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KRIEGER: Broncos must be gunning for great draft

By Dave Krieger, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published March 2, 2008 at 6:19 p.m.

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On the third day of the NFL's free agency period, the Broncos rested.

Of course, they mostly rested the first two days, too, so they may not be on the seven-day plan.

So far, we can draw the following conclusions:

* Pat Bowlen meant it when he said cash was an issue. As I understand it, their biggest splash in free agency so far is the guy who hosts The Colbert Report on Comedy Central.

* Mike Shanahan meant it when he said the Broncos were more talented than their 7-9 record indicated. If Bill Parcells ("You are what your record says you are") represents the school of NFL realism, perhaps Shanahan represents the school of surrealism.

* Bowlen meant it when he said chemistry, not talent, was the problem last year. Meet your scapegoats for the '07 season: Todd Sauerbrun, Javon Walker and Ian Gold. And please hold the door for them on their way out.

The biggest surprise so far is that the Broncos have shown no urgency to improve their defense after finishing 28th in the NFL in points allowed. Boss Bailey, Champ's younger brother, may or may not have been in town Sunday. Bailey would be an upgrade over Nate Webster at strong- side linebacker, but his Detroit numbers do not suggest a difference-maker.

Other than that, they've re-signed Ebenezer Ekuban and John Lynch, a pair of veterans on the downhill side.

The theory here must be that the defensive deficiencies were mostly Jim Bates' fault. The former assistant head coach/defense is out the door, so, like Sauerbrun, Walker and Gold, he can be loaded up with baggage from '07.

The Broncos point out that they gave up 187 rushing yards per game for the first five weeks of the season, using Bates' scheme. After that, defensive coordinator Bob Slowik gained influence. Over the final 11 weeks, the Broncos surrendered 122 rushing yards per game.

Based on this progress, Shanahan believes essentially the same defense will per- form much better under Slo- wik than it did under Bates.

As a point of comparison, the Packers made exactly the opposite bet, switching from Slowik to Bates as their defensive coordinator between the 2004 and 2005 seasons. As a result of this change, they improved from 23rd in points allowed in '04 to 20th in '05.

You might recall that Bowlen's chief disappointment in last year's team was the chemistry. "The esprit de corps, for lack of a better expression, I don't know where it was," he said in his season postmortem.

The fault for this, apparently, lay with Sauerbrun, Walker and Gold. Sauerbrun was cut before the season ended following an embarrassing drunken episode. Walker and Gold were cut last week.

It may seem a little odd to blame Walker, who had no off-field trouble, more than Travis Henry, who was at the center of a seasonlong soap opera over his trail of progeny across four states and a failed drug test he beat on appeal. Henry's lack of discipline may not be confined to his personal life. Opposing scouts suggest he is injury prone because he seldom reports in top shape.

In fact, it looks like the bottom line here is less character and more the bottom line. Walker declined to renegotiate his contract; Henry accepted a substantial cut.

But the Walker case illustrates the sort of financial mistake that may have dictated this year's frugal posture. The Broncos have been in the habit of acquiring players such as Walker and Dre Bly and immediately giving them huge new deals without making them play a year first.

Two years ago, the Broncos made Walker their No. 1 receiver. Two years later, he is persona non grata - and a $7 million hit on the salary cap. This is the sort of flip-flop that makes you wonder about Broncos management.

Meanwhile, their first run at a replacement is the big splash so far, free agent Keary Colbert, a former second-round draft pick who hasn't caught a touchdown pass in two years.

Another head-scratcher was Shanahan's absence from the NFL scouting combine, which wrapped up last week in Indianapolis. In the year he declared the Broncos would shift their emphasis from free agency to the draft, he elected not to watch the draft class work out in person.

For now, the Broncos have eight picks in the draft, including two of the first 42. If they can turn those top picks into playmakers, they might yet improve their talent level for the coming year. Or, they might trade down and increase the size of their draft haul rather than trade up and decrease it, as they have the last two years.

Mainly, they are counting on improvement from the three defensive linemen they drafted in 2007. The two lines remain the team's weakest links. Tom Nalen's return at center should help on the offensive side, but Ben Hamilton's concussion issues leave the Broncos one helmet-to-helmet hit away from another hole to plug.

A great draft, of course, could solve a lot of these problems. Based on their apparent lack of interest in the free agent market, it looks like they will need one.

Comments

  • March 2, 2008

    7:40 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    ballhead writes:

    I'm a Shana-fan and I want the guy here for a long time. That said, I'm starting to get fidgety. I'm all for building through the draft--that's how it should be done. But this goes beyond general direction and into sheer numbers. We NEED bodies, right? At least for starters: punter, kicker, linebacker, wide receiver, d-lineman. THAT'S assuming everyone else isn't old, injured or just plain sucky (a questionable assumption based on last year). I really thought we'd jump in the free agency game just out of need for more human beings on the field ...???

  • March 2, 2008

    7:44 p.m.

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    R8R_H8R writes:

    Finally, a writer that doesn't smooch Shanahan's butt and lays it on the line. The fans of the Denver BRoncos are sick and tired of the idiotic personnel moves dictated by Mike Shanahan. All new defensive line, a rotating door policy for Defensive coordinators. Every year the defense gets smoked when it counts. The Common Denominator?.......Mike Shanahan. Thanks for the memories Mike, focus on being the coach, not the G.M., or dont let the door hit you on the way out.

  • March 2, 2008

    7:52 p.m.

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    Pigskin writes:

    Dave: Shanahan doesn't need to attend the Combine in order to ignore his scouts. He can do that from the golf course.
    When you're smarter than everybody else, you don't have to put in the homework. He and Sundquist have always treated the draft like an annoying chore, anyway.
    So many things from last year made it evident that Broncos management has no plan: trying desperately to give away a draft pick for a used-up Dan Wilkinson, signing has-beens Sam Adams and Simeon Rice, jettisoning Gerard Warren and trading away a pick for Jimmy Kennedy only to cut him shortly afterward.

  • March 2, 2008

    8:43 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Spider writes:

    They did make a lot of mistakes last year in FA's that they brought to Denver. Maybe that's why they're cooling their jets this year? It's time for this team to start building for the future anyway. NO MORE QUICK FIXES!

  • March 3, 2008

    2:37 a.m.

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    jeeks99 writes:

    There won't be any good fixes until Shanahan gets his head out of his ASS !!

  • March 3, 2008

    6:03 a.m.

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    waterwalker writes:

    who is this slowik guy? as a diehard denver fan and coloradoan who lives in the syracuse ny. area now, Might i suggest shanny that you call robinson back.The coordinator we had during the super bowl years. I thought he was innovative enough with medium talent to be effective. Besides he's blowin it here in syracuse as a head coach. You might get him cheap!! Also i wonder if shanny has seen this linebacker and this wideout on the cuse's team who are pretty darn good that are in this draft. i.e.(marvin harrison) definately nfl sleepers this year!!

  • March 3, 2008

    8:16 a.m.

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    r8rh8r writes:

    First off, as a Broncos fan who has spent the last decade in DC and AZ, I can tell you that we are spoiled rotten. This franchise has been under .500 three times since 1976 and has appeared in 5 super bowls. Shanahan has been under .500 twice in 13 years--both times finishing 7-9. Try routing for the Lions or the Cardinals.

    The drawback to this kind of success is that 'another 8-8 season' or 'another 1-and-done-playoff-run' gets boring. Its the repetition we don't like. Of all the franchises in the league, Denver is arguably the best coached and most consistent.

    If there is one area where Denver is getting out-competed, its in personnel management. There are a handful of teams--San Diego, Indianapolis, and Green Bay--whose distinctive competency as an organization is in this area. If a team like San Diego is turning 25% of their draft picks into pro-bowlers, the advantage garnered from having better chemistry or a better scheme dissipates rapidly.

    Recently, many NFL teams have been seeking to imitate the personnel management strategies of these organizations. For instance, Atlanta aggressively acquired a staff member from the Packers personnel management team.

    My complaint about the Broncos is that they are sitting idly by while a revolution in the field of personnel management is happening in the NFL. The longer Bowlen waits to take this burden away from Shanahan and give it to a prodigy in this rapidly evolving field, the further we will fall behind.

    But let me reiterate, all of you naysayers who are calling for Shanahan's job have a short-term memory. Denver is among the most storied franchises in NFL history and Shanahan is at least 20% of the reason for that (Elway is probably 75% of the reason for it). If you'd like Bowlen to bring Reeves out of retirement or to bait Wade Phillips away from Dallas, I'm sure it could be done. I personally would be sick to my stomach if we had to deal with another regime like that--or worse. Shanahan is still among the best in the business.

    Remember the last time we went 7-9? Bubby Brister ring a bell? For Cutler's first year under center, things could have been worse. I'm looking forward to winning 9-11 games this year and I think the sky's the limit in the next 5 years.

  • March 3, 2008

    8:17 a.m.

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    r8rh8r writes:

    6 super bowls! Doh!

  • March 3, 2008

    noon

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    Geof writes:

    It seems the overall problem is that our Broncos can't get everything together in one given year. If it ain't the O-line it's the D-line (or both). If it ain't the quarterback it's the receiver, or the RB's keep going down, or the Special teams are breaking records by tackling like clawless kittens.

    It used to be that we produced talent; now we have to buy it straight off the rack on Sat afternoon. My guess is that things are stale, and a change in management might be best in the long run. I mean, who here really believes we're going back to the show anytime soon, it's been a DECADE.

  • March 3, 2008

    12:41 p.m.

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    Fairfax writes:

    If I were the GM here is how I would look at the current state of this team. The problem is you have to build a team from the inside out. That's how you become a physical football team. Physical teams are consistent from game to game and year to year, look at Pittsburg since, well, forever.

    I love Champ Bailey. He is my favorite player and the best corner in the NFL (yes, much better then A. Samuels). But you can't build a defense around the secondary. You start with studs on the line, find smart, gritty linebackers to fill holes, and then when your front 7 is tough and able to control the line of scrimmage, you bring in the big play guy in the secondary. This is what the 49ers did with Deion Sanders. As much as I hate to admit it, it makes little sense to have the best corner in the NFL if you don't have any elite guys up front.

    I cringed everytime I had to watch Champ take on an opponents running back head on because the front 7 wasn't doing their job. How many games does that take off the career of a skill guy who relies on speed and agility?

    I've heard some talk about looking for more wide receivers. Forget it. Just like the secondary, you bring in the elite edge guys only after you have secured the front lines. Ask the Cardinals how much two elite wideouts has helped them the last 3 years.

    We are better off then many teams. We have a great young QB. Now its time for the Broncos to get physical. Draft linemen and linebackers. Get a big, muscular back like Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart, and if you have to trade the greatest corner in team history to get physical, then so be it.

  • March 3, 2008

    2:54 p.m.

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    Bear writes:

    Shanahan drafted players like Terrell Davis, Rod Smith, Trevor Pryce, and Al Wilson. He signed players like Mark Schlereth, Ed McCaffery, and Neil Smith. He's also had his share of bust but to say he can't be both GM and coach is asinine, he's done it before and will do it again.

    The recent problems can be attributed to an over dependence on Free Agency and a streak of bad drafts from 02-04. The dependence of free agency can is because in Denver the expectations are win the Super Bowl or the seasons a failure. Shanahan has kept the Broncos competitive for so long that the phrase one player away became his Mantra. Too many free agents combined with so few players from the 02-04 drafts left the Broncos without a core group of guys raised within the Broncos culture.

    The lack of activity this early in free agency is a good sign that Shanahan is reverting back to his early days of GM. The last two draft classes specifcally the '05 class are going to be the core of this team for a long time on both sides of the ball. Free Agency will be filled with young no-name, low risk players looking for a fresh start (Eddie Mac anyone?)

    This years draft is big for the Broncos, with 8 picks linebacker, offensive line, safety, and defensive line are obvious, all need youth and depth. The only position I see the Broncos making a flashy pick is WR, lots of talent and speed in this years draft.

    Shanahan has a plan and I like the direction but it's gonna take some time.

  • March 3, 2008

    6 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Denver81 writes:

    Amen to Bear and r8rh8r, nice to see some fans that have the grit to be REAL fans, not fair weather fans. To the majority of the rest of you, grow up, cursing Shanahan is just stupid, the coach that finally got us the super bowl wins deserves more respect than that. He also deserves our patience while he revamps this team around Cutler and gets us back to elite status. It wont happen over night, but it will happen.

  • March 4, 2008

    8:06 a.m.

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    r8rh8r writes:

    I agree with your arguments Bear but I don't think that they necessarily indicate that Shanahan is capable of being a GM. The 2004 draft absolutely KILLED our team, I agree. Subsequent drafts haven't been terrible. Teams like Indy, SD, and GB have guys whose distinctive ability is personnel management. I'm not going to argue that Shanahan is 'bad' at the GM aspect of his job, but I will argue that Bill Polian, Ted Thompson, and A.J. Smith are light-years better.

    If for no other reason (and I think its for a lot of other reasons), they are brilliant football minds who do nothing but scout talent year round. Shanahan is out-resourced and the Broncos are never going to attract top level personnel management talent like that without affording them some level of autonomy to do their jobs. In other words, the Bill Polians of the world don't want to be Shanahan's yes-man.

    I'd like to see a shake-up in the front office strategy in Denver, but I wouldn't view the loss of Mike Shanahan as an acceptable casualty in that process.

  • March 5, 2008

    5:55 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    llamas303 writes:

    ok, first off, lets make it clear that shannahan has had a few bad years overall. the offense was bad a year ago, the defense was TERRIBLE this year, and the free agent moves have been sub par at least along the defensive line. I do believe though that this team was tainted from the beginning of this year with injuries. Lepsis, nalen, walker, moss, henry, and plenty of others. Now as far as the free agent market goes this year, it is the worst free agent class in a long time. I think the main focus for the broncos is resigning jason elam, it is scary to think that he might not be a bronco next season. The draft is the way to go, our super bowl teams are perfect examples. This years draft class is deep at the wide reciever spot and tackle spot, which are 2 holes for the broncos.

  • March 6, 2008

    1:35 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    trade_that_pick writes:

    so does anyone thinks its sickning that all denver does is get a 1000 yard rusher then trade them away? Portis had great potential here in denver. okay so shanny can get 1000 yds from a RB, but the number of yards per game seem to decline each year. our O-line is old, d-line is young and full of drugs, we miss al wilson, dj go to the weak side, sign a goo OLB, get rid of dre bly, draft a compliment to champ and get two people that can help champ in the dbackfield. basically we are headed fro another disappointing season. under par and over paid. hit the road shanny! he wont keep anybody thats worth a darn, but he'll sign somebody that WAS worth a darn to a bunch of money, then cut him.

  • March 7, 2008

    9:56 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    r8rh8r writes:

    trade_that_pick, I couldn't disagree with you more. The most difficult positions to fill (and arguably the most important) on a football team are as follows:

    QB
    OT
    DE
    CB

    ...in that order. RB's are a dime a dozen. We traded away a guy who is banged up, perennially injured, and losing the speed advantage that has made up for his lack of size. Ultimately, the 1-RB system is a dead art form in the NFL. I think that the vast majority of running backs have a 3-4 year window of productivity and that--so long as you have a great offensive line and scheme--they are pretty easy to come by.

    Unfortunately, great backs don't win super bowls. Most of the 'franchise' backs in NFL history didn't win a super bowl ring and among those that did (Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, Marshall Faulk, Riggins), none of them did it without hall of fame talent on the O-line.

    We traded a (expensive) RB in his prime for a 26-year-old CB that had already been to 4 pro bowls. Portis has maybe 3 years left in this league and Champ Bailey is currently the best player at a hard-to-fill position. With a little luck, Bailey could play well into his thirties and is very likely a hall of famer. We got Bailey AND a 3rd rounder in that deal. I think that was one of the most lopsided trades in NFL history.