmative action choice if he was voted in - by a majority of Democrats? Palin was selected.

  • October 2, 2008

    1:50 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Don_Lopez writes:

    Again, of all these comments you chose to respond to mine.

    I’m flattered beyond words. I’m floating on air. I’m going to buy a lottery ticket ‘cause this must be my lucky day.

    It’s hard to believe that a guy who regularly uses his column as a sledgehammer would be so sensitive to an innocent and, comparatively speaking, short statement.

    Politics is about perception. I simply expressed a perception that I’m sure others share.

    And to suggest that Senator Obama can’t be an affirmative action choice because Democrat voters say so, is, well, stretching credibility.

    Now let me ask you something: If, as you continue to maintain, “Vice presidential candidates rarely matter”, why do you continue to sneer at Governor Palin?

    Wouldn’t your column be better utilized to explain to Palin-esque folks like me what this here "bailout" is all about and what should be done. And please don’t tell me you don’t know enough about it, that never stopped you from writing about sports.

  • October 2, 2008

    1:51 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    LoneTreeLady75 writes:

    I like to call Palin the "default selection." Had Obama chosen Hilary, Palin would still be an unknown.

  • October 2, 2008

    2:18 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    gary writes:

    Too bad Obama missed his chance with Hillary.

    So now all the Dems, and Demwitted Littwin can do is try and call Palin an affirmative action choice.

    She has more qualifications than the rockstar Obama.

    She did not use....not voting 130+ times.

    Maybe that is what Obama needs to do in this election.....
    NOT VOTING

    NObama this NOvember NOw we kNOw why

    Nuff Said!

  • October 2, 2008

    2:39 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    HopiMedicineMan writes:

    Littwin--Working so hard against the hackneyed phrase generally accomplishes the hackneyed view. These Rocky columnists are bugs trapped in a jar with holes poked in the lid. Workers of the News unite, you have nothing to lose but your jar.

  • October 2, 2008

    3:05 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    conniesz writes:

    In many respects, Joe Biden is what every woman wants in a man - a really great father who stepped up in the worst of times to take care of his kids.

    Women prefer Biden to Palin by a large margin - so much for attracting the Hillary supporters. Palin garners a lot of interest from men, but in the end they can see (even if they won't admit it) that she would be a complete train wreck if McCain dies in office.

    I don't think much will come of tonight's debate - Joe will probably talk too much and Sarah will not know what she's talking about and everyone will have a good laugh and then get back to McCain and Obama.

    And, Obama will eventually win the election in November by a very small margin... and that will be that.

  • October 2, 2008

    5:39 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    HopiMedicineMan writes:

    My hair cutter was for Hillary. Now she's for Sarah. That shoots your theory all to hell.

  • October 2, 2008

    6:55 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    arcus writes:

    conniesz, I didn't know that every women longed for a two time plagerist.

  • October 3, 2008

    1:35 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    dirkle writes:

    Thanks for the column. I had to laugh at the reference to a "moose-in-the-headlights"

    Anyone looking for a little humor in the vein of "Sarah-speak" -
    here is a funny and great little piece on Palinese by George Saunders -
    http://www.newyorker.com/humor/2008/0...

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