REUTEMAN: FasTracks may need more money from voters

By Rob Reuteman, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published June 27, 2008 at 10:10 p.m.

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When I read the other day that RTD was cutting back on the number of benches, security cameras and landscaping details at stops along the soon-to-be-built light rail to Golden, it got me thinking.

The Regional Transportation District hasn't begun to construct the first route of FasTrack's 120 miles of new light rail and it's already having to nickel-and-dime things at a seemingly microscopic level.

The district is hamstrung by skyrocketing construction costs. The prices of steel and concrete are inflating annually at unprecedented levels. I don't need to tell you about fuel prices; they're the reason transit ridership is spiking. And the sales tax revenue that funds the transportation district is dwindling, coming as it does from cash-strapped consumers. A year ago, the original price tag of $4.7 billion ballooned to $6.1 billion.

I'm thinking that RTD will be forced to ask voters for more money to finish this project. And I think voters likely will grant it. When metro-area voters approved FasTracks in 2004, they did so largely on the basis of light rail they'd seen in operation here. I don't think the public wants something delivered that is substantially less, but that seems where we're headed. The current light-rail system is hardly gilt-edged; it's utilitarian but nice. The riding public is happy with it. RTD had an 11 percent increase in ridership in 2007. Through the first quarter of this year, it's up another 8 percent. It can only have increased in the past three months, with $4 gas. The T-REX ridership projections for 2020 already have been exceeded. And the voting public is happy with RTD.

A poll done last fall by the Kenney Group shows that eight in 10 residents agree FasTracks was a good decision. The poll even showed that 62 percent said they voted for FasTracks, when only 58 percent actually did. With gas prices spiraling upward, the need for expanded public transit becomes more pronounced.

"Right when we should be getting more investment, we're getting less," RTD General Manager Cal Marsella told me Thursday.

Sales tax revenue is expected to be down $18 million this year and down $16 million in 2009, he said. "I think we're OK through '09 with our existing budget, but after that, if the economy doesn't improve and if the cost of materials continues to go up, those factors begin to undermine our projections. We can continue to cut back in scope, as we have, but we can't cut much more."

Six new rail lines and the lengthening of three existing corridors will still be completed by 2017, Marsella believes. "But our ability to deliver this program on schedule is largely dependent on the cost of materials and the state of the economy."

Lately, it's as if the face of transportation is changing almost daily. The airline industry is cratering. The automotive industry is in utter disarray. Public transit will be increasingly important as the cost of private transportation edges beyond our means. By 2020, a built-out metro rail system will be an almost irresistible boon to current or prospective employers.

I've talked about this with several people who contend that FasTracks is no different than the usual public works boondoggle: Proponents sell voters on an unrealistically low price, and massive cost overruns inevitably follow. But remember, RTD finished the T-REX project under budget and ahead of schedule and did the same with its Southeast Corridor. The third time clearly won't be a charm. And it's simply not realistic to place the blame on RTD. We live in the same world it lives in, and we've seen what's happened to it.

Marsella admitted that the district will likely conduct a privately financed poll in the coming months. "We will attempt to determine from the public what it wants in FasTracks," he said. "Would they rather see construction delays, fare increases, lines shortened - or an incremental increase in revenue to complete the program?"

He's even toyed with a campaign slogan: "FasTracks - A Good Idea Then, A Better Idea Right Now."

Business editor Rob Reuteman can be reached at 303-954-5177. To comment on this column, go to RockyMountain News.com/business.

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Comments

June 27, 2008

11:56 p.m.

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rj1967 writes:

Going over budget is always bad PR in the short run, but these things always happen. The state would be shooting itself in the foot not to complete as much of FasTracks as they can as fast as they can.

Thirteen years ago DIA cost double what they originally said it would and most people thought it was a money pit. Thirteen years later, no one remembers, no one cares.
June 28, 2008

1:36 a.m.

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cakeckh writes:

FasCracks is the next financial boondoggle of Colorado. We should be repairing what we already have.
June 28, 2008

8:34 a.m.

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SteveM writes:

CakeCKH, not sure what you mean "next financial boondoggle" as if to imply there have been previous ones? You are a very short-sighted individual. I hate to guess what you think the previous boondoggles are, but I can guess. I won't, I'll let you state them. But, regardless, you and people like you forget many things about giant public works projects. They create thousands of jobs. They pump millions into the economy. If this project cost over a billion dollars that money doesn't go down the toilet like fighting useless wars does, it goes into infrastructure for our economic viability in the future. People like you, back in the day, wrote passionately about the DIA boondoggle. Now everyone realizes were it not for DIA, Denver would have become a ghost town. Of course, there are many who wish it had become a ghost town because they liked living here in 1876 when the population was 10,000 and it was just them, the mountain lions, the mountain goats and their solitude. The rest of us, however, like people moving her and buying the 1000s of homes being built everywhere, shopping our stores, setting up accounts in our banks and so on. When it comes to mass transit, however, not having it is simply stupid. We never should have been without it. The fact that building it now rather than before is attributable to people like you who kept shooting down the plans and voting against it in the 80s when it would have cost 1/3 less and would have been matched dollar for dollar by the Feds which is how Washington, D.C. got half its entire subway system paid for. Backward thinking neophytes like yourself need to just keep quiet and let the world progress onward. Then when you can hop a train from your house to DIA and be there in 45 minutes, not have to pay for parking, not have to pay for gas, and not have to breathe a polluted brown cloud for air, you can write all about your boondoggles. Ok?
June 28, 2008

10:15 a.m.

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jacka writes:

FasTricks lies finally appear. Hear comes the ask for more taxes.
June 28, 2008

10:27 a.m.

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jacka writes:

RTD still takes land and financialy backs their developer buddies who they give the land to for TOD.

Where is the sustainability for those left holding the bag.
June 28, 2008

10:48 a.m.

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prk166 writes:

I'm tired of hearing about poor RTD. They dug their hole. Let them deal with it. They low balled the costs from day one & they over estimated the sales tax revenue projections. They wanted to feed as wonderful of a picture to the voters as possible.

Construction cost inflation and sales tax revenue short falls account for some but not all of their problems. Take time to look at the numbers themselves, they don't add up. There's more to it.

Furthermore there are tools they could've used to insulate themselves from "unforeseen" jumps in these costs. They didn't use those tools. I put unforeseen in quotes because 5 years ago when they were making these plans, many commodities were already taking big increases in price. They chose to ignore those rises in their estimates back then. Today they still choose to not use futures to have certainty in what their costs will be. Instead of doing something about the problem they want to come back to the voters for more money.

As for ridership, what RTD did with T-Rex was to be very conservative on their ridership estimates for the new SW line. Where they really come out ahead and how they claim that their ridership is so great is that they where off by 50% in how ridership on the SE line would drop when T-Rex opened. What's the big deal about being so wrong? They never explained why they thought there would be such a huge drop on a line that is 5-15 miles away from the new one.

The biggest problem with Fastracks is that by the time the bonds are paid off, they'll need billions again to rebuild the tracks. Railbeds are like roads, they essentially need to be rebuilt every 30 years. DC's subway is a great example of this. They have over $12 billion in maintainence that needs to be done. This isn't a one-off or twice-off tax. This will need constant financing from our tax money. And at that for what is essentially a downtown transportation system. A downtown that barely has any more jobs than it had 30 years.
June 28, 2008

11:16 a.m.

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prk166 writes:

The Colorado Construction Cost Index went up 6.1% last year. Yet costs on the West corridor went up 12%. There's more to the issue than just unanticipated construction cost increases.
June 28, 2008

5:56 p.m.

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gwats writes:

What would you rather have? A good, clean, reliable transportation system or more and more people driving around in old, beat up cars that are poorly maintained, inefficient on fuel and more than likely NOT insured? People under driver's license suspension on the road with you and your 2.5 kids because they've GOT to get to work? The old and infirm driving when they've been medically ordered NOT to? A good Bus and Rail system has many benefits you can't see looking out those tinted windows of your land yacht. Think about something other than yourself, prk166. And as far as the number of jobs downtown, this number is important to you if one of those jobs is YOURS.
June 28, 2008

11:06 p.m.

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warrengfunk7 writes:

Every article I read online about RTD on either the RMN or Denver Post, has comments by prk166, jacka and usually a guy named Steve Fecsh. These comments are always slamming RTD and mass transit, as if they have an agenda they are trying to push via an online propaganda campaign. A known institution with an ongoing anti-transit propaganda campaign in Denver, is called the Independence Institute. I wouldn't be surprised if some of these anti-transit posters are associated with teh Independence Institute.

As for FasTracks, I think they will solve most of their financial gap with public-Private-Partnerships (PPP's). RTD already leases out 0% of it's bus operations to public partnerships, because of a State Mandated law. By extending this concept to it's rail lines, RTD can save at least $500 million and perhaps much more from it's FasTracks budget. Furthermore, Leasing out construction and operation in a design-build-operate contract with a PPP agreement of 50% of RTD's current and planned rail lines, would help insulate service from stopping if a Union Strike were to ever occur again. Also, when a PPP operates a rail line on a 50-year lease, it also pays to maintain it - not the taxpayers.

RTD is already looking to look into possible PPP's with the Gold Line to Arvada and the East Line to DIA. Perhaps looking into a PPP for teh North Metro line would save even more money, and also result in the design-build-operate partnership in investing extra money to electrify that line, in order to save operating costs from an uncertain fuel price future. Even a PPP for teh Northwest Line to Boulder and Longmont, is worthy of consideration and even worthy of entertaining bids for such a project.
June 28, 2008

11:07 p.m.

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warrengfunk7 writes:

Even if RTD can resolve it's financial gap by investing into PPP's for some of these planned rail lines, it should seek more tax payers monies. Not a lot, but perhaps a simple 10-year extension of the current FasTracks tax, making it last 20 years, instead of 10 years.

Why do this? Because it would not be an additional tax, but an extension of an existing tax. This funding stream would be used to enhance these lines and restore some of the cutbacks resulting from inflated material costs. It would also fund an inner city mass transit system from Central Denver and surrounding neighborhoods.

-A mass transit connection from the Civic Center Station to Cherry Creek
-A streetcar or subway line from Civic center Station to Aurora City Center via Colfax.
-A mass transit link to the Highlands Neighborhood and down 38th Street to the old Elitch Gardens infill development.
-A subway, elevated or streetcar line from Civic Center Station to Broadway/I-25 Station via South Broadway.
-A direct mass transit connection from Union Station to Coors Field through the Ballpark neighborhood to the planned 40th &40th Street light rail station and on to the Denver Zoo, Museum of Nature & Science and City Park areas.

These are some of the elements that could be built and added to the FasTracks system, simply by extending the current sales tax by another 10-years.
June 29, 2008

12:53 p.m.

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xeeian writes:

I dunno, alot of people use LightRail to get to the DTC. Hang at the Colorado Blvd station in the morning. It's pretty busy going down town and to the DTC.
June 29, 2008

11:13 p.m.

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jacka writes:

Warrengflunky,

Go retool your RTD 'for sustainability' mantra.

I just googled the 'Independence Institute'.

http://www.i2i.org/main/page.php?page...

303-279-6536

I think I'll like them based on the 5 minute review of their website. Plus their leader was a former RTD board member. Look forward to advocating some new concepts from my new friends at 'the double eye'.
June 30, 2008

11:27 a.m.

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Bob299 writes:

For all of the heat the RTD receives for increasing construction costs related to FasTracks, I am amazed at how the lack of funding for highway projects and the transportation crisis is always swept under the rug.

Check out
http://www.dot.state.co.us/StateWideP...

Just for statewide highway projects alone to maintain existing service levels, there is a $36 billion shortfall. $36 billion!!

I voted for FasTracks and will be happily riding light rail, while the rest of the metro area sits in traffic. Good luck getting there with $5/gallon gas!
June 30, 2008

11:26 p.m.

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warrengfunk7 writes:

The former RTD board member that heads the Independence Institute is John Caldera. In fact, the reason Denver doesn't already have a World Class mass-transit system (built back when it was still affordable), is probably because of John Caldera being voted to the RTD board - a known anti-transit, pro-highways guy. Only after RTD was finally able to shed its self of this internal resistance, was it able to start making significant investments in transportation infrastructure. Unfortunately, John Caldera's effort to hold onto the big oil/big auto world he lives in, and stop mass-transit in it';s tracks, only delayed it up until a present when the cost of such a system is much more expensive than it should have been.

So, the people complaining about the cost of mass-transit infrastructure, are the ones that caused that price tag to go up, by doing everything possible to delay it. NO WORLD CLASS CITY, is without a World Class Mass-Transit System. To think Denver doesn't need a mass-transit system to emerge as a world class city, is insane.
June 30, 2008

11:31 p.m.

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warrengfunk7 writes:

P.S.
I agree with nearly everything the Independence Institute stands for, except for John Caldera and his anti-mass-transit position and his backstabbing, do whatever it takes to stop FasTracks attitude. Big oil, big auto USA is the greatest failure of the baby boomer generation. A failure they still will not own up to.
July 18, 2008

7:44 p.m.

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prk166 writes:

Ok, if you think I have an agenda then BREAK down RTD's ridership numbers and explain how they're good on their own. RTD likes to report it's total rail ridership today along with what it projected for that total. But keep in mind the lion share of it's "over projections" is because it had projected the existing SW line to have 9,000 riders (assuming a round trip that's @4,500 people) less per day when the SE line opened than what actually happened. As of Spring of 2007, that massive miscalculation accounted for all of the riders over it's projections. The new SE line was actually carrying a few hundred less riders per day than it had projected.

I don't have an issue with transit. I do have an issue of how effective government spending is. For example, with 2/3 to 3/4th of LRT riders having previously taken transit, the SW line was 70% when it was built, it's likely that on most corridors it would've been much more cost effective to have built proper BRT with a seperate right of way and "stations". Or think of it another way, even today the freeway of the T-Rex project carries about 12 times more "riders" than the SW line even though more money was spent on the LRT portion of T-Rex than the freeway. Now if you need to simply the world into black and white, fine, put me in the anti-transit category. But in it's really more complex than that. Rail is not the only transit option. And opposing spending nearly $300 million on the Boulder to Longmont heavy rail route for a few thousand people to ride each day doesn't mean that I or others oppose all transit. We just see a lot of aspects of Fastracks as being wasteful.

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REUTEMAN: FasTracks may need more money from voters

By Rob Reuteman, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published June 27, 2008 at 10:10 p.m.

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