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Dems closer to a rumble in Denver

Party officials say however it plays out, they're ready

By David Montero, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published April 22, 2008 at 11 p.m.

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Democratic National Convention Committee officials kept their standard line about being prepared for any scenario come convention time when Pennsylvania whipped Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton back into the race Tuesday for the party's nomination.

Natalie Wyeth, spokeswoman for the DNCC, quoted the organization's chief executive officer, Leah Daughtry, who said, "not only are we prepared for plans A,B and C, but all the way through X, Y and Z."

They'd better be.

Some analysts believe Clinton's victory over rival Sen. Barack Obama keeps the primary season alive through June 3 and, depending on the way uncommitted superdelegates break, possibly all the way to the Democratic National Convention at the Pepsi Center.

Ken Bickers, chair of the political science department at the University of Colorado, said Clinton's victory enables her to keep making an argument that she's the one who can win in the general election, because she's picked up key states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

That, he said, will give the 311 uncommitted superdelegates - CNN's number - pause before deciding who to back.

"She's carrying voters in big states that Democrats have to win," he said. "Obama says he's a uniter, but he can't unite his own party behind him."

He also noted that the real winner on Tuesday was Sen. John McCain, who is the presumptive Republican nominee.

"The party that has trouble unifying itself has trouble winning elections in the fall," he said, citing the examples of messy conventions in 1976 with Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford and in 1980 when Ted Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter. Both parties lost those general elections.

Kyle Saunders, associate professor of political science at Colorado State University, said party leaders will have to step in before the convention to try and smooth things out to avoid a ruckus at the Pepsi Center Aug. 25-28.

He said it's no accident that DNC Committee Chairman Howard Dean is urging uncommitted superdelegates to make their choice by the final primary.

But Saunders cautioned that won't necessarily resolve a host of problems and that Clinton will have some leverage.

"There's going to have to be some quid pro quo here. Lets be honest, she has earned a large portion of delegates and that's tough to just say to your supporters and everyone, 'I give up,' " he said. "I think a lot of people respect her in that she's continued to fight."

The nominee needs 2,025 delegates to get the nomination, but neither appears to be able to achieve that total by winning pledged delegates.

With supedelegates, the decision is tricky, according to Norman Provizer, political science professor at Metropolitan State College of Denver.

He said Obama's supporters tend to be young and enthusiastic but don't have deep roots in the Democratic Party. They could be turned off if Obama wins the pledged delegate total but superdelegates choose Clinton to be the nominee.

However, he said older voters tend to be more reliable voters, which may factor in the decision-making process.

Comments

  • April 23, 2008

    9:05 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    scottwells writes:

    countdown to winner 303 OBAMA
    434 Hillary

    408 elected 300 supers to go
    go obama

  • April 26, 2008

    7:43 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    Mike_In_Hartsel writes:

    Plan "R" is for riots? Hillrod has the party insiders in her pocket. Obama has the popular vote and the most elected delegates. But, the party wants to win and Hillrod is the stronger candidate so she gets the nod. Then, as threatened by Al Sharpton, there will be "unrest" in the streets (read that to mean cities will burn). I plan to stay away from Denver during the convention enough though I need a good laugh.