Analysis: McCain's visits help Obama
Nobody disputes that Colorado's one of the top 2008 battlegrounds
By M.E. Sprengelmeyer, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)
Published July 30, 2008 at 7:50 p.m.
Updated July 30, 2008 at 7:50 p.m.
Each time Sen. John McCain shows his face in Colorado, it's at least a small, symbolic victory for rival Sen. Barack Obama.
That's because the White House race is a bit like a staring contest.
When Democrats and Republicans go head-to-head every four years, they try to stay focused on picking up new voters, adding to the party's base to win the Electoral College math.
In theory, it helps if one candidate can force the other side to "blink" by wasting time defending states his party has held more easily in the past.
And that's what's happening in Colorado.
With six trips to the state this year, double that of Obama, McCain already has given Colorado more personal attention than President Bush did during his 2004 re-election bid.
McCain has been in Colorado twice in the past week and is expected to be back in the next two weeks.
And the once reliably "red" state – one that the GOP has carried in nine of the last 10 presidential contests – no longer is fly-over country. It's must-win territory for Republicans.
"I have to compete here," McCain said during a visit to the state Wednesday. "I have to win here if I'm going to be the next president of the United States."
In past years, that might have sounded like just one of those things barnstorming politicians say. But nobody disputes that Colorado now is one of the top 2008 battlegrounds.
No matter who wins the state in November, in theory Obama benefits by every minute McCain is diverted here. Likewise, McCain benefits when Obama spend extra time and resources defending states that were once more reliably in the Democratic column, like Minnesota, Michigan or Pennsylvania.
"Obviously, part of presidential politics is the head-fake," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "You are not simply trying to win states. You are trying to make your opponent waste time and money where he would otherwise not have to."
McCain spokesman Tom Kise said it's true that both sides like to expand the electoral map and force the other side to defend once-friendly territory. But he said neither side can take past results for granted.
"If you look at old maps and say that's always the way it's going to be, and you don't look at a state as a whole, its population, its demographic changes and the sentiments of its people, that's a recipe for failure," Kise said.
Translation: Colorado isn't the same state it was a decade or two ago. McCain thinks his mindset still matches the state better. And, unlike most other Republican nominees of the past 40 years, he's going to come back again and again to make that argument.
Obama spokesman Matt Chandler said that the list of competitive states is longer than ever before. Obama is trying to put one-time GOP bastions like Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, Georgia and Montana into play.
Still, some analysts list Colorado at or near the top of Obama's potential take-over lists, so he needs to follow through with more than a "symbolic" win, observers said.
"I think Obama needs Colorado," said Stu Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report. "If Obama wins Colorado he has a good chance to win the White House. If he doesn't win Colorado, it tells me it isn't the big Obama year that some people think it's going to be. If he's not going to win Colorado, I'm not sure how he's going to win Virginia, Indiana, and I guess you could say Ohio."
Robert Loevy, a political science professor from Colorado College, said candidates always try to get opponents to defend their base territory. "But the fact is, Colorado is not in either candidate's base this year," Loevy said.
In 2004, Sen. John Kerry made early efforts to target Colorado, then withdrew advertising dollars after President Bush showed the usual 6 to 9 percentage point lead in state polls.
Now, Democrats are back, and for a simple reason, Loevy said.
"My theory is the only reason a Democrat would be here is that their prospects in the South are so poor," Loevy said. "If they're not going to get any electoral votes out of the South – and they did not in either 2000 or 2004 – that's what forces them to look at Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada."
CANDIDATES IN COLORADO
Sen. John McCain
* July 29-30: Fundraiser Tuesday night and visit Wednesday to Wagner Equipment Co. in Aurora.
* July 25: Speech before Hispanic veterans in Denver; meeting with Dalai Lama in Aspen.
* July 7: Town hall meeting in Denver on economy.
* May 27: Foreign policy speech at the University of Denver and a fundraiser.
* May 2: Health care speech at Robert E. Loup Jewish Center in Denver.
* March 27: Fundraiser in Denver with Mitt Romney, former GOP primary opponent.
Sen. Barack Obama
* July 2: Health care speech at the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs.
* May 28: Education town hall meeting at Mapleton Expeditionary School of the Arts, Thornton. Also attended a fundraiser.
* Jan. 30: Primary campaign appearance at the University of Denver.
Fact box compiled by staffer Steve Haigh
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July 30, 2008
10:46 p.m.
Suggest removal
SL10 writes:
Ok, this is going nowhere fast. Let's all (GOP and Democrat) just vote for Obama. And call it a day, so Obama can start his admin. selection process. Sounds like a plan. Eh?