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Voters reflecting spirit of West

Independent bloc trails GOP by just 12,000 people

By Burt Hubbard, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published February 23, 2008 at 12:30 a.m.

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Colorado's independent spirit is increasingly showing up in the electorate as unaffiliated voters are emerging as the biggest voting block and could make the state a key player in the November presidential election.

During the past five years, the percentage of independent voters has climbed steadily, eroding the state's Republican Party dominance.

And despite the Democratic Party's recent election successes in Colorado, the percentage of the electorate registered with the party has remained flat.

"I think here in this state, it's really a reflection of the Western voter for the most part," said Pat Waak, chair of the Colorado Democratic Party. "They actually want to preserve this sort of identity, of being independent and being able to cross over party lines."

The latest voter registration figures from the Secretary of State show that Republicans outnumbered unaffiliated voters in January only by about 12,000 people, 34.8 percent compared to 34.4 percent. In January 2004, the spread was almost five percentage points, 37 percent to 32.2 percent. Since then, unaffiliated registration has steadily increased.

During the same time, the Democratic Party has remained at about 30 percent of the electorate even though the party captured the governor's mansion and the state legislature.

"At a time when people are unhappy with the status quo, it doesn't mean they immediately leap into the opposite camp," said Katy Atkinson, political analyst and Republican strategist.

Colorado mirrors the national trend, according to pollsters. The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found a sharp increase in voters who consider themselves independent between 2006 and the end of 2007, rising from 30.3 percent to 33.7 percent

Pollster John Zogby calls it the rebirth of the political center in the U.S.

Kenneth Bickers, chair of the Political Science Department at the University of Colorado at Boulder, said several factors account for the rise in independents in Colorado.

Bickers said the increasing number of voters unhappy with government in general are shunning both political parties.

"I think it's a 'pox on both your houses' argument," he said.

Others feel political parties are not doing a good job on the grassroots level to get people registered and mobilized to vote, Bickers said. For example, in Colorado, the caucuses don't tend to draw as many people as primary elections, he said.

"Caucuses, by and large, don't recruit very many new voters for parties," Bickers said.

In addition, political parties, particularly the Republican Party in Colorado recently, have emphasized issues that don't resonate with independent voters, said John Straayer, Colorado State University political science professor.

"They (the parties) have to ask themselves what people are talking about at the kitchen table these days," Straayer said. "And I don't think they are talking about guns and gays. I think they are talking about college tuition, the congestion on I-70 and I-25, health care questions."

With a large percentage of unaffiliated voters, Colorado could play a prominent role in the November elections for president and control of Congress, said political analyst and consultant Eric Sondermann.

Sondermann said he thinks Colorado will be one of about a dozen swing states in the presidential race.

"That's a role we haven't been in before," Sondermann said.

With control of the U.S. Senate up for grabs, the open seat in Colorado will be one of the top targets for both parties, he said. "I think the increasingly unaffiliated registration and the declining Republican plurality just attests to the fact that we are very much a swing bellwether state."

Comments

  • February 23, 2008

    7:16 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    greenleaf writes:

    nospmisjo,

    Putting up the fence implies that you want to keep something out. As in keeping independent voters out of the state.

    I can't speak for every independent, but as a lifelong Colorado native and independent voter I think Republicans are guilty of seriously underestimating our impact on big elections. You do so at your peril, and by the way, it's much to late to put up a fence!

  • February 23, 2008

    9:03 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    Dhakala writes:

    What is so difficult about registering as a Democrat in places like Weld, Mesa and El Paso counties?

  • February 23, 2008

    9:53 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    David_R writes:

    I can only speak for myself and a handful of friends who were formerly registered members of the Republican Party and are now unaffiliated.

    The GOP left us, we didn't leave them. While there always has been a basic similarity between the core platform of both parties, the GOP USED to stand more for the individual, smaller more efficient government, more transparency and objectivity in governing and fiscal responsibility. Definitely not the case anymore.

    The GOP now reflects as core values run away fiscal irresponsibility (12 years of running congress spending like compulsive drunks with an unlimited trust fund backing their largeness), secrecy in government under the guise of protecting the American way of life, excessive corporate welfare and brokered political candidates and power. The well being of the average citizen, ensuring a level playing field for all in this country has been pushed to the back burner for the sake of corporate greed and power.

    The last US Senatorial and Colorado Gubernatorial races are prime examples. In place of candidates chosen by the people of the Republican party, the candidates forced down the throats of the GOP were hand chosen by power brokers -- a beer baron with no political experience for senate, and a congressman who never saw a corporate welfare bill (screw the consumer and working class citizen or small businesses) he didn't embrace.

    I'm "typical" of what the GOP used to represent. I'm a small business man who employs 83 people -- I used to employ 131 before our economy was ravaged by irresponsible fiscal policy and heavy advantage was handed to multinational corporations at the expense of small, local companies. While I'm not in fear of losing my company, I can't trust government, especially the GOP, to provide a level playing field in which my company and employees can compete.

    The economic profile espoused by the government is smoke and mirrors. A prime example is the stable, if not growing number of employed. I have former employees who lost their job due to downsizing who used to make around $15.00 an hour, with benefits, now working at Mickey D's for $8.85 an hour, without benefits. The job creation in this country is primarily low paying service industry work.

    Both parties are controlled by power elites seeking to ensure their own values and advantages over the will of the people. I feel our only recourse is to seek out those candidates of either party (or third party) that can help break the downward cycle the general population is spiraling in.

  • February 23, 2008

    10:29 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    JohnSWren writes:

    http://cocacop.meetup.com/2

  • February 24, 2008

    12:01 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    politwriter writes:

    Independents take all kinds of forms. The most notable independent force electorally has been the "Reagan Democrats," -- economic populists and social conservatives -- who have left the GOP in droves due to neglect of the conservative social agenda by the 2 Bushes.

    The biggest dropoff in voter participation this time around seems to be among conservative white men -- likely because they were given no clear conservative option.

    As Barack Obama's leftist associations and voting record become more apparent, they may yet gravitate to McCain. But I think McCain has to make a seriously apologetic reversal of his amnesty stance for that to happen.