Go to the mobile version of this Web site.

Login | Contact Us | Site Map | Paid archives | Electronic edition | Subscription Questions | Extras

Contest's fate now up to quirky system

By M.E. Sprengelmeyer, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published January 3, 2008 at 12:30 a.m.
Updated January 3, 2008 at 4:36 p.m.

Text size  

Related Links

Related Stories

More Elections

More stories »

ADEL, Iowa- Randy Hefner is just a bit nervous.

The basement of the First Christian Church could barely hold the few hundred folks who attended Adel's Democratic precinct caucuses in 2004.

Now, the experts are predicting a record-breaking turn-out tonight - perhaps boosted by big numbers of change- minded independents and disenchanted Republicans.

They should have gotten a bigger space, said Hefner, a local lawyer whose volunteer job is to "keep this train on the tracks" in Adel.

This is it - the night everyone has been talking about all year - the Iowa precinct caucuses.

Hopefully before the late-night newscasts, Iowans will help winnow the wheat from the chaff in the Republican and Democratic presidential contests.

The race is too close to call on both sides.

In the GOP, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney enter caucus night as Iowa favorites. But Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Sen. Fred Thompson also claim momentum in the contest, and backers of libertarian-leaning maverick Rep. Ron Paul believe they could stun the political establishment.

Among Democrats, the first contest in the race for the Democratic National Convention in Denver is a fierce, three-way fight among Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. And three others - New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Sens. Joe Biden of Delaware and Chris Dodd of Connecticut - all are vying to beat expectations so they can go forward.

The battle has been waged over the Internet, on the national television talk shows, in Iowans' mail boxes and in an incessant flood of human and electronic phone calls to Iowa voters.

But the real contest will be decided out in the trenches, at small, pot-luck style gatherings in 1,784 precincts scattered across the Hawkeye State.

The weather is adding to concerns for volunteer caucus chairs like Hefner.

Iowa is in the midst of a deep freeze - with mountains of old snow still covering every yard and temperatures rarely sneaking above 32 degrees. Hefner doesn't want to leave the most avid caucus-goers waiting out on the church steps before the moment the doors are supposed to open.

As a friend told him: "You know these old people. If you tell them, 'Well, be here at 6:30 p.m.,' they'll be there at 6."

In the 36-year history of the modern Iowa caucuses, this looks like it could be "The Big One." There's no incumbent president or vice president on the ballot. And with simmering issues like the war in Iraq, immigration, health care, terrorism, a mortgage foreclosure crisis and others, voters from both parties say they're motivated for change.

That seems especially true on the Democratic side, and so campaign volunteers like Kim Roby, a 46-year-old teacher and precinct captain for Obama, wonder how sites like the church basement in Adel are going to handle the crowds. "It's going to be way too small," Roby said.

The precinct caucuses are famously quirky and hard to predict based on prior public opinion polls. At Republican events, it's a simple straw poll. Folks show up, they indicate whom they are supporting, and candidates win a proportionate number of delegates to the Republican county conventions later this year.

But at Democratic caucuses, there's more "horse-trading" involved. Folks show up in places like Adel's church basement and group themselves based on which candidate they support.

After some preliminary business, a head count is taken. Any candidate who fails to get 15 percent support is deemed "unviable" - or ineligible to receive delegates. And that candidate's backers get courted to join one of the other groups.

This "second-choice" shuffle plays a big role in deciding which candidate walks away with the most delegates from that precinct. So the campaigns' precinct captains have been working on their best pitches - and preparing secret weapons, too.

In Adel, eight delegates are at stake. So Obama supporter Leslie Sheeder, 52, said she will spend all day today baking two double-batches of oatmeal cookies, a couple of pans of her famous scotcheroos and more.

This tradition goes back to her childhood, when her late parents, Florence and Bob Creech, used to host Democratic caucuses in the family living room.

"If someone's coming over to your house, it's coffee and cookies," she said. But that traditional hospitality comes with a catch this year.

"If you get an Obama sticker, you get a cookie," she said. Supporters of other campaigns might get leftovers, she said. But that might depend on what sort of mood she's in after the results.

sprengelmeyerM@SHNS.com or

Comments

  • January 3, 2008

    9:21 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    CDee writes:

    I don't know Hakj- but if we get all the politicians from Washington we can keep the wind farms working 24/7 for sure.

  • January 3, 2008

    11:20 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    Devil_Dog writes:

    Maybe we could institute a draft. We could draft citizens into the political arena, set up a fund (paid for through taxes) to pay for their campaigns, each candidate getting equal money and exposure. And most importantly no campaign contributions! Start them out in lower level political positions and they could bow out after serving the minimum term or elect to run for a higher office.
    Term limits would be set for all levels so you either quit, get voted out, or move up (there by gaining valuable experience. Not perfect and the kinks would need to be worked out but what we have now is a joke, we are moving rapidly towards a two tier class system with a very small ruling class, and everyone else. Not a government "For the People by the People".