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Krieger: This might come back to bite me

By Dave Krieger, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published March 1, 2007 at midnight

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TUCSON - Eighty-five. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

The Rocks will win 85 games this season. Meaning they will lose 77. Meaning, if my arithmetic is correct, they will win more than they lose.

Which would be the first time they've done that since 2000. And only the fourth time in their 15-year history.

It would also constitute their highest win total ever, which is clearly not saying much.

The glory days? That playoff year now remembered nostalgically as the high-altitude version of the '27 Yankees? They were 77-67 in the strike-shortened '95 season.

Eighty-five wins will not win the National League West - the Dodgers will win at least 90 - but it will give the words wild and card meaning.

No, to answer your question, I haven't been drinking. Not liquor and not Kool-Aid, either. Nor am I giddy from their Cactus League opener Wednesday, although it was entertaining to watch them knock around Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland.

In the midst of this particular Colorado winter, the value in the spring lidlifter was mainly aesthetic. It may have been only 55 degrees in Tucson, with a wind blowing out to right that bent palm trees, but it wasn't snowing.

As long as we're talking about it, the most auspicious sign was Brad Hawpe drilling a double down the right field line off Buehrle, the White Sox southpaw. Hawpe, you may recall, batted 70 points lower against lefties than righties last year, which is why right field became a platoon situation in September and why, for the moment, it is expected to be again.

Considering that Jeff Baker, the right-handed half of the platoon, hit .368 in his September audition, that's not necessarily a bad thing, but it removed Hawpe from the company of Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins as a run producer.

Not to play hitting coach - although I believe everyone else has taken a turn - but his swing looked long and loopy last year, particularly against lefties. It looks more compact this spring. After Wednesday's 3-for-3, I asked Hawpe if he'd shortened it up.

"Little bit, yeah," he said. "Last year, there would be times when I'd be twisting. I'd twist to hit. I just want to stay straight. So maybe it is a little bit less movement. 'Closing off' is the term we use. I don't want to be closing and then having to swing around my body. Stay straight. I just try to stay right there and load up and be on time."

Hawpe, by the way, does not admit that hitting lefties is a weakness. In his view, the disparity was all about opportunity. Of his 499 at-bats last year, only 69 were against left-handers.

"It's just at-bats," he said. "That's the trick. Hitting off them during the winter, getting some ABs, looking for pitches to hit. (Wednesday), I started off against a left-hander and I didn't feel like I had to get up there and hurry up to get a hit to prove something. I think it's just part of growing up and not being so tough on myself each at-bat."

If Hawpe can take the next step as a hitter, the Rocks' right-left-right-left middle of the order - Holliday, Todd Helton, Atkins and Hawpe - could put up scary numbers. And we haven't even talked about Javy Lopez (two doubles in the opener) or Troy Tulowitzki or Willy Taveras or Steve Finley.

That leaves pitching, which distant observers expect to suffer from the loss of Jason Jennings. The Rocks' depth of candidates here is unprecedented. The 6-foot-8 Jason Hirsh, obtained in the deal for Jennings along with Taveras and Taylor Buchholz, is already penciled into Jennings' slot.

Add him to Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis and Rodrigo Lopez, and you are down to one fifth starter - Byung-Hyun Kim or Josh Fogg - instead of two.

Now consider that Ubaldo Jimenez might force his way into the conversation this spring. Or Oscar Rivera, Vinny Castilla's recommendation from Mexico. Or Brian Lawrence, the veteran inning-eater expected to be back from shoulder surgery rehab by late April or early May.

It's not as if all these guys have to pop. For the first time in their history, the Rockies have a depth of talent that makes an upside surprise or two quite likely. These are the spoils of patience with the kid Rocks for the past five years.

Keep in mind, my rose-colored glasses are brand new. I've spent the last several springs betting against them doing anything like this. And if owner Charlie Monfort bets on them to win the division again, I'll bet against it again. But I would jump at the over in Vegas, where the number was 74 last I checked.

The world expects the Rocks to bite because they always bite. It says here this is the year they don't.