Thorn: A sure-fire novel title? Computer model knows

Saturday, July 29, 2006

I'm nothing if not a nurturer. So here's a little tip for all you best-selling-novelist wannabes out there: Write whatever you want, but whatever you do, title your story Killing Naked Roses.

I know, I know. You have no idea what a naked rose is, but why quibble? If a recent study can be believed, the title has an 80 percent chance of hitting The New York Times' best-sellers list. And let's face it, that's a whole lot better than your odds of scoring a winning lottery ticket.

The study was commissioned by Lulu.com, a Web site devoted to helping authors self-publish and market their wares. With the aid of a statistician, Lulu.com analyzed 700 titles: 350 that made No. 1 on The New York Times' best-sellers list from 1955 to 2004, and 350 others by the same authors, that didn't reach No. 1. The idea was to see what the best-selling titles had that the losers didn't.

After running 11 variables through a computer, the group came up with two main conclusions:

• Defying common publishing belief, long titles have just as much chance as short titles to become best sellers.

• As with a seductive woman, a little mystery goes a long way; figurative titles fared better than the concrete. "This is really a long-term historical trend going back to the 19th century," says Peter Freedman of Lulu.com. "In the 19th century, (titles) were more likely to be literal than they are now." Think Oliver Twist and Wuthering Heights, compared with, say, The Unbearable Lightness of Being.

Based on such factors, Lulu has devised a computer model to help wannabe writers estimate a title's chances for best-sellerdom. Its made-up title Killing Naked Roses had the highest score the computer recorded, as did Agatha Christie's real title Sleeping Murder.

Other high-scorers: Looking for Mr. Goodbar (Judith Rosner), Presumed Innocent (Scott Turow), Everything's Eventual (Stephen King), Rising Sun (Michael Crichton), Valhalla Rising (Clive Cussler), Gone With the Wind (Margaret Mitchell) and To Kill a Mockingbird (Harper Lee).

Lee's title is one of my all-time favorites: suggestive of mystery, tragedy and whimsy all at once. But if I weren't such a nurturer, I could mercilessly bash a few of the others. In fact, just a quick glance at the books I have stacked up around my desk found at least four that are supremely better than anything on that list.

Just try to improve on:

• You Gotta Have Balls: By the time you realize it's a novel about a woman who wants to open a meatball restaurant, it's too late to turn back.

• How To Stop Your 67 Worst Worries: C'mon, tell me you wouldn't leaf through that one, if only to see why they couldn't come up with three more to round out the number.

• The Second Wives Club: Hey, go with what works.

• Too Darn Hot: The appeal of this thriller title is self-explanatory, just like the rising thermometer.

Ah well. I'm just going by gut, whereas Lulu's titles have been scientifically vetted - and if history is any indication, getting this down to a science would be a godsend to any writer. Freedman reminds me that titles matter more than you think.

The book originally titled Four-and-a-half Years of Struggle Against Lies, Stupidity and Cowardice, for example, didn't ignite much passion. But Mein Kampf made quite a splash. "I think the second world war might not have happened if he hadn't changed the title," Freedman says, referring to Hitler's notorious tome.

And when Oscar Wilde renamed Pen, Pencil and Poison to The Story of a Notorious Criminal, sales tripled - though Freedman is careful to note that title alone can't launch a book into the best-seller stratosphere. "Obviously, you need a good book as well," he says, quite sensibly.

In any case, it's all old news now. Freedman has since moved on to other important book studies, including one showing that the best age at which to write a best seller is 50 1/2 years, disproving the idea "that all hot best sellers are from writers in their 20s living in lofts in New York."

So scribble away on that ancient manuscript withering in your desk drawer - then test your title on Lulu.com. Freedman notes that his computer model can predict success 40 percent better than random guesswork can.

Of course, you could always save yourself the brain damage and just call it Killing Naked Roses. As for the plot, I'd love to help - but jeez, haven't I done enough for you already?

How do you score?

• Make sure you have a grammar expert nearby when you visit Lulu.com; the scoring apparatus requires you to know intricate and confusing parts of speech. And don't take the results as gospel; The Da Vinci Code scores a meager 36 percent. Want Lulu to do the work for you? Other high-scoring titles made up by the Web site include Your Last Midnight, Murdered Roses and I, the Caliph of Baghdad. Just add prose and plot. Learn more at: www.lulu.com/titlescorer

Patti Thorn is the books editor. thornp@RockyMountainNewscom. 303-892-5419