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KRIEGER: Avs can't afford to drag feet at home

By Dave Krieger, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published April 19, 2008 at 12:05 a.m.

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The margin of safety the Avs appear to bring to the Pepsi Center tonight is a mirage. And they have seen this particular hallucination before.

These are the building blocks of the delusion: You have the advantage in a best-of- seven playoff series, up three games to two, and you're coming home to play Game 6. Not only do you have a chance to close it out in your own building, you also have a safety net. Lose at home, knotting the series for a third time, and you still have the backstop of a Game 7.

That's the illusion - the alleged safety net and the lack of urgency it can produce. In fact, lose the home game and the air goes out of the balloon.

The Avalanche has done it twice, in the 1999 Western Conference finals against Dallas and the 2002 conference finals against Detroit. Up 3-2, it lost Game 6 at home each time. It went on to lose Game 7 on the road each time.

Those blown opportunities are the difference between being the best team of the late '90s and early '00s and being one of the best. The Avs played in the Stanley Cup Finals twice, in '96 and '01, winning both times. Had they closed out the '99 and '02 conference finals at home, they would have been in two more Finals. They could have, and some say should have, won more Cups than the Red Wings and Devils in that era rather than fewer.

And just in case those conference finals don't drive the point home, there's one more worth remembering. The Devils led the Avs 3-2 in the '01 Finals with a chance to close it out in Game 6 at the Meadowlands. New Jersey lost at home, then lost Game 7 in Colorado.

In other words, there is no safety net tonight when the Avs play host to the Minnesota Wild up 3-2 in their first-round playoff series. Game 6 is their best opportunity to advance. Lose it, and the odds tilt heavily in Minnesota's favor.

Captain Joe Sakic was on hand for the historical precedents.

"We're up 3-2," he said Friday. "You have a chance to close it out. Any time you have a chance, you want to try and do it. You don't really want to go back to Minnesota and their own crowd for Game 7. You have an opportunity; you have to find a way to get it done."

This is perhaps why the Avs are being so polite to the Wild after stealing Game 5 in St. Paul behind a gem from goaltender Jose Theodore.

"They're a great team, so I'm going to have to be ready for the next one," Theodore said afterward. "They're going to come as hard, I'm sure, because they're just a hard-working team. We're going to have to be ready as a team."

In fact, Theodore called the Wild a team with "a lot of skill, lot of character." The former is certainly true. The latter might be, I don't know, but such fulsome praise seemed a tad solicitous following the buffoonery of Game 4, the lasting image of which remains Wild winger Stephane Veilleux making faces at Colorado's Cody McLeod, and McLeod yelling at him in response, as the two sat in the penalty box. They looked like nothing so much as a pair of 8-year-olds in timeout.

The Avs, however, have no interest in stirring anything up at this point. Minnesota threw its best punch in Game 5, outplayed the Avalanche decisively for two periods, and came away with a loss. The Avs close out the visitors tonight or give them new life.

They cannot count on another otherworldly performance from Theodore, but his numbers so far suggest a hot goaltender, perhaps the single most important asset in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Only one Western Conference goalie - Marty Turco of Dallas - had a better postseason goals-against average going into Friday night's games. Good as Turco is, he doesn't scare the Avs, who took four of five from him in the 2004 and 2006 postseasons, averaging better than three goals a game each time.

Meanwhile, some of the game's best goaltenders are struggling. Detroit's Dominik Hasek was benched in favor of Chris Osgood for Game 5 against Nashville on Friday night. Anaheim's Jean-Sebastien Giguere faced an elimination game against Dallas just five games into the postseason, as did New Jersey's incomparable Martin Brodeur against the Rangers.

In short, the usual suspects might be leaving the door open for others to dominate this postseason. In the East, Pittsburgh's Marc-Andre Fleury, Boston's Tim Thomas and Montreal's Carey Price are off to strong starts, although one of the latter two will be eliminating the other soon enough. In the West, it's Turco and Theodore so far. Minnesota's Niklas Backstrom has been OK, but not up to his regular-season standard.

Of course, it's early. Way early. A single game can turn around not only these numbers, but an entire series. Given their history, the Avs should know this.

Win tonight and they will show they have learned from history. Lose, and 2008 is likely to join the roster of postseason opportunities squandered.

Avalanche vs. Wild

* What: Game 6 of Western Conference quarterfinal series, which Avalanche leads 3-2.

* When: 8 tonight.

* Where: Pepsi Center.

* TV/radio: Altitude, Versus; KKFN-FM (104.3).

Comments

  • April 19, 2008

    7:50 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    R8R_H8R writes:

    With all the star-power, all the 'talented' forwards Colorado has, still they were out-shot 40-17. Even though 2 of Minnesota's top 4 defensemen have been out with injury. 17 shots. Lousy. And Defense? Listening to the t.v. broadcast, Peter McNabb describes each Colorado defensemen like he is so talented it is simply astonishing, the second coming of christ. 40 shots allowed. With Minnesota's injuries, Colorado should've easily beaten this team. Sadly, They have been lucky to win. Because of their terrible performance, even if they do get past the Timberwolves, they wont do anything but lose to their next opponent.

  • April 19, 2008

    9:40 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    IBleedOrange writes:

    Yo, r8r_h8r (nice handle, btw), look up the phrase "last change". The home team being able to put the matchup it wants on the ice every stoppage is a very big deal and can account for a fair amount of the shot discrepancy. While they don't have Blake and Bourque anymore, the Avs defense have played very well as a group. Don't forget McNab is paid by the Avs, and his job (as dictated by team management) is to be a homer.

  • April 19, 2008

    10:15 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    jlstaud writes:

    Hey r8r I thought the article was about the NHL playoffs. Last time I checked the Timberwolves were an NBA team and no where near the playoffs. Sometimes your goalie has to steal a game and Jose did just that. For the rest of the series I'd say this has been a pretty evenly matched series so you can't call them lucky.

  • April 19, 2008

    12:08 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    T1anda writes:

    It's the Minnesota WILD R8.

  • April 19, 2008

    3:28 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    GJrodburner writes:

    For the first time this year D.K. you've actually written a piece on the Aves that was of legitimate effort and not fluff. '99 and '02 had to be some of the worst tasting defeats in Avalanche history; and if we do lose tonight, then this series can have the same vinegary aftertaste too. Regardless of how many stinkin' shots on goal that the Aves faced, their goalie did his job, just like Roy did against Detroit in '96. J.T. gets paid to steal games like that, and any others that need to be taken too.

    What this team needs to dispose of is this nonchalance in the face of a must win game. Tonight's game is as big of a must win as the Aves have had in some time. Closing out in Minnesota will not happen. These two teams are too damn close in all areas, and the tipping point for the Aves will be if they lose tonight and have to close back at the X-Cell. It won't happen. So, if you are at the game tonight, scream for effort, call for shots on goal, regardless of angle, and tell the boys nothing fancy, just shoot and rush the freakin' net!

  • April 19, 2008

    6:12 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    princess writes:

    Timberwolves? R8r h8r wrong sport. GO AVS!!! We can win this.