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CU scientists: Rapid Ice Age melt-off could happen again

It's enough to jolt researchers delving into global warming

By Bill Scanlon, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published June 19, 2008 at 2:27 p.m.
Updated June 19, 2008 at 4:03 p.m.

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University of Colorado researcher Jim White

University of Colorado researcher Jim White

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How about this for global warming?

An increase of 22 degrees Fahrenheit in just 50 years — 40-degree daily highs shifting to 62-degree highs in a half century.

That's not the forecast today, but it's what happened toward the end of Earth's last Ice Age, atmospheric researchers have found.

It's enough to jolt scientists into worrying that the first few degrees of warming can somehow spark an acceleration that soars temperatures faster than humans can adjust to them.

Analyzing dust in Greenland ice cores, the scientists found that about 14,700 years ago temperatures suddenly shot up — and the climate changed drastically in just 50 years.

It stayed warm for 1,800 years, then plunged back to icy conditions for another 1,200 years, before rapidly getting warmer again.

Drawing a comparison to what scientists know — and don't know — about global warming today, University of Colorado researcher Jim White said that until they understand the whys and wherefores of sudden upshots in temperatures, "We are speeding blindly down a narrow road, hoping there are no curves ahead."

"We know such events are in Earth's future, but we don't know when," White said. "One question is whether we can see the symptoms before big problems occur."

The ice cores were drilled as part of the North Greenland Ice Core Project, then analyzed with powerful microscopes to detect year-by-year changes in precipitation and dust.

The scientists found that both rapid warm-ups were preceded by less dust in Greenland, which indicated higher temperatures in the tropics and a lot more rain falling in the deserts of Asia at the time.

The scientists think that warming in the tropics caused rapid changes in the air above the equator, and intensified the Pacific monsoon and the loss of sea ice in the north Atlantic Ocean. Those combinations caused more heat and moisture in Greenland.

Most global warming models today predict a rise in temperatures of less than 5 degrees this century because of increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Even that type of rise is unprecedented in recorded history and likely will result in crop failures, unpredictable weather, shorter ski seasons and other problems, a consensus of scientists says.

The study included 17 co-investigators from Europe, one from Japan and two from the United States — White and Trevor Popp, also from CU-Boulder.

White, whose work is funded by the National Science Foundation's Office of Polar Programs, said knowing how the massive warm-ups start and evolve are crucial, since "such rapid climate change would challenge even the most modern societies to successfully adapt."

Jerry Meehl, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said Arctic sea ice can disappear rapidly over the course of a year or two. Otherwise, though, it is difficult to predict whether the accumulation of human-caused warming can reach a tipping point and spur a very rapid temperature increase.

It's a question, though, that atmospheric scientists are trying to answer, he said.

Comments

  • June 19, 2008

    2:53 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Dick_Tater writes:

    That's what happens when all those dinosaurs go driving their SUV's around.

  • June 19, 2008

    2:59 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Michael writes:

    Dick_Tater - I don't think there were any dinosaurs around 14,700 years ago....but I get your point and the visual image of a T-Rex behind the wheel of a HUGE Caddy Escalade is hillarious.
    The point being that massive shifts and small shifts in the climate of this planet have occurred before...before man drove SUVs and had factories and spewed anything into the atmosphere. Do we have an impact now? Maybe....but even so, that impact is like hitting a dinosaur with a fly swatter.

  • June 19, 2008

    3:07 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Newenergycommie writes:

    You are both wrong. Bush caused the ice to melt 14,700 years age and he is doing it again.

  • June 19, 2008

    3:14 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    SockRayBlue writes:

    I wish it would hurry so I could sail to Denver. Wind is a lot cheaper than gas. At least it would eliminate those wackos on both coasts.

  • June 19, 2008

    3:26 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    LoFat writes:

    Thank you for your insight, DirtySanchez! We would no longer be looked at with disdain by the uneducated "coastistas".

  • June 19, 2008

    3:55 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Scott writes:

    Maybe the warm up 14,700 years ago was due to woolly mammoth flagellance (sp?). Remember about ten years ago when the animal and/or eco terrorists were gusting that cow farts from all of the cattle in the U.S. was contributing to global warming? That was a good one.

    Scott

  • June 19, 2008

    4:04 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    temurlan writes:

    It would make it easier to drill in ANWR. Can we speed it up?

  • June 19, 2008

    4:33 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Scott writes:

    temurlan,

    I hate to burst your bubble, but warming will thaw the permafrost hence making access into ANWR more difficult. Therefore, we will need to pave over a six lane freeway from Anchorage to ANWR to facilitate accessing the oil fields. That should do the trick.

    Man! Did you hear what I just heard? The sphincters of all of the libs just cinched up. ;-)

    Scott

  • June 19, 2008

    4:36 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    MeAgainstMachine writes:

    Scott - that would be 'flatulence', not to be mistaken for when Al Gore speaks about global warming while he buys carbon credits to offset the ten times the average Americans worth of pollution that he creates.

    I don't want to see one of those self righteous spellcheckers lay into you for misspelling it.

    Oh, and the cow farts problem...I contribute by eating as many steaks and burgers as I can.

  • June 19, 2008

    4:55 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Scott writes:

    MeAgainstMachine,

    No problem on the being a spell checker. I knew it was incorrect and that is why I put the (sp?) after my misspelling. The spell checker that Firefox uses didn't even come close in offering a suggestion. Yes, I do own a real dictionary, but I was not even close in trying to find it.

    Isn't Gore a lawyer? If so the mouth and anus are interchangeable parts on all lawyers. ;-)

    Thanks again,
    Scott

  • June 19, 2008

    4:56 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    nimbusco writes:

    The difference between now and 14,700 years ago: humans have been busily pumping the atmosphere with CO2 derived from organic deposits that had previously been buried (and out of circulation) for millions of years. The physics of greenhouse warming are over 100 years old, well-known and uncontested. The only question is, what will the effects on climate be of an atmosphere that has a higher capacity for retaining heat? The answer almost certainly cannot be "no effect".

  • June 19, 2008

    5:11 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Scott writes:

    nimbusco sez,
    "The answer almost certainly cannot be "no effect"."

    But it maybe minuscule. We just don't know. With the politically correct attitude of bashing ANYONE that dares to dispute what the the inventor of the Internet (Gore) and its minion are preaching an honest/scientific debate is darn hard to hold. The moment anyone puts forth data that contradicts the inventor of the Internet and its minion, they are immediately pounced upon as mouthpieces for the vast-rightwing-conspiracy.

    Scott

  • June 19, 2008

    7:16 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    SockRayBlue writes:

    Lofat

    Ahhh Soooo.

  • June 19, 2008

    8:33 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    spd writes:

    me against the machine: your eating of cows to eliminate their farts leads to increased flatulence on your part! think about your carbon footprint!;)

    if the 50 years starts now, Colorado real estate is quite the investment! imagine a Front Range full of Californians AND New Yorkers...20 million of them. oy ve.

  • June 19, 2008

    8:33 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    rickg19611 writes:

    "The physics of greenhouse warming are over 100 years old, well-known and uncontested. "

    Yeah.... that must be why you can't accurately predict the temperature a week from now, but claim that forecasts for 100 years from now should be trusted blindly.

  • June 19, 2008

    10:15 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    jacka writes:

    Ok so we had dramatic climate change both ways (lets call that bi-climatic). Yet gas guzzlin' SUVs, dirty coal plants and 2 billion chinese and indians were not around. George Bush also was not around.

    Sounds Internet Al's theories are false, lies, spin and generally anti-climatic.

  • June 19, 2008

    10:16 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    MattGuyver_007 writes:

    I was looking forward to debating some posters a bit but so far it's nothing but common sense. Ugh! Where is RainbowWarrior, GreenLeaf, etc? Surely someone out there will blame climatic change on our Front Range lifestyles.