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BROWN: VP pick Palin is a gamble

By Peter Brown, Special to the Rocky

Published August 30, 2008 at 12:05 a.m.

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Sarah Palin could well be a game-changer, one way or another.

Even given the truism that few people vote for or against the vice presidential nominee, John McCain's selection of the Alaska governor as his running mate has the potential to be the exception to that rule.

Perhaps more important, the selection of Palin, who is virtually unknown outside the Great White North, will put to rest any notion that McCain is just another Washington politician rooted in the past and unable to think outside the box.

The question is whether his pick of the 44-year-old Palin will - in the end - be seen as a stroke of genius or a pick by an older guy waiting for a stroke.

The next few weeks will be a furious race between the Republicans and Democrats to define Palin for the American people.

Without doubt, no one in modern American history has been so little known before being tapped as a vice presidential candidate.

Moreover, her Alaskan upbringing and lifestyle will be viewed as both a curiosity by some, and probably weirdness by others.

The threshold question is whether by November - not necessarily by tomorrow - voters decide she could be president of the United States if something happened to McCain.

If so, she has the potential to help with key voter groups - women, hunters, rural residents and social conservatives, the last of which have been skeptical of McCain.

If not, McCain's candidacy could well be toast.

Democrats will no doubt seek to raise questions about Palin's fitness to be a heartbeat from the presidency - especially since at 72, McCain would be the oldest person ever elected president for the first time.

But they will have to walk a tightrope in that effort for two reasons:

First of all, doing so could undercut their own presidential nominee, Barack Obama, who is only two years older than she and has only a slightly beefier resume.

And then there is the problem of running against a woman, which Obama discovered during his Democratic primary campaign against Hillary Clinton.

Obama is most likely to be successful in raising questions in the minds of many voters in urban areas, which are reliably Democratic, but her potential would be greatest in rural and exurban America and could be helpful in some important battleground states.

Palin has been governor of Alaska for two years, winning office by beating a scandal-plagued governor of her own party with a campaign keyed to ending government corruption.

Politically, she touches myriad bases both for Republicans and, most important, swing voters, especially, but not exclusively, women. Not necessarily Hillary voters - who may be ideologically uncomfortable with her conservative views - but, more crucially, suburban women who struggle to balance work and family and may instinctively want to give a sister a chance.

Palin, who calls herself a "hockey mom," has five children, and went ahead with the most recent one earlier this year after genetic tests told her the child would have Down syndrome. Her husband is part Eskimo, a commercial fisherman, oilfield worker and union member.

Palin, who hunts, fishes and likes moose burgers, is a marathon runner and conservative Christian whose oldest son is to be deployed to Iraq next month.

She is both a former beauty queen and high school point guard who earned the nickname "Sarah Barracuda" for playing the state championship game, which her team won, with a stress fracture in her ankle.

Unknown is whether the early negative reaction by Washington insiders, including many Republicans, that she undercuts McCain's campaign theme that he has the experience that Obama lacks to guide the country in a dangerous world will become the thinking in the heartland.

The pick surprised many analysts who had expected McCain to take a "safe choice," probably a white male governor or senator well-known to the media because, after trailing by double-digits in national polls, he had closed to a dead heat entering this week's Democratic convention.

But McCain ultimately decided that, given the ailing economy, unpopular war and less popular GOP president, all of which benefit Obama, he had to take a riskier path.

Peter A. Brown, formerly the chief political writer for Scripps Howard, is the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute and a weekly columnist for The Wall Street Journal online.

Comments

  • August 30, 2008

    10:35 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    Existentalism writes:

    McBush was a joke before all of this, now he is an even bigger joke.
    He has already proven that he is willing to run one of the dirtiest campaigns in history, right behind his political hero, Bush the liar.
    Now he expects the American people to elect him just because he has chosen a female as his running mate.
    And to prove what an moron she really is, she has been an outspoken advocate that there is no such thing as global warming, maybe she spent too much time in an igloo.

  • August 30, 2008

    10:42 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    janfan writes:

    I take offense, as I would assume Sarah Palin would, to your insensitive and ignorant comment that she "went ahead with the most recent (child) after genetic tests told her the child would have Down syndrome". You are implying the child is not perfect, so it would be typical for a woman to abort it. And because Mrs. Palin didn't abort hers, it proves her pro-life stance. Your comment is an insult to all Down Syndrome children and adults. It is an insult to families with Down Syndrome children. It is an insult to mothers and especially to Sarah Palin. Maybe, just possibly Mrs. Palin brought her son into the world regardless of his challenges because she actually just loves him and wouldn't think of denying him his life. She could be pro-choice or pro-life, it has no bearing. Why do you assume women would throw away the life growing inside them just because the child isn't completely healthy? Mrs. Palin is pro-life and I applaud her stance, but I would bet there are many women in this world who are pro-choice and still would choose and have chosen to carry their imperfect babies to term.

  • August 30, 2008

    10:50 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    janfan writes:

    Existentalism,
    Your name-calling is very mature of you (not). If all democrats are as mature as you I'm sure the country would do wonders under such a regime. It shows your fear and insecurity, IMO, to lash out at Ms. Palin by calling her a moron.

  • August 30, 2008

    11:28 a.m.

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    JYP3500 writes:

    Peter, good article. It's fair, balanced and informative. How did it get past the RMN editors?

    Too bad there aren't more writers like you on staff, maybe the RMN would actually appeal to more people and stay solvent.

  • August 30, 2008

    11:42 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    HolierThanThou writes:

    Sarah Palin asks:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bk20Iy...

    "What is it that a VP does every day?"

    Um...most of us who have taken civics class know that the vice president presides over the Senate. If you read up on the job then you'll discover that you also get a Senatorial vote where you can break a tie. The president can assign other duties to your office. Al Gore reorganized the federal bureaucracy saving us billions of dollars.

    In your case, Sarah, McCain will probably give you the job of firing people who refuse to fire other people for political reasons or merely because they make him mad. At least that's a field where you have plenty of real experience.

  • August 30, 2008

    12:33 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    HopiMedicineMan writes:

    Janfan,
    The decision on life nowadays is based on "quality of life," rather than the "intrinsic value" of a human life. The mystery is gone. It's all about materialism. Many of us would not have lives today if Roe/Wade had been passed say in the '40s.

    Whole tribes are being taken out by the abortion reaper.

    It's interesting to me that so many are so bitter who were saved from the doctor's knife post Roe/Wade.

  • August 30, 2008

    2:47 p.m.

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    Broncody writes:

    I like Mrs. Palin. She has charisma. My sister has downsyndrom and she is the most loving and happy person I could ever hope to meet and to anybody who thinks a person is any less because they are mentally retarded, you should do the world a favor and just go sit in a corner and rot in your ignorance for the rest of your life. I appologize for my bluntness it is just a sensitive subject for me.

  • August 30, 2008

    3:05 p.m.

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    johnhenry writes:

    McCain VP and his rash behavior -- Country at Risk
    More rash dangerous decisions.

    McCain only talked with his VP choice last week. He just does not know her. McCain is willing to make a decision that could impact the country on one conversation!!!

    And we all know that McCain still has cancer. He looked death in the eye 2 times. Once was just after the 2000 presidential race where he tried to be selected as the GOP presidential candidate. Shortly after he had to have an operation of 5 hours. That is why the left side of his face is scared and large. He gets checked once a month. But there is nothing that can be done if the cancer starts to spread quickly. That means that there is a chance that he will die or be very sick if he is President. This puts his VP choice as the new President. She a smart and clever person, but she is not brilliant and is grossly ignorant of the world --provincial. She would need to be to do the job at all well. There are high school students that know more about the world than she does.

    McCain has put the country at risk. Talk about decisions.

  • August 30, 2008

    3:26 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    HopiMedicineMan writes:

    Broncody,
    I am placing in your heart an old Hopi blessing. This comes from the Oraibi, AZ, tribal elders. Notice too, the last line was plagiarized by Barack Obama. No attribution whatsoever.

    There is a river flowing now very fast. It is so
    great and swift that there are those that will be
    afraid. They will try to hold onto the shore. They
    will feel they are being torn apart and will suffer
    greatly. Know the river has its destination.
    The elders say we must let go of the shore, push off
    into the middle of the river, keep our eyes open
    and our heads above water. And I say, see who is
    in there with you and celebrate. At this time in
    history, we are to take nothing personal. Least
    of all ourselves. For the moment that we do,
    our spiritual growth and journey comes to a halt.
    The time of the lone wolf is over. Gather yourselves!
    Banish the word struggle from your attitude and
    your vocabulary. All that we do now must be done
    in sacred manner and in celebration.
    We are the ones we've been waiting for!

  • August 30, 2008

    6:44 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    roger44 writes:

    holierthanthou, The state patrolman that was the subject in the whole investigation, her ex bro in law, was allegedly drinking on the job in state patrol car, and shot a taser at his 11 year old son. now tell me, would you fire him? get the facts before you post please, then if you have a point, maybe a little credibility will help your cause. She exposed two corrupt politicians, got an ethics bill passed in Alaska, has the state coffers full of money from oil companies. That's sure a helluva lot more than most politicians can say they've done.

  • August 31, 2008

    12:08 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    Patron_Drinker writes:

    Existentalism wrote: "And to prove what an moron she really is, she has been an outspoken advocate that there is no such thing as global warming, maybe she spent too much time in an igloo."

    So apparently the "global warming" didn't do anything to that igloo....

    I wonder if Existentialism knows that igloos are made of ice?

    It also wrote: "Now [McCain] expects the American people to elect him just because he has chosen a female as his running mate."

    So how is that worse than when Mondale did it? or worse than the DNC expecting the American people to vote for Obama because he's black (excuse me, half-black)?

  • August 31, 2008

    7:17 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    ghoax writes:

    the d's lie machine works because the base makes decisions based on how they feel instead of how they think. If you were born after 1958, you can vouch for the fact that the d's have done nothing but obstruct, and strip you of the opportunity your parents had. You got to watch as terrorists took our people while they did nothing, you got to suffer through 9 recessions caused by fiat money and private banks managing our currency brought to you by democrats. You got to deal with inflation, a dollar that is only worth a 1960 nickle, you got to watch as they expanded welfare at the expense of your ability to do something with yourself, and you got to watch as they degraded the value of the family, personal responsibility and sound thinking to the point where the masses are dependent upon the government. Up until the 90's, the d's were the party of war...the d's are the party of oppression, not opportunity. How can you be free when they are the provider? The d's will win, and bring a slurry of taxes and regulation with it as they push their marxist agenda. Just like gas prices..it'll get to a point where the true Americans say no more, and it shall perish. But, until then...hide your money, your belongings, and be sure you spend time re-educating your children when they come home from school about the difference between right and wrong. It is sad that there are so many fooled by the false promises of economic security, promises that cheat you out of your true opportunity to do something with yourself, that you can call your own. The blue ribbon doesn't mean that much if you didn't earn it. Care for your fellow man, sure, enable them to stay in their circumstances isn't helping them.

  • August 31, 2008

    10:18 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    Packerfan writes:

    Hard for me to understand how all that snow and ice doesn't melt with such a hot woman around. She looks sexier now than she did back in '84! Imagine JFK, or Bubba for that matter, with a VP like that. SINtillating!!! McCain still don't get my vote, though.

  • August 31, 2008

    10:41 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    fastnloose writes:

    Why is Palin such a crazy choice?according to you Dembos, McCain never had a chance in the first place.So go drink your latte's and relax. Game over you win,this next two weeks Obama should pull away from McCain big time in the polls,right?

  • August 31, 2008

    11:12 a.m.

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    dilligaf writes:

    Well I for one am very impressed with Mrs Palin. My hat goes off to her for raising a handicap child. And I guess I haven't been paying attention to what qualifies a person to run for VP and very likely president of the United States. Now this BS about her having the same experience of Obama is not even close. There is a very big difference between being in the federal government and being mayor and government. But lets forget about comparing her with Obama. Lets compare her with Biden. Biden was in government when she was still passing notes in high school. Come on people this choice was all about drawing Hillary supporters. Boy what a smart move for this country.

  • August 31, 2008

    1:34 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Seabear writes:

    I have enjoyed reading the banter about Sarah Palin.

    I can only conclude that democrats, and their males in particular, based on the comments from the male gender, in general, believe that the only real woman is one who behaves like she has balls rather than ovaries.

    Sarah Palin IS A REAL WOMAN who has proven that you can be a wife, a mother, a civic leader, and present the finest example of true womanhood.

    As for her so called scandalous firing of the AK Safety manager over her ex state trooper brother in law: She gave this oxymoron a year to do what he should have done when the ex brother in law was caught drinking beer in his cruiser, hunting without a license, using a taser weapon on his step son, and threatening the life of Palin's father for assisting her sister in finding a good lawyer to help gain custody of their children.

    No scandal here for me. Extraordinary patience, perhaps to a fault.

    It is the Obamasiah who has no clue about what is to be a real citizen in the real US where real men and women focus on God first, family second, career thirdly. Strong families founded on God's law will evoke the changes the self-appointed return of JFK has promised but cannot deliver because he is merely a man.

    As for experience, Obamasiah has 3 years and 8 months in the US Senate during which time he has been absent on many key votes. He has spent fully two years of his Senate experience running for President. How does this prepare you to stare down Putin et al?

    Show me a successful mother, and I will show you a human being who take on any challenge and stare it down.