KRIEGER:Broncos have lose-win situation
By Dave Krieger, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)
Published December 20, 2007 at 12:45 a.m.
Back in April, at the NFL draft, Mike Shanahan gave up a third-round choice and a sixth-round choice to move up four spots in the first round, from 21st to 17th, so he could take defensive end Jarvis Moss.
The year before, he gave up another third-round choice to move up four spots, from 15th to 11th, so he could take quarterback Jay Cutler.
In other words, Shanahan values the ability to move up in the first round a great deal. You don't just throw away third-round picks. At least, you shouldn't.
Over the final two weeks of this season, the Broncos can move up in next year's first round - and, as a special bonus, all the other rounds, too - simply by losing games that don't matter. Having been eliminated from the playoffs, winning these games offers no tangible reward and precious little intangible consolation for a season gone wrong.
Of course, even if the Broncos want to lose these games, they cannot admit it. Their opponents, the Chargers and Vikings, are still pursuing rewards both immediate and tangible, as are other teams with which they are competing.
But there is an acceptable way to handle it. The Broncos have a right to allocate playing time in their own best interest, which may very well include taking a look at backups to see what they can do.
Taylor Jacobs and Glenn Martinez at wide receiver, for example. P.J. Alexander, Isaac Snell and Ryan Harris on the offensive line. Jordan Beck and Louis Green at linebacker. You see where I'm going with this.
When I asked Shanahan on Wednesday what he was looking to get out of these final games, he took it as an opportunity to talk about how good the Chargers are, which was so far from the question that I thought for a moment I'd stumbled into a presidential debate by mistake. But he finished with this:
"So it's a good challenge for us to at least finish the season on a positive note with some players that haven't played a lot, see what they can do."
This is just what I had in mind. So I asked if that meant he was planning to give backups more playing time in the last two weeks.
"No, we're not, but we've got a number of guys that are young that are playing that get a chance to have some good experience before it's over," he said. "But we'll play our starters just like we have been."
This is not what I had in mind. Everybody talks about finishing strong and ending on a good note, but these are just cliches. A lot of these players won't even be here next year. The only significant difference between finishing 8-8 and finishing 6-10 lies in the draft position that goes with it.
Let's take Ohio State middle linebacker James Laurinaitis as an example. Not to try to recapture the glory of Randy Gradishar, another pretty good Buckeyes 'backer, but hey, you could do worse.
As a junior, Laurinaitis could return to school if he doesn't like what he hears from the NFL College Advisory Committee. But because the committee will undoubtedly tell him he's a first-round pick, I'm assuming Laurinaitis will be available on draft day.
A year ago, the 49ers finished 7-9. They got the 11th pick in the draft. They used it to take the best inside linebacker on the board, Mississippi's Patrick Willis. As a rookie, Willis leads the NFL in tackles and is a Pro Bowl reserve.
Minnesota, Miami and Houston, which finished 6-10 a year ago, ended up with the seventh, ninth and 10th picks. If finishing 6-10 produces a similar result this year, the Broncos should be right in Laurinaitis' neighborhood.
By contrast, teams that finished 8-8 a year ago picked anywhere from 13th to 21st, which is all probably too late for Laurinaitis this year.
I use Laurinaitis as an example because it's my opinion that a stud middle linebacker would be the single biggest upgrade the Broncos could make, not merely because of his play but because he would free up D.J. Williams to play the weak side, potentially giving the Broncos two playmakers for the price of one.
But it doesn't really matter what you think the Broncos need. Clearly, the higher their draft position, the better their chance to grab a difference maker.
Having been eliminated from the playoffs, winning their final two games gets them nothing but a little satisfaction. Losing them accomplishes something they traded valuable draft picks to accomplish each of the past two years.
Let's be honest: Even playing all their starters, the Broncos have a pretty good chance of losing to the Chargers and Vikings, both of whom have better records.
The Broncos are playing for pride. I get that. But if moving up four places in the draft is worth a third-round pick, how much pride is moving up 10 places worth?
kriegerd@RockyMountainNews.com
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December 20, 2007
6:19 a.m.
Suggest removal
boydy2669 writes:
Play the young guys, lets see what they have got, and lets start building this team through the draft like all the other Siper Bowl franchises have....the pats, the colts.
Sundquist needs to get off his "super bowl thru free agency" crap as it is not working....going thru the darft will enable this team to build a great nucleus for years to come....lets just hope they evaluate talent like they have in the last 2 years but not the garbage they came up with before that!
December 20, 2007
10:15 a.m.
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GJrodburner writes:
Deadnuts.
Your have hit the unspoken truth in the N.F.L.: you lose to win. In order to win in the N.F.L. you don't do it with someone else's cast off in FA, you do it through the draft. We don't have the vision nor grading talent matrix knowledge in our GM and VP of football operations to know how to evaluate cast off talent like New England. O.K., let's do it the old school way and do it through the draft. I know what the cliched response is to playing out the string for this season; Mike "the dope" will say what he did, and he did in the article. So what. Nothing new. Same stink, just a different day. There is a silver lining to this season, and this is what should be done to salve the wounds of this oganization and for the Bronco Nation too.
Play every available reserve, in a true game situation, and let's see what we have in reserve talent on these last two game days.
As a team with no chance at a playoff spot, this is what experimentation is worth in the N.F.L., find out who is and who isn't for talent. This current cast, including "the dope" should also be evaluated as a group too. Take notes Pat Bowlen, you are on the spot as an owner as well! Don't flail around and grouse about this being gimme games to the opposition, do the job as an owner, coach, and as players and see what you have in talent, from front office on down. These last two games could show whether or not Mike Shanahan stays or goes and possibly for the future of Pat Bowlen too. As I well know, no one will read my thoughts, and that's fine, I understand that with all postings, but Mr. Bowlen should know that a boycott of his product can and will be organized from within the Nation...that Mr. Bowlen is how we define winning an unattainable situation with you and our team.
December 20, 2007
12:42 p.m.
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chrisb writes:
GJrodbuner,
I'm not sure an Owner's future can be at stake. What would Pat Bowlen do fire himself? sell the team? Please, your not going to stop him from making money. You might get some coachs fired, but not Shanahan after only two mediocre seasons. Ever heard of "Coach for Life". Go ahead and boycott, but i have many friends who will take your tickets. If your really from Broncos Nation then you will support this team and its owner even after one losing season with a rookie quarterback.
And for the future people do read these sometimes, so try to get to the point.
December 20, 2007
2:58 p.m.
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GJrodburner writes:
Yes, I've heard of "coach for life". That very idea in and of itself should divide any and all ranks in the Nation, but it maybe that to keep giving your hard earned cash to Pat just tells me you are not giving enough thought to what boycotting this cash cow can really do. It is your privelage and right to do with your money as you see fit. But to give it away in order to keep a mediocre front office and coaching staff together, along with miserable selections in FA seems silly to me. If you are really thinking that this will resolve itself by this time next year, I do think you are going to be wrong. Getting to the point: number one is to thank you, seriously, for taking time from your day to read my thoughts. Can't keep it simple, every time I try it just doesn't work. Number two, this season is a culmination of over nine-seasons. This year isn't just one losing season with a rookie qb. Point is: it hasn't gotten any better for this team in this current decade. One play-off win is absolutely pitiful. Lack of direction from the owner; the GM and VP of football operations, the coaching staff (with the exception of the running backs coach), and to the team itself seems to be the M.O. of the entire oganization. Given the fact that when all is said and done, this posting will be seen by the team and organization, including our give and take in this forum, as pure folly. Yet we still care enough to either attend, watch at home, or comment. The team and the owner will do as they "think": so why keep paying to go along for the same "Groundhog Day" car-crash? Let's change. Sometimes change is bad. In this current formula for the Broncos, I think change is a warrented solution. Yeah, I know that Pat won't sell the team, because he likes our money. So why on earth would you want to keep paying for the same lousy product year-in-and-year out? Saying you see the warts doesn't mean you hate the team. Do you have a solution to this mess? My solution is trivial, yet here it is. Use the last two games of the season and find out where our reserve talent is. Mesh it with the current starters that need to be kept, chuck the rest (if possible), draft well, and put the fire to the feet of the current head coach and see if he is really worth the extension he was given. I don't care if we lose these last two games because they mean nothing. So why not see if this coach can still do his job, with what he has drafted, and have Pat Bowlen watch and find out if his trust in Mike is warrented. I'd like to read your thoughts. Go back and read what DK wrote in this article. Do you believe that this organization is on track in this current state of denial?
December 21, 2007
10:31 p.m.
Suggest removal
BirdonaWire writes:
All the big name FAgents we signed or traded for have been huge disapointments. Graham's money should have gone toward kearney. Bly is way over rated. Henry is good when healthy, but 9 kids? Keep loading with guys like Marshall, Cutler, Scheffler, Dumervil. I'd look to get the Long kid from Michigan. Our oline is getting older and banged up. Tommy Nalen is a question mark.
December 22, 2007
9:30 p.m.
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GJrodburner writes:
Bird, you sir are correct on the FA's.
I'll take my chances on the kids in the draft. Does this mean we as a team shouldn't dabble in the FA-market? Not until our team's GM and VP of football operations can utilize a better talent matrix than the one currently in use (if the Broncos even have one). I hate to parrot DK, but the kid coming out of Ohio State would greatly improve our LB-corps; and allow DJ Williams the opportunity to go back to the weak side and do his business correctly. As this D-line matures next season I think you'll see that Dry Bly isn't a bust, just overworked taking up the slack that this season's line and linebackers can't do as a group in the scheme (whatever it is) that is employed.
Yes, Tom Nalen is old, but his talent at that position needs to be drawn off of for at least two more seasons. Then they need him to be groomed to take over the offensive line coaching duties. He is as close as we will ever get to Alex Gibbs again.