Fantasy football: Week 12 stock watch

By Mark P. Stopa, Special to the Rocky

Published November 19, 2008 at 11:50 a.m.
Updated November 19, 2008 at 11:50 a.m.

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Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

Colts running back Joseph Addai has shown he can take advantage of the team's soft upcoming schedule and has been upgraded in fantasy football this week.

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One thing that fantasy owners overlook this time of year is weather -- mainly wind. If your players are playing outdoors, especially in the Northeast, make sure you check the weather forecast Sunday morning. Quarterbacks, receivers and kickers tend to struggle in bad weather conditions (e.g., any winds over 20 MPH). If you have two matchups that seem close, don’t be afraid to make weather the deciding factor. The same goes if you’re evaluating a trade and one guy plays in a dome and the other plays in the Northeast. Weather is a factor for the first time in some of the following Week 12 recommendations.

Upgrades

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts: I called Addai a “no change” last week, despite his recent struggles, based on the Colts' improvements on offense and their soft upcoming schedule. Now that Addai has shown he can take advantage of that schedule, his stock is way up (ahead of Brian Westbrook's, for example).

Derrick Ward, RB, and Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants: The Giants proved they have the best offensive line in football by manhandling the front seven of the Ravens, the league’s best rushing defense. Even with starter Brandon Jacobs healthy, Ward and Bradshaw both average more than 5 yards per carry and are worth owning and even starting, depending on the matchup and the size of your league. Now that Jacobs has a knee injury that may sideline him this week, Ward and Bradshaw merit significant upgrades.

Dustin Keller, TE, Jets: Two weeks ago I participated in a midseason draft and took Keller in the 20th and final round; he was the 24th TE taken. Now if I did a similar draft, I’d unquestionably draft Keller as a top-10 TE, probably top 5. It’s not just that Keller had a random TD or two; he’s become Brett Favre’s favorite target. He didn’t score last week against the Pats, but he was targeted in the end zone and was the go-to guy in overtime. If you don’t own an elite weapon like Antonio Gates, then Keller is better than who you are playing.

Matt Bryant, K, Bucs: The Bucs have been struggling in the red zone all season, and losing Earnest Graham for the year certainly won’t help that. Plus, all of Bryant’s remaining games are either at home in Florida, where weather won’t be a factor, or in a dome. It's time to start treating Bryant as an elite option at kicker.

No change

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: There were three things working against Rivers last week: bad weather, a sloppy field and a really good Steelers defense. With three straight home games against mediocre defenses, then a roadie against the Chiefs, Rivers won’t have any of those problems anytime soon.

Shaun Hill, QB, 49ers: Hill deserves an upgrade in the sense that he’s the established starter for the Niners. But if you’re expecting him to duplicate last week’s stats on a regular basis, there’s reason to be skeptical. Last week’s opponent, the Rams, have been lying down against everyone. Plus, Frank Gore is clearly the center of this Niners offense.

Steve Slaton, RB, Texans: While his stats against the Colts looked really good., notice that Ahman Green got both short-yardage TDs. Before the game, Gary Kubiak voiced his concerns that Slaton was “wearing down,” and it seems that Kubiak decided to keep him fresh by giving Green the goal-line touches. The Texans' upcoming schedule is OK. Hold, don't buy.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: I’m sticking with this call despite two more TDs last week. On a struggling Jaguars offense, I doubt Jones-Drew keeps getting those opportunities week after week. The schedule is far from favorable, too, including a matchup this week against a Vikings defense far better against the run than the pass.

Downgrades

Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles: That’s three straight matchups where Westbrook has struggled, including two games against inferior opponents (Seahawks and Bengals). Perhaps Westbrook is not 100 percent healthy. Maybe Andy Reid is just a dunce for not calling more rushing plays. But three straight poor games merit a downgrade, and the chances for a bounce-back are far from ideal against the Ravens.

Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals: My concern here is not just that Hightower’s stats have suffered. Rather, backup J.J. Arrington was used in numerous goal-line packages last week, scoring one TD rushing and another receiving. While those came out of the shotgun, an enormous part of Hightower’s value derived from short-yardage touchdowns.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills: I expected Evans to struggle against the Patriots two weeks ago, as they always seem to shut him down (which is something to keep in mind if you’re still playing in Week 17). But Evans was also invisible last week against a Browns team that had just been lit up by the Broncos passing game. Worse yet, after three early interceptions, it seemed like Trent Edwards was afraid to throw the ball downfield to Evans. Most of Evans’ value comes from downfield throws. And the weather in Buffalo will get worse.

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