Go to the mobile version of this Web site.

Login | Contact Us | Site Map | Paid archives | Electronic edition | Subscription Questions | Extras

Home › News › Local News

CU study revises scenario of 'nuclear winter' effects

By Bill Scanlon, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published April 7, 2008 at 3:01 p.m.
Updated April 7, 2008 at 11:54 p.m.

Text size  

More Local News

More stories »

A regional nuclear exchange would decimate the protective ozone layer from pole to pole, triggering human health problems and causing environmental havoc for at least a decade, a new study says.

India and Pakistan already have enough weapons in their arsenals to spark the global environmental nightmare if they were to exchange missile fire over, say, the Kashmir Pass border dispute, says the study by University of Colorado scientists.

The study includes variables not considered in previous "nuclear winter" scenarios and finds that global environmental catastrophes will be much worse than previously thought.

The study, using computer models, found that a nuclear war between two countries involving 50 Hiroshima-size nuclear devices on each side would cause massive fires in cities and loft 5 million metric tons of soot 50 miles into the stratosphere.

The soot would absorb enough solar radiation to heat surrounding gases, said lead author Michael Mills of CU's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics. That would set in motion a series of chemical reactions that would break down the stratospheric ozone layer protecting Earth from ultraviolet radiation.

"We would see a dramatic drop in ozone levels that would persist for many years," said Mills.

"At mid-latitudes the ozone decrease would be up to 40 percent, which could have huge effects on human health and on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems."

A paper on the subject, "Massive Global Ozone Loss Predicted Following A Regional Nuclear Conflict," written by scientists from CU, UCLA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, appears this week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Twenty years ago, a "nuclear winter" scenario predicted that a global nuclear exchange involving thousands of megatons of explosions would deplete only 17 percent of the Northern Hemisphere's stratospheric ozone, which would recover by half in just three years.

The new scenario predicts depletion of up to 40 percent of the ozone at mid-latitudes and 70 percent at higher latitudes, in a far smaller nuclear exchange.

Mills said by using models developed at NCAR, the scientists calculated the smoke from the urban fires would rise to about 20,000 feet where it would be above the clouds and further heated by the sun.

"That would cause the plume to rise to the top of the stratosphere, at about 260,000 feet," Mills said.

At the top of the ozone layer, the plume could linger for a decade, heating the stratosphere and keeping the ozone from repairing itself, he said.

"The big surprise is that this study demonstrates that a small-scale, regional nuclear conflict is capable of triggering ozone losses even larger than losses that were predicted following a full-scale nuclear war," said CU co-author Brian Toon.

Mills and Toon said they hope the study will shake world leaders.

"When leaders realize that conflicts that don't even involve our country could have devastating effects on our country, our economy and our ecosystem, it will add urgency to limiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons," Mills said.

scanlon@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-2897

Comments

  • April 7, 2008

    3:31 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    davies writes:

    Maybe they already are.

  • April 7, 2008

    3:43 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Firedewd writes:

    Seems to have worked so far!

  • April 7, 2008

    4:03 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    nicktaste writes:

    "I guess we really don't need to be concerned if those with the power of prayer can for once do something useful."

    - a religous, delusional, and asinine statement (in my opinion of coursr)

    -----------------------------------------------------------------

    The negative consequences of nuclear war ending human civilization as we know it is already a possibility in the not too distant future

    already the right wing bush administration is pushing to produce a new, next generation nuclear arsenal

    ------------------------------------------------------------------

    Some people are concerned about this, luckily, thanks to the power of the internet, TAKING ACTION is easy

    go to:
    http://act.credomobile.com/campaign/s...

    and sign a petiton urging

    Mr. Theodore Wyka, U.S. DOE
    cc: Representative Diana DeGette
    cc: Senator Ken Salazar
    cc: Senator Wayne Allard

    to say NO to a New Generation of Nuclear Weapons
    ----------------------------------------------------------------

    what would jebus do?

  • April 7, 2008

    4:12 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Blaster writes:

    On the face of it, this sounds like BS to me. Volcanic eruptions dwarf the volumes of debris and gases mentioned here. Exaggerating this stuff doesn't help anyones cause. Can't they just say "Nuclear Weapons are bad and should be gotten rid of," and be done with it?

  • April 7, 2008

    4:37 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    davies writes:

    Hey nicktaste: I think 'freethought' was being ironic.

    A petition, whoa, now that I'm sure that will be effective. Phew; we're safe!

  • April 7, 2008

    5:04 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    HolierThanThou writes:

    Volcanoes don't belch out copious quantities of radioactive debris, skippy.

  • April 7, 2008

    6:10 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    The_Punnisher writes:

    We need to test this theory out. IRAN & Saudi Arabia ( MECCA & The Rock ) would be a good place for Ground Zero.

  • April 7, 2008

    7:06 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    kathyM writes:

    Speak softly and carry a big nuke--we didn't win the Cold War by demilitarizing.

  • April 7, 2008

    7:16 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    mtnsrfer writes:

    I.M.I. or Isreali military industies, is a manufacturer of many fine weapons. It has for it's insignia a olive branch, crossed over a cog wheel, in front of a sword. Peace through superior firepower.

    Add Pakistan, Yemin, and Chechnya to your list ;)

  • April 8, 2008

    6:30 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    Quagmate writes:

    Wait a minute, didn't the US and USSR detonate several megatone H-Bombs within one year in the fifties? Why didn't that cause a global disaster?

    In addition, hasn't the nuetron bomb replaced the old arsenal? As I undertand it most submarines and aircraft only carry neutron devices.

    Sounds like somebody needs more funding for his/her project.