LITTWIN: A GOP primary in which every end is loose
By Mike Littwin, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)
Published January 19, 2008 at 12:30 a.m.
The South is different. It's as different as the Lizard's Thicket fast food chain here where you order your meat selection (choice of 10; I got the country fried steak) and your vegetables (choice of 3 of 20; I got collards, okra and tomatoes and your-definitely-non-vegetarian, pork-rich green beans) and, of course, your cornbread or biscuits, and then you put down your $6.25. Sweet tea is extra.
The South is different. And yet, my guess is, maybe not different enough.
As you may have heard by now, South Carolina is the proud anointer of Republican presidential candidates. Since 1980, no Republican has lost here and won the nomination.
Well, welcome to the 21st century.
Whatever you hear, no one really knows what's going to happen here today, and, more to the point, no one really knows what difference it will make once it does happen. (What I mean is, it actually snowed here the other night, and every political campaigner I know woke up screaming from nightmares of being back in New Hampshire.)
We've said before that the Republicans have entered into their own kind of chaos theory. Republicans don't like chaos, at least not in the presidential selection process, but, to this point, they can't seem to help themselves.
They've gone from Iowa (Huckabee) to New Hampshire (McCain) and back to Michigan (Romney) and now down South, where Romney was once the poll leader, or was it Giuliani, but now the polls - for what they're worth - say that McCain is slightly ahead of Huckabee, although I just talked to some of Huckabee's people who seem certain they're going to win.
The chaos is good only for those of us who love narratives with no clear ending. (See Nevada: Where the Democrats battle today, with caucuses actually taking place inside the casinos. These are the rules: You can either stay with Obama or double-down on Hillary.) But the Republicans are starting to panic. The choices seem to be between imperfect candidates and no candidate at all.
Here's my handy voter guide for what's at stake for each candidate here in South Carolina.
* Mike Huckabee - who just came out in favor of the Confederate flag and was already a Sweet Home Alabama guitar-playin' Southern Baptist minister - has to win here. If he can't win here, with his Southern roots and in a state with a Southern Baptist church on every corner, where exactly does he win next? He's playing his big cards here. He brought Chuck Norris and Ric Flair with him to Clemson University, where he promised that Norris would be his secretary of defense and Flair the head of Homeland Security. The kids loved it. And, for those who just can't have too much religion in the public square, Huckabee - referring to a marriage amendment - said that "what we need to do is to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards."
* John McCain - who's not in favor of the Confederate flag (this time), who doesn't, as far as I know, play the guitar but who is a war hero in a state where there are almost as many VFWs as churches - has to win here, too. If he doesn't, the story line is that the 2000 loss in South Carolina wasn't a fluke and that he can win only in New Hampshire. The other day in Spartanburg, McCain, channeling Joe Namath, told a group of reporters, "I will win here in South Carolina, and that's all there is to it." He brought with him to the event South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, who was met with more than a few boos. "Boo yourself," Graham told them, laughing. At another event, Graham - who is allied with McCain on Iraq and on illegal immigration - was reportedly greeted with chants of "Grahamnesty."
* Fred Thompson - who has to win here or go home - admits as much. He hasn't shown himself as a national candidate. A loss here, and he'd have trouble selling himself even as a regional candidate.
* Mitt Romney, meanwhile, is playing all the angles. He has left the state to go to Nevada for the Republican caucuses, but, at the same time, he has upped his TV ad buy here. He was scheduled to be on Jay Leno Friday night, borrowing from the Huckabee strategy in Iowa, which he, of course, bad-mouthed at the time. This time, Romney said it was the only way he knew how to be in South Carolina and Nevada simultaneously. Here's the kicker: Romney apparently doesn't have to win here in South Carolina because - here's the logic - no one expects him to win here.
* Oh, and Rudy Giuliani - still tanned, rested and ready in Florida - needs Huckabee to knock off McCain here, so he can present himself as the anti-Huckabee, meaning that, yes, he may be pro-choice, but at least he believes in evolution. Giuliani, once the national front-runner, is obviously in trouble. You know you're in trouble when the one word that almost always accompanies your poll figures is "plummeting."
Did I forget Ron Paul? No, I did not.
Did I mention that the situation was a bit, uh, fluid? Don't take my word for it. Here's what Rush Limbaugh is being quoted as saying about McCain and Huckabee on his radio show, "I'm here to tell you, if either of these two guys get the nomination, it's going to destroy the Republican Party, it's going to change it forever, be the end of it."
Limbaugh and others in the Republican establishment are backing Romney because McCain is a political apostate (fancy word for maverick) and Huckabee is a populist and Giuliani is pro-choice and, as everyone says, it's easier to say that no one can win this nomination than to see who might actually pull it off.
In a wonderful twist, McCain, the victim of dirty-tricks politics here in 2000, is hoping that South Carolinians will make it up to him here in 2008 by voting for him this time.
Of course, there are groups going after McCain this year, too. But it's also the strangest of political seasons, in which the two front-runners here have had almost nothing bad to say about the other.
In fact, on Friday, McCain put out a Web ad that shows clips of would-be rival Huckabee saying wonderful things about him, including this: "John McCain is a hero to this country. He's a hero to me."
Here's the closer: "If you want the truth about John McCain, just ask Mike Huckabee."
What else?
littwinm@RockyMountainNews.com
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January 18, 2008
9:57 p.m.
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ebsq writes:
Well...
Ron Paul will continue to be a thorn in the establishment's side (and apparently yours) as long as 'we' continue to fund him.
Yes - we are pouring money into his campaign - at the least to get his message out (you can thank us in a few years)... at best to get him into the whitehouse... and go figure, I bet we can encourage him to run as a 3rd party candidate if needed - you'll be seeing Dr. Paul for a long while - he still has 9 million in the bank (which his campaign has said they intend to spend BEFORE feb. 2). Hmmm - how much do the others have? Why won't they say?
Does he have a chance at the GOP nomination? Yep... when several others drop out and there is just Dr. Paul and someone else - well... the press will simply have to start covering him... Fox wouldn't be able to have a one-person debate (they might try though). See - he isn't dropping out :) - we keep sending him cash - and he pretty much said he will continue the fight while we fund him.
Finally, what service are you providing your readers by pulling a 'Fox News' on Ron Paul? Your readers should be insulted - you do them a true disservice by not giving them a chance to think for themselves.
Seriously Offended,
bill gillingham
January 19, 2008
4:49 a.m.
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DenisL writes:
After 3 well publicized races in Iowa, NH, and Michigan, we have 3 different winners. Ron Paul has hung in there with 6-10% of the vote with his worst showing in Michigan at 6% where he did not really campaign. Interestingly in the county with Hillsdale College Ron Paul got 17% of the vote. Romney, McCain, and Huckabee split the vote fairly evenly with 27%, 27% and 21%, respectively. Hillsdale College is likely the most conservative college in America. Ron Paul's ideas are strongest among the young people according to the exit polling.
I see great things in the future for REAL limited government policies in the Republican Party. Go Ron Paul and the freedom message!
We shall see what happens now that we are going wholesale, that is: Will Ron Paul's money combined with his ardent supporters help? California will be especially interesting, where there will be a county by county allotting of delegates, NOT based on population.
January 19, 2008
10:03 a.m.
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johnnm writes:
You don’t give Thompson the recognition he deserves. He is the only real Reagan conservative in the field and if papers and magazines stated that he would fair much better in the polls.
I believe many Republican voters don’t understand what is at stake here. There are at least 2 likely Supreme court judges up for retirement and a many lower federal judge vacancies coming up. Our war on terror is not over yet by any means and right now is an obvious crossroads for our Economy and illegal immigration. Tax or no tax? Who will do the things that we conservatives want our leader to do? McCain? No chance. Huckabee? Tax raiser and illegal immigrant appeaser. Absolutely not a true conservative. Romney? Maybe on the economy as I understand it was pro choice for a while. Wishy washy. Gulianni? Great on defense but pro choice, anti gun, and pro illegal immigration. The only choice for conservatives and Republicans is Thompson. That’s why I don’t get the polls. How can Fred be 4th? I thought SC was truly conservative. I could be wrong. Go Fred Thompson and God bless!
January 19, 2008
2:33 p.m.
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Newzaroo writes:
Governor Romney's Economic Stimulus Plan – Washington Must Act Now:
Governor Romney's Economic Stimulus Plan Would Provide Much-Needed Relief To Taxpayers, Businesses And Homeowners. Today, our economy is facing unprecedented challenges both here at home and abroad. Our economy needs pro-growth stimulus, but Governor Romney believes any stimulus package should return money to American taxpayers, not increase already out-of-control government spending. To promote economic growth, Governor Romney is proposing an economic stimulus plan that would lower taxes on individuals, reduce taxes for businesses and help homeowners through the current housing crisis.
- Individuals: Governor Romney would permanently reduce the lowest income tax bracket, permanently eliminate payroll taxes on seniors and make middle-class savings tax free.
- Businesses: Governor Romney would institute immediate 100% expensing of equipment for two years and permanently reduce the corporate tax rate.
- Homeowners: Governor Romney would reform and expand Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan portfolio limits to allow larger loans to homeowners.
Governor Romney Urges Our Leaders To Work Together And Immediately Debate, Pass And Sign A Stimulus Package For The American People. If our representatives in Washington can work together and demonstrate the leadership that the American people deserve, Governor Romney is optimistic that we can still turn this economy around. Washington must get to work immediately and pass a bill no later than February 19, a month from today, in order to stimulate our economy.
Details...
http://www.mittromney.com/News/Press-... _1.19
January 20, 2008
10:53 p.m.
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Gunderson writes:
Fred Thompson's speeches are great, and his views are solid, but he's not trying hard enough to get any real traction. He scored only half of McCain's numbers in the one Southern race so far. He has been almost invisible in every other contest, including Nevada, so it's not realistic to expect that he can get the nomination.
I would be very happy with Fred as the nominee. Unfortunately, it appears that he doesn't have enough steam to go the distance. Ron Paul's constitutional views are magnificent, but the world is to dangerous a place now for the US to be led by an isolationist. Romney is the only real conservative who will shine against the Democrat nominee. But unless conservatives get behind him, McCain will grab the nomination, only to crash and burn against Clinton or Obama when the voters take a closer look.