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Middle class for Avs

Aaron J. Lopez

Published January 7, 2008 at 12:45 a.m.

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Paul Stastny could follow in his father's footsteps by earning his first All-Star berth.

Photo by Doug Pensinger / Getty Images/2007

Paul Stastny could follow in his father's footsteps by earning his first All-Star berth.

Joe Sakic might be out seven to 11 more weeks.

Joe Sakic might be out seven to 11 more weeks.

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Back around the turn of the century, the midway point of the NHL season simply meant the Avalanche was halfway toward its inevitable playoff run.

The record, though often among the best in the league, was secondary to how Colorado stood among the Western Conference elite. Needs would be addressed before the trade deadline, and the Avalanche could charge toward its annual goal of winning the Stanley Cup.

As the post-lockout era has proved: That was then. This is now.

After 41 games, the Avalanche is neither a woebegone pretender nor a powerhouse contender but instead somewhere in between. Colorado is 22-16-3, eighth in the Western Conference.

"I think our record's a pretty fair assessment of our play," forward Andrew Brunette said. "We've gone through stretches that we've played very well and other stretches we haven't played very good.

"I still think we have another level that this team hasn't gotten to. We show glimpses of it, but when we're all healthy and we get going, I think we have another level to go to instead of just being in the middle of the conference."

Much of the Avalanche's second-half fortune, or misfortune, will be determined by how well it can compensate for the loss of its two best-compensated players, captain Joe Sakic and left wing Ryan Smyth.

Sakic is expected to miss the next seven to 11 weeks while recovering from hernia surgery. Smyth likely will be out eight weeks because of a fracture in his right ankle.

"There's nothing you can do about injuries," forward Milan Hejduk said. "We have to play without these guys and take care of business without them. We don't have a choice."

The Avalanche will start the second half of the season with a five-game business trip that begins Tuesday in Detroit. Considering the Avalanche is 6-10-3 on the road, the eight days starting Tuesday could be critical for its long-term playoff aspirations.

"We're in a good position," second-year forward Paul Stastny said. "If you asked us if we'd be in this position with the guys we've had hurt, I think we'd be happy. We're right in the middle of everything."

Rising star

With a team-leading 44 points (15 goals, 29 assists), Paul Stastny has been the most consistent Avalanche player and likely will earn his first All-Star selection.

"I think it's a no-brainer," forward Andrew Brunette said.

"I don't think it's fair if he's not (selected)."

Stastny's father, Peter, appeared in six All-Star Games while playing for the Quebec Nordiques, who later became the Avalanche.

At 22, Stastny could begin to close the gap on his talented father.

"That kid is going to be an All-Star for many, many years," Avalanche forward Ian Laperriere said.

Paltry dividends

The Avalanche spent $49.25 million on free agents Ryan Smyth and defenseman Scott Hannan during the offseason.

The early returns are disappointing, but Colorado fans should remember to think long term.

Smyth, who signed a five-year, $31.25 million contract, was off to a slow start (11 goals, 17 assists) before breaking his right ankle on New Year's Eve.

Hannan, who signed a four-year, $18 million deal, had a minus-15 rating Dec. 3 but has turned things around in the past 15 games, with one goal, five assists and a plus-7 rating playing about 23 minutes a game.

It depends on the definition of 'special'

If the Avalanche had to pinpoint one major area of weakness in the first half of the season, it would have to be its play on special teams.

The power-play unit is converting at a meager 13.5 percent success rate (28th in the league), and the Avalanche is at 80.8 percent on the penalty kill (22nd).

"Our special teams is probably the one area that could probably get us to the next level that we want to get to," coach Joel Quenneville said. "Moving up the ladder in those areas is what we're looking to do. . . . It's been a sore spot for us."

Streak in jeopardy

12consecutive seasons the Avalanche's power-play percentage has ranked in the top 10. Pittsburgh (four) has the second-longest active streak of top-10 finishes.

Homebodies

The Avalanche won 16 of 22 games at the Pepsi Center during the first half of the season, compared with only six of 19 road games. Some key statistics at home and on the road:

Category Home Road

Goals per game 3.41 2.21

Opponents' goals per game 2.59 3.16

Power-play percentage 17.5 8.0

Penalty-kill percentage 80.0 81.8

Et tu, Bruno?

After recording a career-high 83 points last season, Brunette has six goals and 21 assists, putting him on pace for only 54 points this season.

The 12-year veteran was at a loss to explain the drop-off.

"I don't know. Tough call," he said. "I just think it's been different circumstances. I can play better, but I'm not really disappointed with the way I've played. It's been up and down, I guess.

"When you do find the groove, something happens. It's been that way all year for me."

Joe Sakic's long-term absence hasn't helped Brunette, who played on the same line as the longtime Colorado captain in 2006-07.

Midterm grades

* Offense: Long-term injuries to Sakic and Smyth have slowed the scoring attack, but Stastny, Milan Hejduk (15 goals, 15 assists) and Marek Svatos (16 goals) have helped compensate for the losses. Only four teams in the Western Conference have more goals than the Avalanche (119). Grade: B minus

* Defense: Hannan and Brett Clark have been solid on the blue line, but the Avalanche could use more power-play production from free-agent-to-be John-Michael Liles. The absence of Kurt Sauer (concussion) leaves Hannan as Colorado's only big, physical defenseman. Grade: C plus

* Goaltending: The Avalanche entered the season with Peter Budaj and Jose Theodore competing to be No. 1. After the two alternated starts for the better part of two months, Budaj has established himself as 1A to Theodore's 1B. Grade: B

Numbers game

9Avalanche players have missed at least five games because of injury. Of those nine, six - Sakic, Hejduk, Laperriere, Sauer, Tyler Arnason and Brad Richardson - missed a combined four games because of injury in 2006-07. Richardson was reassigned Sunday to the Lake Erie Monsters of the American Hockey League.

He said it

"We showed that we have the kind of guys, the kind of leaders, we can beat any team. If you compare it to last year, we're really happy with the consistency. We just have to keep it in the same direction of being consistent."

Theodore, who made 23 saves in a 2-1 overtime win Saturday.

Predicting the future

As the old saying on Wall Street goes, past results do not guarantee future performance, but they can provide a clue as to where the Avalanche season is headed. With a 22-16-3 record and 47 points, the Avalanche is battling to keep pace in the crowded Western Conference playoff chase. How the Avalanche has fared through 41 games since the NHL began awarding points for overtime losses in 2000-01 and how it ended the season:

41-game Final

Season record Points record Points Playoff result

2006-07 21-18-2 44 44-31-7 95 Missed playoffs

2005-06 21-17-3 45 43-30-9 95 Lost in conference semifinals

2003-04 22-10-7-2 53 40-22-13-7 100 Lost in conference semifinals

2002-03 16-11-9-5 46 42-19-13-8 105 Lost in first round

2001-02 22-15-4-0 50 45-28-8-1 99 Lost in conference finals

2000-01 26-8-7-0 59 52-16-10-4 118 Won Stanley Cup

Comments

  • January 7, 2008

    1:33 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    TheVentilator writes:

    Too much youth was traded before the lock-out, It will take a bit of time to replenish.