Energy policy trumps all other political issues

This Web only Speakout has not been edited.

J.W. Mulholland

Published July 2, 2008 at 6 a.m.

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Public discourse these days focuses a lot of attention on issues of immediate interest to many Americans: high and rising gasoline prices, rising food prices, overly expensive health care, war in Iraq and other troubles in the Middle East, terrorism and illegal immigration, and global warming. I believe many, if not all, of these issues are related and are actually symptoms of a critical problem predicted for decades and now coming to pass.

In 1956 M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist employed by Shell Development Company, presented a study to the American Petroleum Institute entitled ìNuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuelsî. In his study he presented a new way to forecast the longevity of any natural resource, predicting that itís production history would describe a bell-shaped curve on a graph of production volume versus time. He analyzed crude oil, natural gas, and coal for the United States alone and for the world. He updated this study about ten years later for the Committee on Resources and Man of the National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council, and their findings were published in 1969 in a book entitled Resources and Man.

Hubbert predicted that domestic crude oil production would peak about 1970 and decline thereafter. This prediction was accurate, as U.S. crude oil production did indeed peak in November 1970. In 1973 the OPEC oil embargo created an instant shortage of crude oil in this country, resulting in long lines to buy gasoline at any price, a dedication to conserving fuel, and an auto industry focused on building smaller and more fuel-efficient cars. The conservation efforts reduced crude oil demand in this country, oil companies began more vigorously exploring for new sources of oil in other countries, and America began supplementing itís declining domestic production by buying more oil from other countries. The net effect was that the crisis went away until about 1986, when the domestic oil industry collapsed and a severe recession ensued. Today, remaining domestic crude oil resources are only about fifteen percent of the original volume, and only small to medium companies can still make a profit from it. The major oil companies can only afford to search for the few remaining giant deposits, of which there are few still in North America. And America now buys about sixty percent of its crude oil from other countries.

Hubbertís analysis for world-wide crude oil production forecast that it would peak about 1995-2005 and begin an irreversible decline thereafter. At the same time he predicted that world demand for crude oil would continue to rise and a shortfall of supply versus demand would begin as soon as the production peak was passed. Furthermore, the shortfall would accelerate as production fell off at an increasing rate, and there would be no backup supplier to make up the difference. Today, in the year 2008, it appears that Hubbertís peak has been passed (this event is now known as ìpeak oilî and an internet search will yield a wealth of information).

We are still too close to the event to be sure, but some analysts say it actually happened in 2006 while others say it will not happen until about 2013. This yearís rapid rise in crude oil prices, while not a definitive indicator, suggests it is here now.

Imagination conjures many alarming scenarios that a shortfall in crude oil gives rise to. Because crude oil is a concentrated source of energy, it is a liquid, and it is a hydrocarbon that provides the basic chemicals for almost everything manufactured in America, a shortage will damage both Americaís and the worldís economy quickly and perhaps permanently. Rising prices for everything will be followed by shortages and then absences of every product dependant on crude oil: fuels for heating, manufacturing, and transportation, chemicals for fabrics, plastics, medicines, and fertilizers, and ultimately food and shelter.

In a related study, the Olduvai Theory by Richard C. Duncan postulates that world population is dependant on and directly proportional to the amount of available energy. Thus, world population has risen exponentially in parallel with exponential crude oil production. As world crude production peaks (Duncan predicted in 2005 that it would peak in 2008) and begins an irreversible decline, world population must likewise do the same until it reaches a sustainable level close to what it was about 1930.

Today world population is about 6.9 billion; in 1930 it was about 2.0 billion. Duncan predicts this 4.9 billion decline in population will occur by 2030.

It is also likely that with no other liquid fuel immediately available to power military vehicles, governments will quickly confiscate available remaining supplies and will likely go to war to control others. Japan attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941 because America had embargoed shipments of oil in retaliation for the Japanese atrocities in China. With only a few months supply of oil available, Japan went to war to guarantee themselves a future supply. One can speculate that our government is acutely aware of this, and that our occupation of Kuwait and Iraq are early signs of a government policy to ensure our own future supply.

Resources and Man, the NAS-NRC report from 1969, predicted that population growth had to be to be halted and the need for a solution was urgent.

The report pointed out that this planet cannot support unlimited population growth because the available resources (fuels, food, metals) were finite and would eventually run out. We, the people, must become informed and become aware of the real problems we face. We must force our government to end partisan politics and to take steps to protect America.

Technological solutions are available to ameliorate the coming energy shortage, but they require a long time to implement, they require the use of a lot of energy (from crude oil) and a huge capital investment. The only issue of importance in the coming Presidential election is development of an effective national energy policy: all the other issues listed in the first paragraph are dependent on it.

Without such a policy these issues will become either irrelevant or critical to our survival as a nation.

J.W. Mulholland is a resident of Denver.

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