Colorado to lose thousands of jobs in 2009, report says
The Rocky
Published December 8, 2008 at 7:24 a.m.
Photo by Preston Gannaway © The Rocky
(PG936) Norman Garman (cq), of Greeley, fills out paperwork for a prospective employer at a job fair in Longmont, Colo., on Wednesday, November 20, 2008. Garman, a former truck driver, was looking for a career change since he stopped working after a truck accident. (PRESTON GANNAWAY/ROCKY MOUNTAIN NEWS)
Job seekers, take note. You might have more company soon.
University of Colorado economists expect the state unemployment rate to rise to 6.5 percent next year as the state joins the rest of the U.S. in a recession.
The rate was 5.7 percent in October.
A forecast released today by CU-Boulder's Leeds School of Business predicts Colorado will lose jobs in 2009 for just the seventh time since annual records have been kept since 1939.
Economist Richard Wobbekind of CU said he expects 4,000 job losses next year.
As of November, the Office of State Planning and Budgeting was predicting a 5 percent unemployment rate for 2009. The office is expected to issue its latest quarterly revenue and economic forecast later this month.
The CU team said businesses and customers spooked by the national recession; the credit and housing crises; and stock market instability all point to a gloomy forecast for 2009.
CU economists expect many industries to shed jobs next year, led by 11,200 job losses in the construction industry.
While more job losses are expected in manufacturing, Wobbekind said the employment level appears to be stabilizing.
"Overall the area probably won't fall much further, and we are also hearing more companies saying they are pulling back manufacturing to the U.S. where the transportation costs are less significant," Wobbekind said.
The CU forecast expects the natural resources and mining, education and health services, and government sectors to weather the recession the best.
Private businesses and the professional and business services sector also should see gains, but retail, the information sector, finance and insurance, and real estate are expected to cut jobs, according to the forecast.
Government will add about 4,400 jobs, mostly in local education, as Colorado adds an estimated 98,100 residents in 2009, the forecast said.
The short-handed educational services and health services sector should continue to grow during the downturn, as it has every year in the last decade, with about 7,000 new jobs.
The energy sector will grow but at a slower rate as global demand slows. Meanwhile, higher costs for feed, fuel, fertilizer, seed and land will keep the agriculture industry from making gains in 2009.
It should be a slower year for tourism and the leisure and hospitality industry, although lower fuel prices should encourage more people to visit state and national parks.
Good snow could help the ski industry though, and voters in casino towns may choose to raise betting limits, which could boost gambling tax revenue, the CU team said.
In agriculture, net income is expected to dip slightly next year due to surging feed, fuel, fertilizer, seed and land costs.
Exports are expected to dip 3 percent next year after rising about 5 percent this year. The increase was driven in part by a weak dollar that made U.S. goods more attractive and the reopening of beef markets, among other factors.
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December 8, 2008
8:12 a.m.
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windbourne writes:
And yet, when I was pushing the idea of allowing gambling at DIA, by having a local company create new terminals devoted to shopping/gambling, I was shot down by a few posters. Sadly, these are jobs that would have helped out a great deal.
December 8, 2008
8:33 a.m.
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liveforpowder writes:
are these the same people who predicted crude oil barrel prices around $250 next year?
December 8, 2008
8:45 a.m.
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BikerChick writes:
..
TELLING US LIES ABOUT THE THE REAL UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS IS A SCAM.
..
Colorado unemployment is MUCH higher than this story tells us.
Politicians and the U S Chamber of Commerce have pressured the U S Dept of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics) to avoid scaring We-the-People by intentionaly obfuscating and using black magic to make the unemployment numbers appear lower.
For example, we have observed tens of thousands of jobs sub-contracted to foreign companies that deliver services at highly discounted rates. The U S workers, often highly-skilled, who are displaced are not counted as 'unemployed.'
There are millions of loyal legal U S citizens who are caught in a catch-22 - unable to find work. These folks are not counted by the BLS as unemployed, but are rather counted in an invisible category called 'chronically unemployed.'
The bottom line for Coloradans is simple; to see a true picture, multiply the 'official' unemployed numbers by a factor of three.
There are hundreds of thousands of Coloradans who are experiencing unbearable pain, and cannot pay the unconscionably high taxes. Why is our 'fat' state government not cutting jobs to reduce costs. A 'freeze' on hiring is not nearly enough.
The governor MUST cut the payroll by ten percent and ask the remaining state workers to deliver more services with less cost. They are clever folks - who will deliver, but he has yet to ask.
It would be nice if Gov. Ritter were to get that message, and commence immediately to drastically cut state government labor costs - so the hundreds of thousands of Coloradans who have lost their jobs, lost their homes, and lost their vehicles will see their political leaders and government sharing the pain.
It is astounding that the CO General Assembly has not demanded an immediate and appropriate action from the rah-rah Governor. We are in month 13 of a 42 month recession-depression. THIS IS SERIOUS STUFF.
Telling us lies about the real unemployment numbers is a CRIMINAL scam. Maybe the local media will investigate ? Probably not.
..
December 8, 2008
9:22 a.m.
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Outlaw writes:
We have already lost thousand of jobs. They went to illegals. Now there will be even more AMERICANS out of work.
December 8, 2008
9:28 a.m.
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INC writes:
Luckily tings will not be as bad during this republican caused depression. As last time around the republicans had succeeded in legislating morality too. (prohibition) Back then no one could even have a drink legally. At least this time we can have a drink of alcohol, to numb harsh reality just a bit.
as well as the taxes on that alcohol will help to turn things around faster this time.
December 8, 2008
9:58 a.m.
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Diff writes:
Colorado has in the past lagged a bit behind the US economy timing wise, as far as these down turns go, and we also generally fair a bit better than the US economy during these times. I would expect it to be the same this time around - but it is going to be a tough and longer down turn this time - and the recovery will be slow.
windbourne - How would gambling at DIA help?
The revenues from gambling are down in all three gaming districts in Colorado and most places elsewhere in the US. Are you somehow suggesting that Gaming at the airport would have insulated Colorado from rising unemployment?
BikerChick - what is the motivation for the Division of Labor to "lie" about unemployment rates? Where did you find information that supports our unemployment being so much higher?
How much higher? There are different ways to
December 8, 2008
10:02 a.m.
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Diff writes:
opps --
Different ways to to run the numbers and sources of statistics...
The state (and the Federal # too for that mater) come from those who are applying for unemployment - the rate of those who are able yet not working is always higher than the "unemployment rate" as stated. It is based on the number of people actually looking for work.
December 8, 2008
10:10 a.m.
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River_Bolden writes:
Now is a good time to buy real estate.
Buy now or be priced out forever.
wink....wink....
:)
-RB
December 8, 2008
10:17 a.m.
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athought writes:
INC: Prohibition ended in 1933 and the depression really didn't end until 1938-39 with the creation of the lend/lease arms agreement with Great Britain and piecemeal annullment of Smoot-Hawley tariffs. So there were at least 5 depression years that were wet and it's widely believed that more alcohol consumed during prohibition, per capita, than any other time in US. Factor in that the depression really didn't get going until Smoot-Hawley and you only have one or two dry depression years. The GOP is responsible for a lot of things but your assertion the Great Depression was dry is not true.
December 8, 2008
12:06 p.m.
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leavemealone writes:
Whatever.....colorado is on the up-swing!!!
December 8, 2008
12:19 p.m.
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River_Bolden writes:
"colorado is on the up-swing"
elaborate?
-RB
December 8, 2008
12:28 p.m.
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BikerChick writes:
..
Nonsense. Colorado is sliding downhill. Colorado will hit bottom in 2011, and begin recovery in 2012.
DO NOT BUY REAL ESTATE UNTIL 2012, unless you enJoy losing money.
The cheer-leaders have a dog in this mess. Don't believe them.
..
December 8, 2008
12:32 p.m.
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HopiMedicineMan writes:
There was no reason to end prohibition. The sale and consumption of alcohol had nothing to do with the fundamental health of the economy. And without Smoot-Hawley, there would have been no product to lend-lease.
December 8, 2008
12:42 p.m.
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Logical writes:
BikerChick, you claim to have hard numbers, but you don't support them. Plus, you rant about jobless numbers being understated, then you call for the government to fire more workers, which would add to the unemployed rolls. You don't make much sense. You seem to be an alarmist and conspiracy-theorist. I don't pay much attention to either.
Inc, I don't see how you can say the republicans legislated morality that caused this recession. A big factor is the democrat-mandated lending to sub-prime borrowers, over-extending credit, etc. You also seem to ignore that the economy moves in cycles, and that there will always be corrections. This is a correction in high wages and high prices, exacerbated by the weak-dollar policy and credit mistakes. Lots of factors here, contributed to by both parties. Maybe if the politicians quit looking out for their re-election, and made sound policies, we would have more time between corrections/recessions, but we would still have corrections periodically.
December 8, 2008
12:52 p.m.
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windbourne writes:
From diff -" How would gambling at DIA help?
The revenues from gambling are down in all three gaming districts in Colorado and most places elsewhere in the US. Are you somehow suggesting that Gaming at the airport would have insulated Colorado from rising unemployment? "
Insulated? Nope.
Help? Yup.
You have to build those terminals (D and E). In addition, part of the revenue would be used on DIA payoff, other airport payoffs and tourism.
December 8, 2008
1:25 p.m.
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market_man writes:
100,000 people moving into Colorado next year and virtually no new construction, anyone think the rental market will do well?
December 8, 2008
1:27 p.m.
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chickenlittle1234 writes:
BikerChick - I agree with your recommendation on real estate in general. The residential market may not be in as bad of shape, because I think we've seen the worst of the foreclosures locally. That doesn't mean that foreclosures won't remain high - they will - but I think they'll have less of an impact going forward. On the other hand, commercial real estate is likely to be in the toilet for much longer. 2012 may be too soon, though based on previous cycles, that sounds about right.
With respect to the cuts that "need" to be made in state government, keep in mind that a lot of what the federal government used to fund has been pushed to the states, thus increasing their (our) costs. I agree, states such as Colorado will end up having to cut services, but also keep in mind that those cuts - here and in every other state - have an impact on the national GDP. We are already seeing contractions in consumer spending, with much more to come, and we're also seeing contractions on business investment. Given that the world is now in recession, it's highly unlikely that our trade imbalance will shrink enough to help appreciably, which leaves government as the only place for investment to come from. That's largely why Obama is already pitching his infrastructure plan - it puts money back into the economy and creates jobs at a time when the private sector can't.
December 8, 2008
1:39 p.m.
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chickenlittle1234 writes:
market_man - Don't forget that a foreclosed and vacant house is probably in the rental pool. That is effectively new construction - certainly new supply.
December 8, 2008
2:05 p.m.
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market_man writes:
chickenlittle1234:
Yes that is new supply, but where are the occupants who were foreclosed on going to live?
December 8, 2008
3:23 p.m.
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matadco writes:
Have you noticed one employer that is not reducing its labor force--GOVERNMENT! Interesting thing about government, they produce nothing but are able to increase their workforce to do more of nothing. The problem is we, the people, are forced to donate more of our earned income to allow government to increase its workfore. It makes no difference whether it is feast or famine, government grows.
December 8, 2008
3:23 p.m.
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Marshdale writes:
Biker Chick: I like your thinking. It is obvious things are way worse than we are being told. A friend of mine works for a civil engineering company who employed 175 people a year ago. They are now down to 56 and the company is dropping all health care coverage for the rest of them. My boss at my second job ran an add for a wait staff person the other day. He got 63 applicants the next day. Things are bad. REALLY BAD!!!!
December 8, 2008
3:29 p.m.
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Marshdale writes:
matadco: You are wrong. Government offices are making people take unpaid furlough days all over the place. Not only that, when somone quits or retires many gov offices are not replacing those people/positions. You need to read what is going on a little more. This economy is affecting every sector of the work force including government employees.
December 8, 2008
4:23 p.m.
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chickenlittle1234 writes:
matadco - To follow up Marshdale's comments, Health and Education Services have also continued to expand, though that sector is also experiencing slower growth. Plus, government (federal, state and local combined) account for between 17-18% of real GDP. Most of that amount is consumption by state and local governments. National defense accounts for about 4.7%, whereas state and local governments account for nearly 11%. Take out government, and we're looking at a depression, rather than a nasty recession.
December 8, 2008
4:28 p.m.
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chickenlittle1234 writes:
market_man - I agree, that's what is likely to happen, which indicates a net zero gain in rental demand. Also, in bad times, renters are more likely to double up or move back with mom and dad. In the last recession, you could find better deals on 1 bedroom units for that reason. Still, you're generally right that the apartment market isn't likely to see wholesale carnage because of the relative lack of new construction. Downtown and the Platte Valley could be the exception.