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GOP aims for long shot at retaking state

'A lot of things can happen in a year,' says Senate minority leader

By Lynn Bartels, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published December 31, 2007 at 12:30 a.m.

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Sen. Jack Taylor

Sen. Jack Taylor

Sen. Betty Boyd

Sen. Betty Boyd

Sen. Shawn Mitchell

Sen. Shawn Mitchell

Sen. Dan Gibbs

Sen. Dan Gibbs

Sen. Stephanie Takis

Sen. Stephanie Takis

Sen. Sue Windels

Sen. Sue Windels

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Republican leaders acknowledge it would take a miracle for the GOP to regain the majority in the legislature next year.

But that's not stopping them from trying.

"Certainly it would be difficult, but a lot of things can happen in a year," said Senate Minority Leader Andy McElhany of Colorado Springs.

When lawmakers reconvene next month, Democrats will enjoy a 20-15 edge in the Senate and a 40-25 majority in the House.

Given those numbers, the House seems out of reach, at least for the time being, and it will be no cakewalk in the Senate even though Republicans would need only three seats to take back the majority.

Republicans might have to settle for picking up enough seats to make it possible for them to regain power after the 2010 election.

"This sort of thing usually doesn't happen overnight. It takes some rebuilding," said political analyst Katy Aktkinson, a Republican.

And some courtship of unaffiliated voters, the second largest voting block in Colorado.

Statewide, Republicans outnumber Democrats in voter registration, but unaffiliated voters call the shots in many races, and their numbers are growing. In the last two election cycles, many unaffiliated voters sided with Democrats.

Democrats first won power in a stunner in 2004, aided by a budget crisis Republicans had been unable to solve, effective candidate recruitment and infusions of cash from four wealthy party members. It marked the first time since 1962 that Democrats controlled the legislature.

They increased their majority after the 2006 election, in addition to winning the governor's seat.

Senate President-elect Peter Groff, D-Denver, is optimistic Democrats will stay in power after 2008. He thinks Democrats will keep all or most of their Senate seats and possibly pick up a seat now held by Republicans.

"I think we will do well," he said. "We're going to run on our record of moving this state forward and our plans to continue to invest in the future."

But GOP state party chairman Dick Wadhams believes Republicans have several things going for them in 2008, including the possibility that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for president and the fallout over Gov. Bill Ritter's executive order giving unions more of a say in state government.

"It would take a lot of things falling into place," Wadhams said of regaining the majority. "But I know one thing: There are competitive seats that we have a shot of winning if we find the right candidate."

All 65 House seats and 19 of the 35 Senate seats are up for election next year.

Most of those seats are in districts safe for either one party or the other or where the incumbent enjoys a distinct advantage. In some districts - such as in Boulder, Douglas and El Paso counties - the party registration is so lopsided the real race is the primary.

So the parties have to look elsewhere for trophies, particularly three key Democratic Senate seats that are in districts where either party has a shot.

Those seats are held by Sue Windels, of Arvada, Stephanie Takis, of Aurora, and Betty Boyd, of Lakewood. Windels and Takis are term limited, while Boyd is running for re-election.

Republicans are coy when asked about potential candidates, saying no one has publicly announced yet. But they admit to borrowing a page from the Democratic playbook by trying to recruit candidates with strong roots in their communities.

Both parties say the biggest battle will be over Windels' seat. It had been held by a Republican before her upset victory in 2000.

"That's a very tough seat, but Sue has done a wonderful job of representing it," Groff said.

No matter what happens in 2008, most Republicans think nothing could be as bad as the last election, when a national tidal wave against their party ensured Democratic victories at every level of government.

In Colorado legislative races, Democrats held onto every single seat, kicked out five incumbents and picked up two open seats.

"This time around," Wadhams said, "I believe the issues will be on our side."

Naturally, Pat Waak, chairwoman of the Colorado Democratic Party, believes otherwise.

"The reason we've won and the reason we will continue to win is we're focusing on the issues Coloradans care about: energy independence, affordable health care, quality education and good economic opportunities."

bartels@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-5327

The state Senate

Democrats have a 20-15 majority in the Senate. In next year's election, when 19 of the 35 seats are up, Democrats will try to hold on to what they have while Republicans want to boost their numbers.

Here's a look at some seats deemed crucial to determining which party will be in the majority after 2008 as well as information on voting patterns in those districts based on the 2004 presidential election and last year's close matchup in the secretary of state's race:

* DISTRICT 8

Sen. Jack Taylor, R-Steamboat Springs, is term limited.

Of note: Democrats fought hard to win the district in 2000, the last time it was an open seat, but lost a close one.

Rep. Al White, of Winter Park, is running for the GOP nomination. Ken Brenner, former Steamboat Springs City Council president, will reportedly seek the Democratic nomination. White is expected to escape attacks from independent Democratic advocacy groups after siding with them on various issues.

Voting history: In District 8 in 2004, Republican George W. Bush picked up 52 percent of the vote to Democrat John Kerry's 47 percent. President Bush carried Colorado for re-election.

In the secretary of state's race last year, Democrat Ken Gordon got 55 percent of the vote in District 8 to Republican Mike Coffman's 45 percent. Coffman won election by 2 percent.

Voter registration

Unaffiliated 31,517

Republican 29,206

Democrat 19,503

* DISTRICT 16

Rep. Dan Gibbs, D-Silverthorne, was appointed in November to Sen. Joan Fitz-Gerald's seat after she resigned to run full time for Congress. Gibbs must run for re-election next year.

Of note: In 2006, Gibbs won his first election to the House against former state Sen. Ken Chlouber, of Leadville. Gibbs took 67 percent of the vote.

Voting history: Kerry beat Bush 55 to 44 percent in District 16; Gordon beat Coffman by 9 percent.

Voter registration

Unaffiliated 36,655

Republican 32,935

Democrat 27,945

* DISTRICT 19

Sen. Sue Windels, D-Arvada, is term limited.

Of note: Windels in 2000 beat the Republican incumbent in an upset. The GOP believes they have the best shot of winning this seat. Two Dems known in education, Evie Hudak, of Westminster, and John Giardino, of Arvada, are running.

Voting history: Bush beat Kerry 53 to 46 percent in District 19; Coffman beat Gordon by 4 percent.

Voter registration

Republican 27,222

Unaffiliated 26,197

Democrat 22,821 * DISTRICT 21

Sen. Betty Boyd, D-Lakewood, is running for re-election.

Of note: Boyd was a House member in March 2006 when she was appointed to fill a Senate vacancy. She was elected that November to serve the remainder of the term, which expires in 2008.

Voting history: Kerry beat Bush 49 to 48 percent in District 21; Gordon beat Coffman by 3 percent.

Voter registration

Unaffiliated 24,494

Democrat 23,383

Republican 23,078

* DISTRICT 23

Sen. Shawn Mitchell, R-Broomfield, is running for re-election.

Of note: Democrats believe this race is their best chance of taking out an incumbent, and Mitchell agrees "there's a big target on my back." Democrat Joe Whitcomb, a former Army Ranger from Westminster, is challenging Mitchell.

Voting history: Bush beat Kerry 56 to 43 percent in District 23; Coffman beat Gordon by 11 percent.

Voter registration

Unaffiliated 37,902

Republican 36,312

Democrat 26,839

DISTRICT 25

Sen. Stephanie Takis, D-Aurora, is term limited.

Of note: So far, Rep. Mary Hodge, D-Brighton, who is term limited in the House, is running.

Voting history: Kerry beat Bush 52 to 47 percent in District 25; Gordon beat Coffman by 2 percent.

Voter registration

Unaffiliated 26,132

Democrat 23,108

Republican 19,887

Comments

  • December 31, 2007

    11:07 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    kevin3 writes:

    Overall Owens was a good governer with the peoples best interest at hand. Nationally people are sick of Bush and locally us Democrats were sickened by Musgrave. Hopefully Ritter will be at least as good of a gov. as Owens was.