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KRIEGER: Fifty wins nice goal to aim for

By Dave Krieger, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published October 30, 2007 at midnight

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Sixty wins for the Nuggets? Did I hear that right?

Fifty-five, anyway. For sure. Isn't that what they said as training camp opened?

What a relief. Just in time, too. Allen Iverson is 32 this season.

A.I. may be a freak of nature, but the traditional trajectory for 30-something players his size suggests the Anthony and Iverson Show needs to get on the stick if it wants to get out of the first round of the playoffs.

Despite this imperative, The Dude and I decided to produce the fourth edition of our unpatented preseason evaluation model anyway. Much as we enjoy preseason hype, we are aware that if it were true, there would be way too many championship trophies to hand out in June.

Much to our surprise, it has worked pretty well. Our model forecast seven of the eight Western Conference playoff teams each of the past two years. The first year, it got six.

Our only mistake last year was including the Clippers instead of the Warriors. We were thrown off by the Clippers' rout of the Nuggets in the playoffs the previous spring.

As you may recall, we rank the likely starters in the Western Conference at each position, one through 15. We rank the coaches and benches the same way. Last year, we added an eighth category - defense, measured by opposing field-goal percentage from the previous season - trying to soften the model's rewards for offensive statistics.

For the first time, The Dude's favorite player is in the West, so Allen Iverson was going to be No. 1 on one of his lists. The question was which one.

A.I. can be listed as a point guard or shooting guard. He's played both, and the Nuggets will surely use him as both this year, sometimes beside point guard Chucky Atkins as a shooter, other times beside shooter J.R. Smith as a quarterback, assuming Smith is not out clubbing instead.

Arbitrarily, I made Iverson/Smith the starting backcourt (even though Smith will be suspended for the first three games), purely for Smith's size. Coach George Karl claims to be emphasizing defense this year. Every time I picture two sub-6-foot guards at the defensive end, I wonder if I missed the punch line.

If he really wants to emphasize defense, he'll start Yakhouba Diawara, but that's another column.

So The Dude, who went off to college this year and is doing this stuff by e-mail, ranked A.I. the best point guard in the West. "This is the year he proves he can be a true 1," he wrote. "He'll average 20 pts, 10 ast, 5 reb, 3 stls a game."

The Dude's loyalty is admirable, but A.I. has never averaged that many assists, rebounds or steals, and I don't see him setting three career highs at 32.

I had him fifth, behind Steve Nash, Baron Davis, Tony Parker and Chris Paul.

Our final rankings are a straight compromise. A.I. is third, behind Nash and Davis.

We had bigger disagreements than that. The Dude, being young, looks to the future, at what players can become. Being less young, I look to the past, at what they've done.

For example, he ranked the Nuggets' Nene third among Western power forwards. "This is his year to be that low post presence that we have needed forever," he wrote.

I had Nene 10th, which is where he ended up. I took advantage of The Dude being preoccupied with midterms.

I see Nene's potential too, but ranking promise ahead of performance is fair only for first- or second-year players. After that, you have to produce. Last year, he was a 12 and seven guy. Everyone ahead of him in our rankings had better numbers.

Granted, he was coming off knee surgery. Our only other data is from his rookie year, when he was a 10 and six guy. I agree that he is capable of a breakout year. I have no idea when - or if - it will happen.

The Dude ranked Carmelo Anthony fourth among small forwards. He's a big Tracy McGrady fan - "the best of the best of the best, Sir!" he wrote, a Will Smith line from Men in Black.

I ranked Anthony first. I wish he'd round out his game, too, but scorers think like scorers, and he's a really good one. He also doesn't have McGrady's back issues.

I see The Dude's point, though. If A.I. should get more double-doubles - the Nuggets were 11-1 last season when he did - Anthony should get one every night.

The Dude is very high on some of the league's young players, and his influence raised their rankings generally, particularly in the cases of LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy and rookies Kevin Durant and Mike Conley Jr.

Our system puts these teams in the playoffs next spring: Suns, Spurs, Mavericks, Rockets, Nuggets, Warriors, Jazz, Hornets.

As the highest-ranked team from the Northwest Division, it makes the Nuggets division champs.

But at No. 5 in the conference, our model does not suggest 60 wins, although 55 is possible. Last year's fifth-best team, the Jazz, won 51.

Reality check: The Nuggets haven't won 50 games in 19 years. Once they break that unfortunate streak, they can always aim higher.