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At the center of an election

Rocky Mountain News

Published August 16, 2008 at 12:05 a.m.

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If there were any lingering doubts about the color of Colorado's political climate - not red or blue but something in between - it is quickly being dispelled by polling on the presidential race. The latest evidence can be found in today's newspaper.

"Colorado is officially a purple state," Lori Weigel of Public Opinion Strategies told us. Her firm conducted a Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 News poll that shows Barack Obama and John McCain locked in a statistical dead heat among registered voters, with McCain enjoying a whisker-thin advantage of 44 percent to 41 percent, still within the margin of error.

For months, most other polls of Colorado voters have reached similar conclusions - although until recently they usually found Obama holding a slight edge. So the fact that Colorado is being touted as a swing state is hardly hype. Don't be surprised if national broadcasters devote the same amount of attention to this state on election night as they have in the past two elections to Florida and Ohio.

The latest poll also confirms a remarkable shift in the public's concerns during the past year. The economy, jobs and pocketbook issues (such as the price of gasoline) don't merely trump other problems in voters' minds - they all but overwhelm them. Moreover, Weigel says Public Opinion Strategies' polling in both Colorado and across the country indicates that Republicans are still paying the price for this deep and broad voter discontent, just as they did in 2006. President George Bush's unfavorable rating among Colorado voters, for example, is 58 percent; meanwhile, Republican Bob Schaffer finds himself trailing Democrat Mark Udall in the U.S. Senate race by 44 percent to 38 percent.

Yet if Republicans are paying for voter anxiety, then McCain's ability to hold his own in the polls is remarkable. Much as Republicans might grouse about their standard-bearer, with conservatives in particular dissenting from his views on several major issues, it just so happens that the GOP has nominated probably the only one of their candidates who has a decent shot at victory in November. His unfavorable ratings in Colorado are actually lower than Obama's, and voters give him emphatically higher ratings for his ability to lead and to "get things done in Washington."

If McCain has a special weakness, it may be his age. He's being clobbered among young registered voters, who appear poised to show up at the polls in big numbers this time. Conversely, Obama is trailing badly among seniors. Obama's biggest problem in Colorado seems to be what it is elsewhere: Uncertainty about his experience, track record and, perhaps, values.

The big unanswered question, however, is what economic policies espoused by the candidates will actually turn voters on - and whether they'll be helpful or destructive. Some voters clearly expect far too much from their presidents, whose actual control over the economic fortunes of this massively complex society is less than they suppose. Perhaps that's why presidential candidates promote meaningless gimmicks such as a gas-tax holiday (McCain) or a $1,000 fuel rebate (Obama) whose potential long-term effect on the nation's economic health is zilch.

Policies important to the economy over the long haul tend to be less exciting and have to do with trade, taxes, immigration and regulation. If voters are serious about an economic renaissance, they'll pay the closest attention to what the candidates say about those matters.

Comments

  • August 16, 2008

    4:30 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    Ofearghail writes:

    Maybe a dream for a socialist like you, but a nightmare for rational people and for the future of the nation.

  • August 16, 2008

    7:07 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    gary writes:

    Yea, yea, everyone says they love Obama in order to be politically correct...
    Just wait until they get into the booth and vote!

    Nobama '08'

    Nuff Said!

  • August 16, 2008

    9:09 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    ItsJustme writes:

    Unfortunately, McCain seems to be poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. If he selects a pro-abort as his VP, you'll see the poll numbers and the actual vote quickly reverse. He will lose by 15 points or more, instead of winning by 5-10.

  • August 17, 2008

    12:10 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    fatheromalley writes:

    Na.. "right to life" isn't that important to most swing voters. That is where the races are always won.. Republicans are much more "diverisfied" than what the media projects.
    Many are just people that still value individual freedom over collective welfare.
    A right wing segment of the Republican Party is not unlike the extreme left wing of the Democratic Party. Intolerance is their M.O. . I find the that the extreme left makes up a greater percentage of Democrats than hard line right to life.
    The big difference will be how people see McCain or Obama in that light, individual freedoms.
    The choice is merely how fast do you want to go toward globalism with a dash of socialism to keep the lower classes from rioting..
    If we would stop bringing up the differences and begin talking about common goals, we can debate methodology with provable cost benefit analysis with every proposal.
    The American people can make up their own minds. But as long as the "education" that major media gives us is concentrating on "race", "fighting big oil" or some other boogie man, we will be treading water instead of swimming forward..

    Try www.fatheromalley.com for the Audacity of offering answers, not just "opinions"..

    Love to all,
    Father O'Malley

  • August 17, 2008

    9:19 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    BlueCarp writes:

    Reject them both.

    http://www.bobbarr2008.com

  • August 17, 2008

    5:34 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    greenleaf writes:

    Ofearghail,

    Nice hit and run. Care to stick around and explain what makes you so "rational" and Froward not?

    It doesn't help the debate to post an insult directed at a poster who at least takes time to talk to us while patting yourself on the back for your common sense as you leave the stage. Is that all you have?

    Bluecarp,

    Your posting was a waste of your time and everyone elses!

    Its a discussion people!

  • August 17, 2008

    5:52 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    greenleaf writes:

    Speaking as an independent who hasn't totally decided how I will vote this November, I have to say I am not surprised that Colorado, which was recently a Republican fortress has swung toward the middle. After 8 years of mismanagement under the Bush Administration, I'm surprised that it isn't much worse for the Republicans. I'm also not surprised that Mc Cain is doing better than expected. In the past, he moved to the middle to team with Joe Lieberman on environmental issues. He also sponsored Campaign Finance reform with Democratic Senator Feingold. He has almost certainly slowed the defection of moderate Republicans from the party and attracted some right leaning independents. He even causes a left-leaning independent such as myself to pause and think. I will probably vote a straight Democratic ticket this year since I am so burned out after two terms of the Great Divider. However, I have to say I do like McCain for his ability to reach across the aisle and take sometimes unpopular stands(unpopular to his own party that is) and for his every man quality ( he reminds me of Truman).

    Obama is slick and sleek and McCain is anything but. Is it possible to have a certain charm by seeming to lack any?

  • August 18, 2008

    2:36 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    HerbToEarth writes:

    However you season Obama, Froward69, we need to put a fork in him. Even if we accept your characterization of him at face value - and I don't - there's nothing there to distinguish him from millions of other Americans. McCain, on the other hand, is a candidate who's been tested and not found wanting.

  • August 18, 2008

    2:43 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    HerbToEarth writes:

    You make a good point, ItsJustme. McCain needs a running mate who can help him attract crossover votes, e.g., Romney.

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