Report: Front Range is emerging as a hub of new heartland

By Burt Hubbard, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published July 20, 2008 at 1:33 p.m.

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The Front Range will see an influx of 2.6 million people over the next 32 years as it emerges as a major center of a new American heartland in the West, according to a Brookings Institution report.

The report by the Washington, D.C., think tank, found that the rising influence of the 15 Colorado counties from Larimer south to El Paso is being fueled by the most highly educated, most productive work force in the region and some of the nation's top research centers.

"It's the only place among Western centers that is outpacing national performance," said Mark Muro, policy director at Brookings' Metropolitan Policy Program.

However, the report said the expected increase in population by 2040 to 6.3 million will require local and federal governments to work together to address strained transit systems, air pollution and water and electrical needs without exacerbating global warming.

"The Front Range is doing quite well, thank you, and has demonstrated a tremendous degree of self-help, but it can't prevail alone on the global stage," Muro said.

The report centered on the emergence of five "mountain mega" regions in the West that will become political and economic centers in a new U.S. heartland. Besides the Front Range, the centers are the areas around Phoenix/Tucson, Albuquerque/Santa Fe, Salt Lake City and Las Vegas.

The five areas accounted for 13 percent of the nation's growth between 2000 and 2007 and will add another 12.7 million residents by 2040, the report said.

"The region is growing up, flexing its muscle and distancing itself from California," the report said. "Politically, the intermountain West could be home to several swing states in the 2008 election and in time play the storied 'kingmaking' role the Midwest does now."

Already, this year's presidential candidates, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, have concentrated much of their campaigning in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

Rob Lang, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech and one of the report's authors, said the electoral votes in the three states plus Arizona will be more crucial for political parties in the coming decades.

"Go to 2030 or 2040 and a state like an Arizona is the size of Ohio, and Colorado could be Michigan," Lang said. "That is what we call the new heartland."

The report found the Front Range, among the five areas, was the best-positioned to make the transition to a global center. It cited high education levels, above- average labor productivity, a first-class airport and a large percentage of jobs in "knowledge" industries such as higher education and high-tech.

"It's a good news story in terms of present performance for your region," Muro said. "You have demonstrated the ability to find cohesive government solutions."

Tom Clark, executive vice president of the Metro Denver Economic Development Corp., said the metro area has a long history of cooperating regionally, starting with RTD in 1972 and continuing with the science and cultural district, air quality council and economic council in the 1980s.

"We're still the envy of everyone around the country," Clark said.

However, the report said the Front Range and the other four areas will need federal help to deal with growing pains involving water, energy and transit.

"A highway corridor across three states is going to be hard to get built by any one state," Muro said.

For the Front Range, the federal government can help forge regional water agreements and get direct flights to international locations from Denver International Airport and more funding for rapid transit, the report said.

"Washington should invest in creating things, it should reward certain things such as great governance, and otherwise it should get out of the way," Muro said.

hubbardb@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-5107

Key findings

* Location The area stretches from the Wyoming border south to El Paso County and encompasses 15 counties. It accounts for 80 percent of Colorado's population. It is the second-largest megapolitan area in the West, trailing only the Phoenix area.

* Productivity It has high labor productivity with each worker on average producing about $95,000 a year in goods and services. It is the only major metro area in the West above the national average.

* Spending Venture capital spending along the Front Range is almost twice the national average per person. On average, $17 per person is spent in investment income along the Front Range compared with $9 per person nationally.

* Education It has the highest educational levels in the West. Only 10.9 percent of adults don't have high school diplomas compared with 15.8 percent nationally; 36.7 percent have college degrees compared with 27 percent nationally.

* Jobs Almost 19 percent of the corridor's jobs are in "knowledge-driven" industries such as higher education, financial services, information technology and health care. That is the highest percent in the West and above the U.S. average of 16 percent.

* Poverty Poverty is below the national average but rising at a faster rate. The rate along the Front Range is 10.4 percent vs. 13.3 percent nationally. However, the rate has risen 40.7 percent since 1990 compared with 21.1 percent nationally.

* Classes The middle class along the Front Range is dwindling. Since 1970, middle-class families have shrunk by 8.4 percent, while the lower class has risen 3 percent. The upper class is up 6.8 percent.

Report solutions

* Traffic congestion and air pollution Help finance with private enterprise the relocation of train freight tracks to the eastern Plains.

* Air travel Help airlines at Denver International Airport get more direct flights to international destinations. * Water and energy Ease the way for regional agreements in the West to share water. Expand and modernize the national electrical grid.

Forum on report

* What: Forum on the Brookings Institute report

* When: 11:15 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. Tuesday

* Where: Law offices of Moye White on the sixth floor of 1400 16th St. in downtown Denver

* Register: regonline.com/ denverimw

• July 20, 2008

  3:38 p.m.

  Suggest removal

  ntaylor writes:

  I don't see how that many people can live in Colorado with the amount of water we have naturally available. As the need to become more independent of the global economy increases, we will need to be able to live more locally and discontinue importing as many things that we need, including water. If the future were a logical extension of the present, then maybe this report would be relevant. But the future is not going to look like the present and we are going to have to make a shift that I don't believe will accommodate this many people. We will need to provide our own food more locally and you can't do that without water.

• July 20, 2008

  4:02 p.m.

  Suggest removal

  RS writes:

  It is interesting this growth occurs in the state with TABOR in place. Much of the growth can be attributed to California forcing out their most productive citizens. Colorado needs to pay attention - dissing the productive, taxpaying citizen is a guaranteed route to economic failure. President Obama will prove this theory early in his administration as he is already convincing investors to move their funds to more favorable markets and currencies.

• July 20, 2008

  4:21 p.m.

  Suggest removal

  milehighsoapbox writes:

  I think there needs to be a reconsideration of cuts made to Fast Tracks if this many people are projected to move to the front range. It is ridiculous to cut that now. It is getting difficult to get around, what will it be like when all these people move here and there is no public transportation?

• July 20, 2008

  5:07 p.m.

  Suggest removal

  OneCreek writes:

  We will all be eating in long-lined, infested soup kitchens by then, and the dystopic reality shown in "Children of Men" will be hard upon us.

  "Soylent Green is people!" "Soylent Green is people!"

• July 20, 2008

  6:25 p.m.

  Suggest removal

  Brix57 writes:

  Where do these people get their figures from? 2.6 million people in 32 years? That is one and a half generations of the people living here currently. Do the math of even 1.5 children per family and you get close to what they are saying.

  This is great? I moved here from the SF Bay Area in 1994 where their population was 13 million to Colorado where the state population was 4.3 million. Today it is 6.3 million still a far cry from anything.

  Perhaps we can get away from those saying anything of illegal immigration as they certainly have a hand in it, mostly through inaction.

• July 20, 2008

  9:02 p.m.

  Suggest removal

  Rangerjoe1 writes:

  High techies will need low paying slave to mow there lawns and clean their toilets. Time for working Coloradians to hit the road
  Politicians will want more low paying illegals to make them look good.

• July 20, 2008

  9:50 p.m.

  Suggest removal

  Who_Me writes:

  Of course none of the current natives remember (or are even aware of, too concerned with polishing their pioneer license plates) the mass exodus from backwoods going nowhere fast state of Colorado into Southern California in the 70's. But that is typical, the smarter ones left, the ones who were too dumb to move or too lazy to strive for something better stayed, and now they rant here and on CL about the <name whatever state you hate> people moving here.

• July 21, 2008

  12:03 a.m.

  Suggest removal

  djbrav writes:

  Who_me
  I'll take the bait - I stayed and chose to survive in CO bc of the fantastic weather and diverse activities of this great state. I would consider staying, and working harder in order to do so, a better choice than leaving. Seemingly you cashed out of your home in CA and were able to buy a home here for cash - congratulations.
  If you are feeling unwelcome from us 'backwoods' yokels my sincerest apologies and warmest welcome to you from a 4th gen CO native.
  Now I have to go polish my pioneer license plate and apply my new native bumper sticker.
  Have a great day!

• July 21, 2008

  6:55 a.m.

  Suggest removal

  Hambone writes:

  There will be easily that many new people considering the influx of illegals from the South and their reproductive rates. And yes, water will be a huge problem. I believe that the Native Americans told early white settlers the same thing a couple hundred years ago.

• July 21, 2008

  7:36 a.m.

  Suggest removal

  warrengfunk7 writes:

  It's time to start planing for NexTracks, which will be a 10-year expansion to the FasTracks network being built now. Also, there needs to be a major reconstruction done in the I-70 West Corridor. I'm talking both highway improvements and a high tech Mag-Lev Train like what is being used in Shanghai, China and in Germany. Lots of money, yes, but spread out over two decades and having large chunks of it funded by the feds - it will be well worth it.

  Denver = World Class City of the 21st Century, lets make sure Denver emerges as a clean, dense and efficient city.

• July 25, 2008

  2:52 a.m.

  Suggest removal

  gkb2008 writes:

  The analysis and research makes several errors. It fails to include St George in the Las Vegas region; Flagstaff and perhaps Yuma in the Sun Corridor region; Farmington in the Northern New Mexico region; Pocatello and Idaho Falls in the Wasatch Front region; and Cheyenne and Pueblo in the Front Range Corridor region. The omission of all the population centers in each of the growing regions indicates poor research and an evident lacking of understanding and knowledge of the communities that make up the greater regions. And like has been said in the other comments, it fails to take into account the availability of water and the declining quantity throughout the West in the coming decades with the amplification of global warming on temperatures and precipitation patterns. There is no money fix for this. Strongly tyoical of many researchers based in the East, this study demonstrates there is a serious lack of perspective about the regions of the West and how state lines are largely meaningless when describing regional economies and demographics.

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