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Is 'baddest dude' enough?

Rockies left fielder learns Tuesday if he's 2007 MVP

By Jack Etkin, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published November 19, 2007 at 12:45 a.m.

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Holliday

Holliday

Jimmy Rollins

Jimmy Rollins

Prince Fielder

Prince Fielder

The Rockies' Matt Holliday is congratulated after his solo home run against Philadelphia in Game 2 of the National League Divisional Series.

Photo by Joe Mahoney © The Rocky

The Rockies' Matt Holliday is congratulated after his solo home run against Philadelphia in Game 2 of the National League Divisional Series.

A fan gives Holliday his vote.

Photo by Evan Semon © The Rocky

A fan gives Holliday his vote.

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The criterion is succinct, decisive and leads to a conclusion about the Most Valuable Player without the need to weigh any statistics. Call it the Don Baylor Method, a more intuitive way to determine the MVP.

Baylor was aware of all the vital numbers, but rather than dwell on them, Rockies manager Clint Hurdle remembers Baylor would zero in on the MVP from another direction.

The National League MVP will be announced Tuesday. Either Rockies left fielder Matt Holliday or Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins will win the award, and it will be Holliday if one uses the qualitative analysis put forth by Baylor.

"Back when Don was managing the club," said Hurdle, who was Baylor's hitting coach in 1997-1998, "and we had conversations, the MVP was the baddest dude in the league. For me, Holliday was the baddest dude in the league."

They are vastly different players, Rollins a switch-hitting leadoff man with atypical power and disruptive speed and Holliday a vaunted slugger who bats third and hits for an exceptionally high average.

Both Holliday and Rollins helped their teams reach the postseason. Both had exceptional Septembers while their clubs sprinted home and made up substantial ground. Rollins played the more demanding position and was awarded a Gold Glove for his defense, possible tipping points when 32 members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, two from each league city, filled out the 10 spaces on their MVP ballots before the start of the postseason.

"I've thought about it some with the awards coming out (last week)," Holliday said from Hawaii, where he is vacationing. "I'm sure it's going to be close, whichever way it goes. It would be exciting and really neat if I had a chance to win that award, and (it would be) something I could share with my teammates and family. If it doesn't go my way, it's not something that's going to send me into a state of depression or anything."

Rollins' MVP credentials include a .296 average, 30 homers and 94 RBI. He led the league in runs scored (139), triples (20) and multiple-hit games (63). Rollins was second in extra-base hits (88) and fifth in stolen bases (41) while getting caught stealing just six times.

Holliday led the league in batting (.340), RBI (137), hits (216), doubles (50), total bases (386) and extra-base hits (92). He was third in slugging percentage (.607), fourth in homers (36) and seventh in on-base percentage (.405).

"Personally, I've seen way too much of Matt Holliday this year," Arizona manager Bob Melvin said, recalling 18 games in the regular season, four in the postseason and several more in spring training, where both the Rockies and Diamondbacks train in Tucson. "I've seen quite a bit of him and have seen enough to know that (he's) not a guy you want up there with anybody on base or the game on the line."

When asked whether he liked Holliday's chances of being named MVP, Melvin said, "I'm not promoting him. I'm just saying he's the one guy I saw a ton of. And he deserves to be mentioned at the forefront of this award, no question."

Just entering prime time

Win or lose, Holliday has raised his stature in the game and become more of a Rockies crown jewel. He turns 28 in January, meaning - and here's a scary thought for opposing pitchers - Holliday is about to enter the prime of his career, using the window between 28 and 32 years old as that peak period.

He made $4.4 million this year and his projected salary for 2008 is $8.7 million via the arbitration process. The Rockies can go that route for two more seasons with Holliday before he becomes eligible for free agency after the 2009 season.

The Rockies reportedly are considering an offer of a four-year contract to Holliday that would be worth about $60 million. Such a deal would buy Holliday out of his first two years of free agency.

When told what the Rockies were contemplating, Holliday said, "This is all news to me," but he added that Scott Boras, his agent, and general manager Dan O'Dowd are supposed to soon discuss "some things that were important" before any offer is made and negotiations begin.

"I'm not sure how it's all going to unfold, but obviously I'm honored by the thought of them wanting to sign me to a multiyear deal," Holliday said. "And four years is a little short for me, for what my personal preference would be. If I was going to sign a (multiyear) contract now, I'd want it to be longer."

Holliday, his wife, Leslee, and their two young sons live year-round in Denver and are very happy in Colorado. Those close to Holliday say having played on a Rockies team that just won a pennant, what matters most to him is being part of a team with a chance to win.

The Rockies made a 14-game improvement this year, a leap forward that is not expected to be some lightning-in-a-bottle occurrence.

"We think over the next four or five years, we've got a chance to have a pretty good team," O'Dowd said.

Said Holliday: "I'm excited about the way our team is playing and the young players that we have and some of the prospects we have coming up and the young pitchers. So from the standpoint of looking at it as a future, I think we have a good nucleus of young players. I don't think it gets a whole lot better than our situation."

Room for improvement

Holliday has improved offensively in each of his four seasons and has worked hard defensively to raise his skills in left field. But he sees room for growth, particularly when it comes to a particular area of pitch selection.

"Most big guys, if you can pitch at the hands and up and in, if we can't lay off of it, it's a very difficult pitch for big guys because we like to get our arms extended," he said. "And it's a very difficult pitch to, one, lay off and, two, to hit when you swing at it.

"It's no secret that most bigger guys have a hole there and most power hitters like to get their arms extended. For me, I think it's laying off of it, recognizing the high pitch and being able to lay off it."

Holliday swung at 42.9 percent of the first pitches thrown to him. That was the second highest rate in the league, trailing only Atlanta right fielder Jeff Francoeur (44.1 percent).

Following that fire-early-fire-often mode, Holliday saw an average of 3.65 pitches per plate appearance and ranked 55th in the league among hitters with a minimum of 502 plate appearances. By contrast, teammate Todd Helton saw 4.34 pitches per plate appearance, the highest average for any hitter in the league.

"Maybe if I take that high fastball, maybe I get into a better count and get my pitch to hit and there's some more to be had there," Holliday said. "But I don't want to curb my aggressiveness, because that is part of who I am, and part of my success is that I can handle some pitches that maybe aren't great hitters' pitches but something I can still drive and hit hard.

"I never want to be passive, but at the same time, if I can be a tad bit more selective and get balls down in the zone where I like them, there might be more to be had there. Those are things that I think about and some of the areas of improvement that I think are possible for me."

In the grand scheme of things, those are rather small areas, ones most players would be happy to dwell on.

NL Most Valuable Player race

Matt Holliday is bidding to join Larry Walker in 1997 as the only Rockies player to win the the National League's MVP Award. Jimmy Rollins is trying to give the Phillies consecutive MVPs, first baseman Ryan Howard having won the award last year.

Though Holliday and Rollins are the chief MVP contenders, Milwaukee first baseman Prince Fielder, 23, isn't far behind. He's expected to finish third after a robust second full season in the majors.

* Matt HollidayHe hit safely in 11 of his final 12 games, going 23-for-52 (.442) with five homers and 17 RBI, and he drove in 27 runs in his final 20 games. He became the third player since Carl Yastrzemski won the American League Triple crown in 1967 to lead either league in both batting average and RBI. The others were Joe Torre with St. Louis in 1971 and Todd Helton with the Rockies in 2000.

Holliday produced the sixth season in baseball history that included at least a .335 average, 35 homers, 130 RBI, 200 hits and 50 doubles. The others were Lou Gehrig with the 1927 Yankees, Chuck Klein with the Phillies in 1930 and 1932, Frank Robinson in 1962 with Cincinnati and Todd Helton in 2000.

In September/October, when the Rockies went 22-8 and won 14 of their final 15 games, Holliday hit .365 with 12 homers and 32 RBI in 27 games with a .447 on-base percentage and .788 slugging percentage.

* Jimmy Rollins

He set a record for an NL shortstop with 88 extra-base hits, which is second all time to Alex Rodriguez's 91 in 1996, and he became the first player in major league history to have at least 200 hits, 15 triples, 25 homers and 25 stolen bases in one season. He's the third shortstop with at least 30 homers and 30 stolen bases in one season, joining Barry Larkin (3 3/36) in 1996 and Rodriguez (4 2/46) in 1998.

Rollins became the fourth player in major league history to have 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 homers and 20 steals in one season. The others are Wildfire Schulte with the 1911 Cubs, Willie Mays with the 1957 Giants and Curtis Granderson this year with the Tigers.

Rollins finished strong for the Phillies, who won 13 of their final 17 games to pass the fading Mets and win the NL East. In September, Rollins hit .298 with six homers and 18 RBI and stole 14 bases without being caught.

* Prince Fielder

He led the league with 50 homers and was second in slugging percentage (.618) and third in RBI (119). He hit .333 and had a career-high 17-game hitting streak in September along with 11 homers and 22 RBI. But his MVP chances suffered when the Brewers, their 83-victory revival and first winning season since 1992 notwithstanding, faded after a fast start and lost seven of their final 12 games to finish second in the NL Central.

Fielder, at 23 years, 137 days, was the youngest player in major league history to hit 50 homers. Mays, who hit 51 homers for the New York Giants in 1955, was 24 years, 137 days when he hit No. 50. Fielder set both a Brewers franchise and Milwaukee single-season home run record, passing Gorman Thomas (1979) and Richie Sexson (2000), who hit 45 homers for the Brewers, and Eddie Mathews, who hit 47 homers for the Milwaukee Braves in 1958.

Split screens

Home-road splits are a constant focal point when it come to Rockies players, even though Coors Field, since the 2002 introduction of the humidor, remains a good place to hit but is no longer a launching pad. Matt Holliday by no means languished on the road but he flourished at home.

Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park has less room than Coors Field but is a cozy hitter's paradise. Rollins' output, however, is not skewed toward his home park, a factor that might help him in the MVP voting.

On-base Slug Holliday HR RBI Avg. pct. pct.

Home 25 82 .376 .435 .722

Road 11 55 .301 .374 .485

On-base Slug Rollins HR RBI Avg. pct. pct.

Home 18 47 .300 .336 .556

Road 12 47 .293 .352 .507

Comments

  • November 20, 2007

    7:27 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    BobEv writes:

    This should be interesting and very close. First let me note that i am Phillies season ticket holder and a big fan. That being said, both our teams had an incredible run this year, led by the two MVP candidates. Holliday & Rollins both had incredible years and there are so many things that go into this vote, I am very torn.

    I think there is one thing that is over looked when it comes to these type of selections and it can be illustrated in the AL MVP vote. The unbalanced schedule does not allow all fans the opportunity to see the other players in the league perform on an even basis. Therefore, I am much more familiar with Rollins & the other players in the NL East, which makes it hard to have the same appreciation for Holliday; I would imagine many voters are in the same position, as evidence by Ordonez getting two AL MVP votes from the guys in Detroit. A Rod had much better numbers, but those guys saw what Ordonez meant to the Tigers day in & day out.

    Any way, I am rooting for Rollins of course, but will have no problem if Holliday wins... if there ever was a year for a tie, this may be it.