Go to the mobile version of this Web site.

Login | Contact Us | Site Map | Paid archives | Electronic edition | Subscription Questions | Extras

Home › News › Local News

Drier climate coming sooner, report says

By Bill Scanlon, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published May 27, 2008 at 12:17 p.m.
Updated May 27, 2008 at 11:43 p.m.

Text size  

More Local News

More stories »

By the time today's grade-school children are in their 30s, the western United States could be a lot drier than it is now, with more wildfires, more bark beetle infestations, fewer crops and an economy disrupted by climate change, according to a new report.

It is likely that the Earth will experience a faster rate of climate change in the 21st century than seen in the last 10,000 years, said the report, "The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources and Biodiversity."

Overseen by the United States Climate Change Science Program, the USDA and a dozen other federal agencies, the report's principal authors include Peter Backlund of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder.

Less rain for Colorado

"Colorado is right in the bull's-eye for what looks like decreased runoff in the future," Backlund said. "Almost all the models seem to agree that we will have 10 percent to 25 percent less runoff by about 2040."

Skiing could suffer as the snow line moves higher up the mountain and farther north, Backlund said. "But I'd be a lot more worried about ski conditions in Taos and Telluride than in Aspen or Vail."

"We're worried about the relationship between the die-offs from pine beetles and decreased water availability," Backlund said. "That and increased incidents of fire."

The average temperature might rise just 1 or 2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2033 - 4 to 7 degrees by the end of the century, according to the report.

At first glance, warmer temperatures would seem to bring a longer growing season. But while global warming means more rain to much of the eastern and southern United States, the climate models foresee less rain for Colorado and the Southwest.

And those rises in temperature mean the pests will last longer, too.

Backlund, director of research relations at NCAR, praises water managers for using water more efficiently, especially with irrigated farmland.

Climbing temperatures will mean more evaporation in the soils. So even if there is more rain in parts of the United States, the crops will need more water to sustain them.

Impact faster than projected

Backlund said that like a lot of people, he would go back and forth on climate change, fluctuating between being being quite worried and not being too worried at all.

But when he and the other scientists started compiling the models and tallying the effects on agriculture, forests and the like, "It was really kind of daunting."

The impacts of climate change "seem to be occurring faster than we projected just five or 10 years ago."

"We're seeing things happening now that we didn't think would happen before 2030 or 2040," Backlund said.

"I'm not saying we can't manage it - but it's going to be a race between efficiency, population growth and climate change."

Comments

  • May 28, 2008

    3:43 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    windbourne writes:

    Ah, well, I am sure that folks like hank/sasquatch have NOTHING to be concerned about. After all, this is coming from the feds and they could not possibly be correct. And all of those melting glaciers are not happening either.

  • May 28, 2008

    1:01 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Lonestar writes:

    Wait a minute, the UN IPCC just announced that we won’t see any warming for the next ten years due to natural causes, and available data shows there has been no warming the previous ten years either. Didn’t we just have one of the coldest winters globally on record? The Canadian Ice Service just reported that ice in sections of the arctic has thickened back to levels not seen in 40 years because of one bad winter. Statistics from NOAA show that weather models more than 5 days out only have an accuracy rate of 10%. Satellite imagery reveals that Antarctic ice is actually growing on balance. Global warming climate models can’t even show what has actually happened in the past. Studies have shown that atmospheric CO2 concentrations were much higher than they are now when the Earth was in an ice age! All of these reports and all of the money spent has really only revealed one thing, we have no idea what the climate is going to look like in the future.

  • May 28, 2008

    2:31 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    ColoNative writes:

    Projections serve only two purposes - create paranoia and sell advertizing space. When the media has completely exhausted all their credibility on this issue, then they will find another chicken little story on which to hang their fiscal futures. Examine old newspapers. You will see the trends come alive - trends that sold advertizing and created a frenzy amongst those who love to blame others for their non-problems.