Is 400 carries the breaking point?

By Michael Salfino
, Special to the Rocky

Published November 28, 2007 at 12:52 p.m.

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Lots of player prognosticators are saying "I told you so" this year about the disappointing season of Larry Johnson, which has apparently (but not officially) ended in injury.

The math for these people is simple: 400-plus carries equals disaster the next year. Johnson in 2006 had 416 carries. So what more proof do we need?

A lot more. The problem with 400 carries is that it's an arbitrary number. Why is that significantly worse than 395 or 380 or 360? What if a back has 330 carries and 80 catches? Do catches not count (you get tackled on them pretty hard sometimes, too).

Nostradamuses using this number to predict doom say the punishment for such profligate usage will be either injury or performance decline.

Larry Johnson was 27 and in his physical prime when Packers linebacker A.J. Hawk rolled over his foot while pulling him down after a reception (remember, we're not even supposed to count those). Are we to assume that if L.J. had 350 carries, he would have walked back to the huddle? Johnson's injury is more reasonably attributed to the laws of physics and the human anatomy.

Remember that there aren't 50 guys in the history of the NFL who have 1,500 carries. Playing running back is like getting into 20 or 30 car crashes in a day, dangerous even in a helmet and pads.

The argument seems to hold up better when you look at the poor year that Johnson was having. In 2006 he averaged 4.3 yards per carry. In 2007, at the time of his injury, his per-carry average dipped to 3.5, which is awful. But Johnson averaged 3.5 yards per carry in October 2006, too. He's always been a second-half-of-the-year player (4.5 per carry in '06, 5.2 in '05).

Even if we accept that his performance in 2007 would have remained appreciably worse, that can be simply due to regression to the mean. Players who pile up lots of carries generally are having very good years, and you have to fight gravity fiercely to be very good, doubly so two years in a row.

There are not going to be any 400-carry backs this year. In 2006 seven backs averaged more than 20 carries per game. Because of injury, ineffectiveness and running back committees now rampant in the NFL, just two backs average 20-plus carries in '07 Â? Willie Parker (the league leader with 257 through 11 games) and Edgerrin James (221).

Many backs have emerged from relative obscurity of late to be viable options. Let's look at them as well as some big-name backs who have struggled.

Buy

Ryan Grant, Packers: Averaging more than 20 carries the past five weeks for the high-scoring Packers with 18 catches. Grant has some explosion and is a decisive runner who should be able to handle goal-line duty at 220 pounds.

Broncos running backs: Explosive fire-plug Andre Hall has a high-ankle sprain after his great, all-purpose day in Chicago. Undrafted rookie Selvin Young and veteran Travis Henry are battling sore knees, and a suspension is still possible for Henry, who insists he'll start Week 13 if the commissioner doesn't step in first.

Hold

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers: When they give you the ball for 10,000 career yards, your team should be looking for a replacement. Tomlinson's per-carry average is down a full yard and the end, while not at hand, is definitely in sight.

Reggie Bush, Saints: Can't run between the tackles (3.6 yards per carry); can't get the ball in space as a receiver (5.8 yards per catch). He's not getting any better.

Kolby Smith, Chiefs: The Priest Holmes sideshow is over. Smith has size and speed, but Brodie Croyle is a disaster at QB and the Raiders front seven is softer than John Madden's midsection.

Earnest Graham, Bucs: If Jeff Garcia (back) is active, Graham will be productive. All bets are off with Bruce Gradkowski under center.

Sell

Rudi Johnson, Bengals: His "big" Week 11 still was well under 4.0 per carry. Only the all-time talents have extended NFL careers and Johnson was always, at best, merely workmanlike.

Frank Gore, Niners: Journeyman Trent Dilfer is a big upgrade over Abominable Alex Smith. But the Niners keep threatening to put Smith (elbow) back in there. "OK, stop, we'll give you whatever you want!"

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