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Fantasy football: Week 13 stock watch

By Mark P. Stopa

Published November 26, 2008 at 5:47 p.m.
Updated November 26, 2008 at 5:47 p.m.

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Why is Terrell Owens an upgrade but Randy Moss is not? How can you play the fantasy matchups to ensure that you have a Happy Thanksgiving? For answers to these questions and more, here are my recommendations heading into Week 13.

Upgrades

Leon Washington, RB, Jets: Throughout the year, I’ve considered Washington a decent play in a good matchup, e.g., against the Chiefs or Broncos. But he's not someone who gets enough touches to be considered a reliable fantasy play. Last week, though, he scored twice even in a bad matchup, bringing his season TD total to seven. That might not sound like much, but it’s an extraordinary statistic for a backup running back, especially one who does not get goal-line touches. When is the last time a third-down, scat-back type of player found the end zone eight times (seven TDs and a two-pointer) on only 59 carries and 31 receptions? Even with those limited touches, Washington is 48th in the NFL in scoring, and that includes kickers! Again, I usually don’t like guys with such limited touches, but Washington has proven that he is flex-worthy regardless of the matchup.

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: Justin Fargas is still getting most of the carries, but McFadden looked healthy last week and got two goal-line touchdowns. The Raiders love to run, so in good matchups (like this week against the Chiefs), you can start McFadden with confidence.

Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys: Before last week, Owens failed to amass 40 yards receiving in five straight games. What changed last week? It’s not just the 75-yard touchdown. That was nice, of course, but even if we were to ignore that, Owens still would have had 6 catches for 138 yards (good for a 23-yard average). That stat, even more than the long touchdown, tells me that Tony Romo is back, healthy, and throwing deep again. Expect Owens to remain an elite receiver for the rest of the season.

Lance Moore, WR, Saints: The Packers pass defense was arguably the best in the league heading into the Monday-night contest against the Saints. If you didn’t know that beforehand, though, you sure wouldn’t have thought it by watching the game. With Drew Brees throwing to him, Moore looked like a Pro-Bowl receiver. I doubt he makes it to Hawaii, but it’s time to stop considering Moore a matchup play and to insert him in your starting lineup every week. Check out his game log – since he entered the Saints starting lineup in Week 3, he’s had a good or great game every week except two. That’s what I call an every-week starter.

No change

LenDale White, RB, Titans: If you watch SportsCenter, you saw White’s postgame rant to reporters complaining about how he was only on the field for three plays against the Jets. I saw it, too, so I know White hasn’t been getting much playing time. So why is he not a downgrade? Well, nothing about White has really changed – he’s a slow, fat guy who scores short-yardage touchdowns against bad teams. Last week, he faced a good team (the Jets), so of course he struggled. This week, on the other hand, the stars are all aligned for White to perform well. The Titans have been struggling to run the ball, so Jeff Fisher will ensure that they re-establish the run. They just suffered their first loss, so they will be mad. And most importantly, they get to play a terrible Lions team on Thanksgiving. I’d be shocked if White does not score this week and would not be at all surprised to see him have his best game of the year. Start White as a matchup play this week and you will have a Happy Thanksgiving. Just don’t count on similar production against good teams.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: Owens was an upgrade, so why isn’t Moss, coming of a huge, 3-TD game? Well, Owens’ value changed because Romo is back in the lineup, and it’s clear that Owens is an elite fantasy receiver when he has a QB who can throw to him. With that in mind, look at Moss – what changed for him last week? Sure, Matt Cassel is playing better. But I attribute Moss’ huge game to the Dolphins stubbornly and stupidly playing single-coverage all game. After all, Cassel had a great game the prior week, too, and Moss was rather ordinary. But here’s the key: after what Moss did last week against single coverage, there’s no way he sees that again this year. And if you don’t think that matters, check out his game log from this year (most of which included games where he was double-covered). It’s good, but not elite. Or go pull out the tapes from last year’s playoffs, when teams double-covered him all over the field and he disappeared (no catches over 18 yards). Then check out the upcoming schedule – a matchup against the Steelers this week does not bode well. You have to start Moss if you own him, but I don’t think his value went up after last week – it was just one good game against single-coverage. To put it differently, if you can get Anquan Boldin for Moss in a trade, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Downgrades

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: Tomlinson teased fantasy owners with a good game against the Saints a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, that now looks like an aberration. Tomlinson’s burst is gone and so are the explosive plays. He’s become more of a plodder – similar to what Edgerrin James was doing last year or, dare I say it, what Shaun Alexander did near the end. Tomlinson may not fall off a cliff as rapidly as Alexander did, but therein lies the problem; in some ways, it would almost be better if Tomlinson fell off a cliff. Instead, he is slowly declining, leaving fantasy owners hoping for a return to his past glory only to constantly be disappointed. Don’t fall into that trap and recognize Tomlinson for what he is – an aging veteran who is a useful fantasy player on a good Chargers offense but nothing near the fantasy stud that he was in recent seasons.

Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks: I was expecting good things for the Seattle offense once Matt Hasselbeck came back. Let’s just say I’m disappointed. It seems like Hasselbeck is still hurt, and that limits the ceiling of all of the Seahawks skill players. Even worse for Jones is that Maurice Morris looked like a feature back last week, so who cares if Jones is technically starting against the Cowboys. It’s time to cut bait with Jones in all but deep leagues.

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