Peterson likely to bear the load

By Michael Salfino , Special to the Rocky

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

There's only one week left to forecast. We'll focus exclusively on Week 17 before filing our final Stock Watch next week on who we expect will be the sleeper and busts of 2008.

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Adrian Peterson, RB, Bears: He had 30 carries last week, and bad weather is likely at this time of year in Chicago. The Saints come to town on life support (needing a win and losses by the Vikings and Redskins) and with a rotten pass defense. Their run defense has been stout, but intensity is a key there and how much will the Saints have, given their disappointing Week 16? The Bears are past mourning 2007 and likely more eager to close out the year on an up note before the home crowd.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: The Cowboys have nothing to play for after locking up the NFC's No. 1 seed. The Redskins are a home win away from an emotionally satisfying turnaround and playoff berth on the heals of the death of Sean Taylor. Portis was very close to Taylor and should be expected to continue carrying Washington as he has done the past two weeks.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: The returns have been mixed for Jackson owners during his injury-plagued 2007. St. Louis travels to Arizona to face a Cardinals defense that's motivated to finish .500. But Jackson is a supreme talent who has played very well the past two weeks. Perhaps this week the Rams won't forget about him as they did in the second half of last week's loss to Pittsburgh.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals: His season was supposed to be done after dislocating his toe. But Boldin has provided more evidence that he's not merely a supreme talent but a tough and resourceful one, too. Larry Fitzgerald is actually more hobbled, so Kurt Warner is leaning more on Boldin in the passing game. The results last week were spectacular and could be again in what should be a high-scoring affair at home versus the Rams.

Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Tough call here. White was essentially shut out in Week 15 and then exploded last week. But Bobby Petrino is gone, and perhaps so is the pall he seemed to cast over the entire team. The players appeared very motivated last week before falling short against the Cardinals. Given the dearth of options with so many teams viewing Week 17 as an exhibition (see below), I'd have him active in all deep formats.

Chris Cooley, TE, Redskins: You never want to be heavily invested in the Redskins passing game, but this is a great week for the reasons noted above. The Cowboys are looking ahead to January and won't risk any injuries. Cooley has had only three catches the past two weeks. But the conditions were terrible in New York, and Washington coasted in Week 16. Expect a TD and a half-dozen grabs here as the Skins roll.

Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals: There aren't better matchups than the Dolphins in the friendly conditions at Miami. Palmer and his receivers have been a tremendous disappointment of late. Bet they end on a high note.

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Patriots passing game: The quest for perfection continues. Plus, Tom Brady needs two TD passes to set the NFL record for most scoring strikes ever. That's the floor in Week 17 against the Giants, who will be treating the game as a bye. If the conditions are decent (and wind has rarely been a factor in Giants Stadium in recent years), pencil Brady in for 300 yards and at least three TDs (one for good measure).

Browns offense: The Browns have nothing to play for but can make the playoffs if the Titans lose at the Colts. That's not likely given that the Colts have said their starters will rest at least three quarters. But Cleveland must sense its doom and is a good bet to lay it all out in what very likely will be their last game of a successful season. The Niners will play hard, too, and have a decent defense and no offense to threaten the Browns and force a high percentage of passing plays even if the weather in Cleveland cooperates.

Vince Young, QB, Titans: His decision making and mechanics are terrible. But he's a winner, we're told. This year, though, he's merely along for the Tennessee ride.

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Playoff teams with nothing to play for: The list includes the Colts (who at least, surprisingly, went hard in Week 16), Jaguars, Giants, Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks and Buccaneers. Additionally, the Steelers and Chargers are only playing for the No. 3 seed and avoiding a game against the Jaguars and a trip to New England in the divisional round. Teams rarely play hard for seeding in Week 17, but at least the regulars receive regular playing time.

All Ravens: Every year there's one losing team that has totally packed it in. This year, it's Baltimore.

Saints offense: Injuries have taken their toll, and the conditions in the Windy City likely will challenge the passing game. Last week was their Waterloo. How enthused can they be about a trip to the frosty Midwest during a holiday week?