KRIEGER: There's no positive spin for Rockies' weak rotation

By Dave Krieger, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Monday, June 25, 2007

One of the best things about baseball as a summer companion is that it carries you along on a succession of swells and eddies that produces a daily drama no other sport can match.

It is useful for players and managers to view the long season as a marathon for the metaphorical value of putting one foot in front of the other, day after day. But it's not. A marathon has only one result, at the end. Baseball has 162 individual verdicts, which is how despair becomes exultation becomes impatience in the space of a few weeks.

Take the kid Rocks, who reinvigorated baseball fans in these parts by winning five of six from the Red Sox and Yankees as they surged to four games over .500 last week. Then they went to Toronto over the weekend and got swept, including a one-hit shutout by the Blue Jays' Dustin McGowan on Sunday.

Had McGowan completed his no-no, doubtless this would have been taken as a return to futility on the part of the Rockies - as even the one-hitter might be. But this is not the problem.

The Rocks' offensive surge over the last month has put them in the upper half of the National League in the major offensive categories - second in batting, second in on-base percentage, fifth in runs, fifth in RBI. They scored 14 runs in three games at Toronto and didn't win once.

The Rocks' problem, as I might have mentioned, is they have only two reliable starting pitchers at present. Unfortunately, neither Jeff Francis nor Rodrigo Lopez pitched in Toronto. As a result, the Rocks did not get a quality start there.

Although the improvement in their pitching over the last month has moved them from last in the NL in ERA to the middle of the pack, they regressed north of the border, surrendering 25 runs, 22 of them earned.

The problems in the starting rotation bled into the bullpen, as they often do. Coming off their sweep of the Yankees without a day off, the Rocks used five relievers in support of Jason Hirsh in the opener at Toronto. As a result, although Aaron Cook was ineffective in the second game, manager Clint Hurdle had to stick with him - to the tune of eight runs in 5 1/3 innings - to avoid incinerating his bullpen.

It all starts with the rotation, which now presents three distinct problems:

? Hirsh (3-6) is a rookie from whom ups and downs are to be expected. With his ERA now at 5.06, he's on a short leash. In fact, if he doesn't get it together in his next start, the chances are pretty good he will be sent down to rediscover his command.

? Josh Fogg (3-6) is a veteran who is pitching according to form. His 4.81 ERA nearly matches his 4.86 career number. He has given the Rocks some exceptional starts this season, including wins against the Red Sox and Yankees, but went more than a month without a win before that. He is your basic fifth starter whose weaknesses would be easier to absorb if the other four were reliable.

? Cook (4-5) is the biggest mystery. He showed great promise two years ago, going 7-2 in 13 starts with a 3.67 ERA. Since then, the trend line has been going south - to 4.23 last year and 4.93 this year. For his career, opposing hitters are batting .296 against him. After starting Opening Day, he clearly is no better than the Rocks' No. 3 starter at this point and wouldn't be even that if Hirsh and Fogg weren't equally problematic.

Privately, Rockies brass hoped power-arm prospects Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales would be ready by now for a big-league trial. Unfortunately, neither is enjoying the breakout minor league season the club was looking for.

The Rocks' best prospect remains last year's top draft pick, Greg Reynolds, who just returned to Double-A Tulsa after a bout of shoulder stiffness. Reynolds' numbers (4-1, 1.46) positively sparkle.

Just before he was sidelined, I suggested the Rocks give him a look. General manager Dan O'Dowd said the plan at the time was a couple more starts at Double-A, then a handful at Triple-A and, if all went well, a promotion to the Rocks later this summer. With his continuing dominance at Double-A - he threw five scoreless innings in his return - his promotion to Triple-A could come any time.

For now, spot starter Taylor Buchholz is first in line to move back into the rotation after giving up one run in 8 1/3 innings since returning to the bullpen.

And, of course, with Jeff Baker and Ian Stewart waiting in the wings at third base, there is always the possibility of trading Garrett Atkins for an established big-league starter.

Whatever they do, the Rocks can't go too much longer with three unreliable starters and hope to contend. If they didn't know that already, the Blue Jays just drove the point home.

kriegerd@RockyMountainNews.com