RINGOLSBY: NL questions are plentiful

By Tracy Ringolsby, Rocky Mountain News

Published February 1, 2008 at 12:45 a.m.

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Photo by Gene J. Puskar / Associated Press/2007

All eyes will be on Brewers pitcher Ben Sheets, especially those of manager Ned Yost, left, this year after the right-hander spent time on the disabled list last season.

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Adding Dan Haren to a pitching staff led by Brandon Webb gives Arizona as strong a 1-2 as any team in baseball.

What the Diamondbacks are waiting to find out is whether Randy Johnson, at age 44, can bounce back from his third back operation and fill the No. 3 slot.

The rest of the National League is wondering if:

* ATLANTA: Left- hander Tom Glavine still has some fuel in his tank.

* CHICAGO: Catcher Geovany Soto can turn impressive numbers for 30 big-league games over two Septembers into seasonlong production.

* CINCINNATI: Closer Francisco Cordero can find late-inning happiness in the hitter-friendly world of Great America Ballpark.

* COLORADO: Jayson Nix, the Rockies' highest draft pick in 2001, can carry over his World Cup MVP showing to fill the second base void.

* FLORIDA: Anybody cares about this franchise, which plays in front of empty seats and finds no public support for a much-needed stadium.

* HOUSTON: Shortstop Miguel Tejada can put to rest speculation he no longer has the range to avoid a move to third base.

* LOS ANGELES: Jason Schmidt can give them some type of return on their three-year, $47 million investment after spending the first year of the deal undergoing surgery.

* MILWAUKEE: Right-hander Ben Sheets can stay healthy after spending time on the disabled list each of past three seasons and six times in his career.

* NEW YORK: Outfielder Moises Alou can put together one final full season.

* PHILADELPHIA: Right-hander Brad Lidge can rebound from the questions created by inconsistent use of him by former Astros manager Phil Garner.

* PITTSBURGH: Outfielder Jayson Bay will finish the season - or even start it - in a Pirates uniform.

* ST. LOUIS: Manager Tony La Russa can cope without longtime ally Walt Jocketty in charge.

* SAN DIEGO: Brian Giles, whose production has slipped, can bounce back from microfracture surgery on his knee and provide an offensive lift.

* SAN FRANCISCO: Aaron Rowand can make good on his five-year, $60 million deal and find happiness in the pitcher-friendly, defensively challenging AT&T Park and avoid being moved out of center field.

* WASHINGTON: Outfielders Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes can check their excess baggage at the door and turn their athletic skills into big-league impact.

Overheard

* Boston is looking for a left-handed bat, and with Brad Wilkerson expected to land in Seattle, the Red Sox are looking at Sean Casey.

* Right-hander Livan Hernandez, who had been on hold with the Mets in case they didn't land Johan Santana, now is telling interested teams that he has an offer to return to Washington.

* San Diego would like to reacquire Xavier Nady from Pittsburgh but hasn't made much progress. The Padres could wind up signing Mike Sweeney to provide right-handed power off the bench.

Readers' turn

Bruce Mabry writes, "With the Rockies' strong finish, making it to the World Series, will they be picked to win the NL West finally?"

Bruce, I'd say the Rockies will primarily be selected to finish third or fourth in the division. Because the Rockies are a young team with players still developing, they did not make any offseason splashes, which gets the attention of the oddsmakers.

Remember the odds are based on how oddsmakers think bettors will wager, not from any scientific approach. As a result, it seems a certainty that Arizona and Los Angeles will be above the Rockies in most predictions and San Diego will slip in there occasionally. San Francisco should be a consensus last-place prediction.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which advises casinos on odds for sporting events, actually has the Rockies, Padres and Dodgers all listed at 22-1 to win the World Series with Arizona at 18-1. Boston is the overall favorite at 9-2.

As for the NL West, San Francisco is the longest shot at 85-1. Washington faces the biggest odds overall, however, at 200-1.

For answers to other questions or to ask questions of your own, check out the Rockies Inbox at RockyMountainNews.com/sports.

Two cents' worth

Minnesota general manager Billy Smith has tough shoes to fill. Terry Ryan was a master at making a low-budget operation succeed.

Smith needs to learn to avoid overanalyzing. A key for a general manager to have success is to have a plan, stick to it and not second-guess himself.

The Twins got hung up in to many "what ifs" when they marketed left-hander Santana, and the hesitation cost them greatly.

Instead of being able to land an impact player such as center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury from Boston or Ian Kennedy from the Yankees, the Twins found themselves with four projectable, but far from certain, stars from the Mets in exchange for Santana.

After two months of waiting and wondering, the Red Sox and Yankees, both of whom originally had stronger offers than the deal the Twins got from the Mets, called Smith's bluff.

ringolsbyt@RockyMountainNews.com

NUMBERS GAME

28 of 173 potential base stealers thrown out last season by Washington's newly signed catchers, Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada.

IN THE MIX

Cleveland left-hander C.C. Sabathia, below, has a major stake in Johan Santana's deal with the Mets, which is expected to be about $130 mil- lion for six years. Sabathia is a potential free agent in the fall, and his agent currently is talking with the Indians about a long-term extension.

HE SAID IT

"I don't think I'll ever totally put behind me what happened. It's etched forever as part of the picture. Good or bad, it's all part of the journey. . . . It was a pretty magnified incident on a big stage. The outcome is what it is. And not once, but twice."

Trevor Hoffman, Padres closer, on failing to close out save situations twice in the last three days of the 2007 season, costing the Padres the NL wild card. It was the second time in a decade Hoffman has blown two straight saves. The other time was in April.

MILE HIGH WATCH

* Scheduling is never easy, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of thought put into trying to make travel as easy as possible.

In 2008, the Rockies will make three trips to Los Angeles, and none of those is paired with visits to nearby San Diego. The Rockies do have a Los Angeles-San Francisco trip in the final six days of April. The next L.A. trip, however, takes the Rockies to Wrigley Field for four games (May 29 to June 1) before they head to Los Angeles. Their third visit to Los Angeles, in August, is combined with a trip to Washington.

The Rockies also don't get the convenience of a Milwaukee-Chicago trip. While their trip to play the Cubs is tied into the Dodgers series, the Rockies' annual visit to Milwaukee comes before a weekend series against the Mets at Shea Stadium before the All-Star break.

* Manny Corpas was a pleasant development for the Rockies last season. He goes into spring training as the team's closer, and he did a marvelous job in that role in the final half of last season.

But there's also the need for a reality check.

So far, Corpas has been a closer for only half a big-league season and about two months in the minor leagues. That explains why the Rockies are reluctant to get too caught up in multiyear conversations with his agent.

* Right-handed pitcher Jorge Julio has signed a minor league deal with Cleveland and will be invited to spring training. A key stat of interest to the Indians was Julio's 2.86 ERA in 32 games at Coors Field last season.

* Former Cherry Creek High School right-hander David Aardsma now is with Boston.

A No. 1 draft pick of San Francisco when he came out of Rice University, Aardsma showed signs in April of what originally drew scouts to him - he was 2-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 201/3 innings for the White Sox. But he couldn't maintain that pace and finished the season at Triple-A Charlotte (N.C.).

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