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KRIEGER: NFL's formula can swallow up reason

By Dave Krieger, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published January 31, 2008 at 12:45 a.m.

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Personnel geeks call it the triangle. It is a simple formula used at the NFL scouting combine by those who believe numbers make the player. The three legs of the triangle are height, weight and speed.

For four years running, from 2001 through 2004, the Broncos selected a triangle guy at, or near, the top of their draft.

Willie Middlebrooks, their first-round pick in 2001, was a triangle guy. Six-foot-1, 200 pounds, 4.39 in the 40. If you were building a cornerback, you would build him to roughly these specifications.

Ashley Lelie, the 2002 first-round pick, was a triangle guy. So were 2003 first- rounder George Foster and 2004 second-rounder Tatum Bell.

To greater or lesser extents, so were 2001 second-rounder Paul Toviessi, 2002 third-rounder Dorsett Davis and 2003 fourth-rounders Nick Eason and Bryant McNeal.

Unfortunately for the Broncos, all these guys had other issues and all disappointed them in the end.

So it is perhaps unsurprising that if you ask Scott Pioli, the Patriots' vice president of player personnel and two-time NFL executive of the year, to name the biggest mistake personnel people make, this is the one he chooses.

"I think one of the best lessons I learned was not getting too caught up in numbers, in things like height, weight, speed," Pioli said here this week.

"A guy that can run a 4.3 40, when you put him on the football field, where he has to see the play, process it and react, just because he can run a 4.3 40 doesn't mean his reactive speed is a 4.3. Not getting too caught up in numbers, I think, is important. And I made mistakes early in my career by getting caught up in the workouts."

You can see the results of this lesson all over the roster that will attempt to win New England's fourth NFL championship in seven years Sunday.

"We've got a team full of them," Pioli said. "Tom Brady. I mean, it was funny, Tommy took some heat recently when they showed the video on one of the games of him running his 40-yard dash. Now, Tommy's speed, running, has nothing to do with his pocket presence. Here's a guy, he has vision, he has a feel, he has a sense, he knows when to step up. So his athleticism is also due to his awareness.

"Tedy Bruschi. His instincts are incredible. They're rare. . . .

"Ty Warren's strength - I remember when Ty was coming out, his overall strength wasn't that great, but he has this brute strength.

"(Center) Dan Koppen is another guy. Dan Koppen's test numbers, when he works out, in terms of strength and power, aren't that good. But I haven't seen Danny Koppen powered back too often.

"Wes Welker's another guy. His long speed isn't that tremendous, but he has enough quickness and speed to avoid people."

The point is, many characteristics contribute to good football players. The triangle is easy to measure, so it becomes a shortcut for evaluators who lack the insight or instincts to judge those that are more difficult.

Many people call these harder-to-measure characteristics "intangibles." The Patriots do not.

"We don't allow our scouts to call those things intangibles," Pioli said. "It's a word that a lot of people use. But, in our minds, a person's work ethic, their work habits, their character, their accountability, their dependability, those things are very tangible."

It is a little early to judge, but the Broncos may be weaning themselves from the triangle. The 2006 draft, by far their best of the decade, included defensive end Elvis Dumervil, whose height - 5-11 - was so far from ideal it eliminated him from any number of draft boards.

Similarly, wide receiver Brandon Marshall was considered by some a physical 'tweener who might grow too big to play wide receiver but not quite big enough to play tight end. Both players have exceeded expectations already.

Last year, the Broncos may have leaned on the numbers more. The greatest asset of first-rounder Jarvis Moss, who started only one year in college, is the potential suggested by his enormous wingspan.

Relying on characteristics more difficult to measure, the Patriots' decision-making process requires both Pioli and coach Bill Belichick to be comfortable with a player before acquiring him.

"If we agree on a player, we think we know that we have a pretty good chance," Pioli said. "If we disagree, we trust the other person enough that they know something or they feel something that it's not going to work. And we've never really pushed it (past) that point. . . . If one of us isn't comfortable, we don't do it."

Whether the Broncos process is that collaborative, only those inside their offices know. But how the Patriots do it is worth examining. It's definitely working.

kriegerd@RockyMountainNews.com

Comments

  • January 31, 2008

    8:30 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    denverjason writes:

    somebody make sure shanahan gets a copy of this article

  • January 31, 2008

    10:14 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    tootalljones writes:

    teams especially the BRONCOS, have to look at work ethic and charachter, we have too many losers on the broncos. Sundquist and Shanahan have to decide on what type of player in all areas size speed, work ethic, likes the game, and competiviness BEST FITS THE BRONCOS.No more travis henrys and javon walkers, PLEEEEEASE. Pioli and belichick KNOW WHAT THEY WANT FOR THE PATRIOTS, I WONDER IF SUNDQUIST AND SHANAHAN DO?

  • January 31, 2008

    11:56 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    ibanez4206 writes:

    I have never understood why size was such a huge factor. Yes, it does wonders for your ability to take a hit. But last I checked, Maurice Jones-Drew does take too many hits dead on. He's got the presence of mind to know where to go.

    I honestly believe that Elvis' size is a huge ADVANTAGE. Think about it: you've got all these tall, massive, mostly immobile O-linemen in the league. They are used to going up against tall, massive D-linemen. Solution? Short, quick D-end. Elvis has the ability to get lower than the O-linemen. Hence, he has the advantage.

    Start looking at how a guy plays the game instead of how big he is.

  • January 31, 2008

    3:36 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    dirkle writes:

    I concur with denverjason.

    Pat Bowlen needs to sit down with Mike Shanahan and read him this column at least TWICE.

    Excellent column.

  • February 1, 2008

    8:12 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    Pigskin writes:

    Dave, you're asking to what degree Denver's process is "collaborative." I remember reading a story about the 2001 draft that brought to light how collaborative Denver is.
    Jack Elway was head of scouting and he and his staff really liked Chris Chambers. They advised Shanahan, begged him, pleaded with him to take the wide receiver. But The Mastermind ignored them and took Middlebrooks in round one, then with Chambers still on the board, took Toviessi in round two.
    Both of these players had broken legs when they were drafted, right? So much for the triangle.
    One pick later, Chambers went to Miami. This is the kind of collaborative process I still envision, but maybe Shanahan and Dumbquist have started listening to scouts. No way these two bumblers were in complete control of the last 2 drafts.