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Fantasy football: By the numbers

By Michael Salfino, Special to the Rocky

Published November 11, 2008 at 9:55 a.m.
Updated November 11, 2008 at 9:55 a.m.

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After 10 weeks, we're done with the byes, which means everyone has played the same number of games. This gives our stats a satisfying symmetry, even though our focus all year has been on qualitative numbers rather than quantitative ones.

The top of the Stat Power Rankings features the Giants in a league of their own and then a drop down to a number of other teams vying for consideration as serious contenders: the Ravens, Eagles, Bucs and, yes, finally, the Titans.

But I can't recall another year when the overall rankings, which equally weigh four of the team stats that most strongly correlate to winning, varied so significantly from the one stat that is most important in our Fab Four -- net YPA (yards per pass attempt). The other ones are noteworthy in their own right -- net red zone possessions, net third-down percentage and net interception rate. But my shorthand way to assess real team strength irrespective of record is to merely look at net YPA.

Consider that teams that just win this category (adjusting, of course, for sacks) are 108-36. That's a .750 winning percentage, and even that great rate is a little short of what we expect (about .800).

If we just look at net YPA and ignore everything else, then the Steelers (1st), Chargers (2nd), Packers (3rd) and Panthers (4th) all move up. Again, I've never had another season where not one of the top four YPA teams were in the top five of my overall Stat Power Rankings. Falling well back if you look only at net YPA would be the Ravens (18th), Bucs (19th) and Titans (13th). The Patriots (25th) and Jets (20th) perform worse than you'd expect considering actual records, but my full Index doesn't like either of them much anyway (11th and 19th overall, respectively).

The Panthers were one of three teams that won in Week 10 despite having a lower YPA than their opponent. The Raiders beat them 2.9 yards to 2.0. There were six interceptions thrown in that game (four by the winning Panthers) and seven sacks. This is my nomination for the worst passing game in modern NFL history, especially when you consider that weather was in not a factor.

One other stat observation before we get into some individual player recommendations. It bugs me every week that my NFL red zone stat feed is sorted by efficiency by default. This creates the impression that this year the Colts (76 percent TDs) and Steelers (71 percent) are the best red zone teams. But that's a distinction earned by the teams that get into the red zone the most. Consider that the Cardinals (44 red zone possessions) and Giants (43) are so much more prolific at driving the ball than the Colts (25) and Steelers (24). Who cares if Arizona and New York are 11th and 18th, respectively, in efficiency: The battles are less consequential when you've already won the war by living inside your opponent's 20-yard line.

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Giants running game: Right now, it's arguably the best team running game ever. You have three guys averaging more than 5 yards per carry (Ahmad Bradshaw, 5.7, Derrick Ward, 5.5, and Brandon Jacobs, 5.3). The 1972 Dolphins had Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris over 5.0 per carry, but Jim Kiick was just 3.8. The Giants are on pace for 2,704 rushing yards, well below the record by the 1978 Patriots (3,165), but that New England team gets an asterisk for having a running QB (Steve Grogan, 571 rushing yards).

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons: When you have your team sixth in sack-adjusted YPA in your rookie year, you are on a Hall of Fame path. I'm not saying Ryan is going to get there, of course. But it's not possible to start a career any more impressively than has this Boston College alum.

Jets offense: It is top heavy with the outbursts against the Cardinals and Rams (103 points). But Gang Green has made 40 red zone trips, which is a close third behind the aforementioned Cardinals and Giants. That's some fast company.

Offenses with sound pass protection: Kudos to the Titans, Broncos and Saints, who allow sacks on 2.2 percent of attempts or less.

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Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens: I've been given some grief for not showing Flacco more love. The rookie is a big improvement over Kyle Boller and the washed-up Steve McNair we saw in 2007. But Flacco is in no way comparable to Ryan because Flacco's Ravens are bottom third (21st) in sack-adjusted YPA. That's typical rookie stuff.

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Offenses with poor pass protection: The Niners, Steelers and Lions all get sacked over 11 percent of attempts. That's like turning every defense into a 50-sack team. And when you face a real 50-sack team like the Steelers did against the Eagles and Giants, it's Murder She Wrote.

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