Report: Global warming hitting West hardest
Paul Foy, Associated Press
Originally published 05:44 p.m., March 27, 2008
Updated 05:44 p.m., March 27, 2008
SALT LAKE CITY — Around the same time the American West started heating up five years ago, Colorado started losing its lodgepole pine forests to a beetle infestation.
"The population built up rapidly and exploded. It takes out the mature trees," said Ingrid Aguayo, an entomologist for the Colorado State Forest Service, which estimates that about 60 percent of the lodgepole pines have turned red and brown.
"Now we're seeing a new carpet of forest coming up," she said.
Scientists can't be certain global warming is to blame, but the evidence is damning. Now, a new calculation of government temperature data shows that over the past five years, average annual temperatures in the Colorado River basin — the heart of the West — have risen by 2.2 degrees, or about twice as fast as the global rate.
The report is from the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization, a coalition of local governments, businesses and others working to protect the climate, and the advocacy group Natural Resources Defense Council. It says the West is heating up faster than any other region in the continental U.S. with more catastrophic wildfires among the consequences.
"It's already begun. We are already seeing the effects, and scientists are telling us it's going to get markedly worse," said Stephen Saunders, the organization's president in Louisville.
Climate change researchers are hesitant to ascribe a single cause for the warming, but they agree it's happening.
"By and large, there is a very detectable warming in this region," said Martin Hoerling, a meteorologist at the NOAA-funded Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder. His own research suggests the West could heat up a lot more, possibly by 5 degrees by the midpoint of the century, depending on the level of greenhouse-gas emissions.
The report, "Hotter and Drier: The West's Changed Climate," crunched numbers kept by NOAA's Western Regional Climate Center in Reno, Nev.
"That sounds about right," the center's acting director, Kelly T. Redmond, said.
"It's been warming in this region for the past 35 years, after a cool period in the 1970s. We've been decidedly above average. You could put an exclamation on it," he said.
Redmond has made calculations similar to the report's 2.2-degree rise, which has meant fewer subzero nights to control the population of mountain pine beetles devastating Colorado's lodgepole pines.
At first, he said, "I didn't know whether to trust these numbers or not." They came from a network of about 2,000 thermometers across the West — from airports to weather hobbyists' backyards — recording lows and highs since the late 1800s.
But other recent patterns — earlier snowmelt in spring, earlier lilac and honeysuckle blooms — convinced Redmond the recordings were accurate.
"In 100 years, this is the largest change we've seen, so it catches your attention," he said. "We can't definitely attribute it to human causes, but my suspicion is at least part of it is due to climate change." The West also is in the grip of a decade-long drought, which tends to raise temperatures, said Hoerling, who likewise is hesitant to attribute the warming of the West solely on carbon emissions. He believes cyclical changes in sea-surface temperatures also are to blame.
The consequences, though, are plain to see. In Yellowstone National Park, aerial photographs show vast orange-needled forests of whitebark pine that were green just three years ago. Yellowstone grizzly bears depend heavily on the fatty seeds of the whitebark pine for food. Colorado's signature aspen stands also are drying up, leaving them vulnerable to fungus.
The Rocky Mountain snowpacks that melt earlier in spring leave less water for summer irrigation and heat up trout streams.
Glaciers, which provide consistent stream flows during summer, are melting. The glaciers at Montana's Glacier National Park could melt entirely by 2022, U.S. Geological Survey researchers have calculated.
Montana, Idaho and Wyoming had their hottest Julys on record last summer, while Phoenix had 47 days of 109 degrees or hotter, according to the National Weather Service.
Powell and Mead reservoirs, meanwhile, are half-empty. The reservoirs collect water from the Colorado River, supplying much of the booming Southwest. If they keep drying up, it could shred the Colorado River Compact of 1922, an agreement that allocates fixed amounts of water among seven states.
The upper basin states have the water, but lower basin states including California have senior water rights — a crisis in the making, said Bradley H. Udall, director of the Western Water Assessment Cooperative at the University of Colorado.
"There's an old saying, 'I'd rather be upstream with a shovel and a ditch that downstream with a decree,"' he said.
Comments
Posted by rightwingnut on March 27, 2008 at 5:59 p.m. (Suggest removal)
What does global warming have to do with the current pine beetle infestation? This is a natural cycle, not connected with g.w.
Posted by coloradolifer on March 27, 2008 at 6:16 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Hate to break it to you, Paul, but pine beetles have been boring into lodgepoles here in Colorado much longer than five years. In fact, the infestation in Summit County started about 30 years ago. And as for subzero nights, we see plenty of them in South Park. I lost count of the number of minus 30 nights we had this winter, and minus 40 is not unheard of here... which makes me wonder: How cold was it in these parts BEFORE global warming?
Posted by American100 on March 27, 2008 at 6:37 p.m. (Suggest removal)
This story is bogus. As usual the RMN doesn't worry about facts.
The 2 posters ahead of me are correct.
I can tell you Grand County has some serious beetle kill and also 40 below nights during the winter.
No sign of global warming there.
Posted by MO_Listener on March 27, 2008 at 6:38 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Try some DDT and you will not have any further problems with the beetles. Global warming has nothing to do with the beetles. Environmentalists are the friends of the beetles.
Posted by PajamaPulitzer on March 27, 2008 at 6:49 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Screw you RMN for printing this tripe. Place the blame for the beetle infestation where it belongs; squarely on the shoulders of environmentalists who never want a flame or an ax to touch a single tree.
Posted by HolierThanThou on March 27, 2008 at 6:54 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Didn't take long for dumb and dumber to deny the facts.
Unlike morons, thermometers don't have a political agenda. They just reports the facts. The average temperature of the Earth is warming. Certain regions experience very little average warming. Others like ours, are entering into what is probably the beginning of desertification.
While this past winter in South Park was typical, winters all over Park County and surrounding region have been extremely mild for the past two decades. Evidently, coloradolifer has only been here a short time because he doesn't remember the wildfires around the turn of the century. These were caused by longest and most extreme drought in the recorded history in our region.
Climate models of human-caused climate change from greenhouse gas emissions predicted this trend back in the 1980s. The models also indicate more dramatic fluctuations where we will have extremely wet years with heavy snow interspersed with distressingly dry and warm weather.
One of the other tell-tales is the average day-night temperature difference. Average night-time temperature drops in our region are getting smaller. Nights are becoming slightly warmer because the infrared transmission of heat into outer space during the night is reduced by the tiny increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Instead of allowing the heat to escape, the atmosphere absorbs more of it and then radiates it back down. This is much like the warming effect of night-time cloud cover over the mountains. Clear nights tend to be colder.
Global warming is supported by a tremendous body of science and measurements. Denying it only proves the denier to be an ignoramus, probably one who listens to and believes a lot of crap from conservative commentators.
Posted by coloradolifer on March 27, 2008 at 7:15 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Operative phrase is "recorded history," holier. By the way, I've been here all my life; saw the fires, saw the drought and am looking at four feet of snow in my back yard today. People older that I who have been here longer tell me this is what winter was like before the drought, which by my calculations lasted around 14 years.
"One of the other tell-tales" I can tell YOU about is the leaf fossil a friend of mine found in, lo! South Park! It looks very, very, VERY much like an avocado leaf. Hmmmmm. But maybe that's just conservative crap.
Posted by mtnsrfer on March 27, 2008 at 7:20 p.m. (Suggest removal)
P.P. is correct. Fire is the natual enemy of the pine beetle. But we can't lose any 8 million doller houses can we. When the tinder box called Colorado explodes in flames the pine beetles will be gone. Maybe then people won't be so fast to develope every mountain in Colorado.
Posted by gary on March 27, 2008 at 9:46 p.m. (Suggest removal)
They came from a network of about 2,000 thermometers across the West — from airports to weather hobbyists' backyards — recording lows and highs since the late 1800s.
Gee...how many airports were there in the 1800's?? I am sure there were plenty of weather hobbyists around in the 1800's also??
Let's see my great uncle homesteaded in Colorado in 1879 and he never told me about the airports and weather hobbyists being here with him!!
More "great" reporting by the RMN staff. RMN news you can count on to be twisted to fit thier means.
Nuff Said
Posted by alwho44 on March 27, 2008 at 10:09 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Geeze it the same chicken littles who saw commie's on every street corner. They bought bomb shelters in the 60's and now they are hoping global warming wipes us out before wall street does. They never in their life saw a glass half full. My gas bill for the house says they are wrong. I've been saying all winter who took my global warming I want it back.
If the earth is like a billon years old is four years a statistically valid sample?
Naw I think it's all the aliens from area 51.
Yes there are too many cars, houses and people and if the Shaker's don't make a comeback we are in big trouble.
Posted by italiaboy9 on March 27, 2008 at 10:28 p.m. (Suggest removal)
More Global Warming BS! Like everyone else has said above, we need some blazes...big time!! I've always thought myself to be a defender of the environment...but more and more I am seeing moronic environmentalists meddling where they don't belong. Hell, I might take a box of matches up to 'dem mountains soon!
Why is it when I was in school, I was taught about global cooling. That was in the 70s. Interesting how it all turned from cooling to warming. Hmmmm...carbon tax anyone? That Al Gore...when he created the Internets and the blogesphere, that must have caused all the phone lines to heat up and so did our weather. Damn him!
Posted by ManginoTorreta on March 28, 2008 at 12:09 a.m. (Suggest removal)
"Evidently, coloradolifer has only been here a short time because he doesn't remember the wildfires around the turn of the century. These were caused by longest and most extreme drought in the recorded history in our region."
Actually, the longest and most extreme drought in the history of our region was during the Dust Bowl period.
"Nights are becoming slightly warmer because the infrared transmission of heat into outer space during the night is reduced by the tiny increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."
This is classic misdirection rhetoric in order to create the impression that carbon dioxide is the primary driver of climate change (which changes constantly in spite of the desires of progressive social engineers to determine otherwise). The fact is that carbon dioxide is a very small percentage of total greenhouse gases; it is wator vapor that makes up the vast majority of total greenhouse gases. You won't hear the progressive left arguing about this because agitating to "decrease wator vapor emissions" is as lunatic as it sounds.
The big concern, as always in the arid West, is how much water will be available every year, and from the looks of this year's snowfall, it's going to be quite a bit. Unfortunately, because the Colorado River compact is so outdated (and contrary to Foy's analysis, the water is not "allocated in fixed amounts to seven states"; California is entitled to 4.5 million acre feet a year, Mexico 1.5 million. The rest of the states SHOULD get a fixed amount but Cali and Mexico are the only ones who get all their water regardless of the year to year streamflow. Foy clearly got his info on the compact from Wikipedia), it might not even matter because we've had so much growth in the region. Couple that with the already massive agricultural allocations and the ethanol boondoggle, how many wet years we have will likely be irrelevant in the long run.
Posted by HolierThanThou on March 28, 2008 at 7:34 a.m. (Suggest removal)
The Dust Bowl was caused by a drought centered due east of the Rockies, which was why so many Okies were headed west. It was made worse by the farming practices and the absence of modern irrigation.
ManginoTorreta is the true user of misdirection. Humans are not producing more water. We will if we run all our cars on hydrogen. Then the hydrogen will come from water to be converted back into water. So, the global atmospheric water budget will remain balanced. At least, it won't be changed because we're using hydrogen as fuel. Ocean warming resulting from long term greenhouse gas emissions might do some interesting things to that.
What is at issue is the global atmospheric carbon budget. We pull fossil fuels from the ground, burn them, and put the carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Unlike water, we're increasing overall concentrations in the atmosphere because we're not absorbing back into solid form. Biomass is an example of solid form such as trees and crops, even animals such as writers who choose to believe nonsense instead of science absorb a little carbon with their bodies. But they negate that by excessively burning hundreds of time their own weight in fossil fuels every year without providing sufficient means to reabsorb it in a solid form.
Posted by Scott on March 28, 2008 at 8:13 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Hate to tell you Paul, but the forests have been grossly mismanaged (i.e. fire suppression) and are overgrown, hence the pine beetle infestation along with a whole bunch of other ills.
Scott
Posted by ManginoTorreta on March 28, 2008 at 11:03 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Holierthanthou (a more appropriate name you could not have picked) you do realize that there is a difference in the chemical properties between water and water vapor, correct? And that their concentrations have different effects on the atmosphere? Your assertions of an unchanging balance by disingenuously defining it in terms of a nonexistent "permanent balance" is undermined in your own post when you imply apocalypse if the oceans warm. What happens is that water turns into--surprise!--wator vapor. If it doesn't matter if there is more "water" in the air, then why imply otherwise? Next you'll be telling us that the earth is warming up because there are 6 billion people giving off body heat.
Your stubborn refusal to acknowledge that wator vapor is also a greenhouse gas, and one that has far more effect on the earth's atmosphere than CO2 could ever hope to have simply due to the sheer disparity of each in the atmosphere, is telling. After all, progressives can't very well agitate to control and regulate human behavior if they blamed warming on a greenhouse gas that acts far out of proportion to the scope of human activity.
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