Ringolsby: NL Central might be full of surprises

Published January 19, 2007 at midnight

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The Chicago Cubs shelled out more than $300 million in one of the biggest offseason spending sprees in history. They severed ties with manager Dusty Baker and brought Lou Piniella out of retirement, hoping to finally figure out a way to get back to the World Series, which they haven't won since taking the title in 1907 and '08. Heck, they haven't been to the World Series since 1945.

In the end, however, their bid for respectability is going to come down to getting solid seasons from two of four pitchers - Mark Prior, Rich Hill, Jason Marquis and Sean Marshall. The Cubs need to find a surprise in their rotation to provide support for ace Carlos Zambrano.

If there is a division ripe for a surprise, it's the National League Central.

St. Louis might be the defending world champion, but the Cardinals won the division with only 83 regular-season victories and haven't made a significant addition this offseason.

Challenger Houston tried to beef up its offense with outfielder Carlos Lee, a defensive liability, and already has lost left-hander Andy Pettitte and could lose right-hander Roger Clemens as well.

Milwaukee has never shown an ability to stay healthy enough to be a factor in the Central. Pittsburgh is only two losing seasons shy of the all-time record of 16 in a row set by the 1933-48 Philadelphia Phillies.

Cincinnati will provide spring intrigue with Ken Griffey Jr. getting some playing time in right field to see if that will ease the strain on his aging body. And when the season begins, Houston's Craig Biggio will be on center stage in his quest for the 70 hits he needs to become the 27th member of the 3,000-hit club.

Overheard

• Outfielder Sammy Sosa, who sat out last season, signed a minor league deal with Texas, the team that originally signed him out of the Dominican Republic. Sosa was invited to big league spring training. Rangers hitting coach Rudy Jara-millo was Sosa's first professional manager, in the Gulf Coast League in 1985.

• Dodgers manager Grady Little is in line to get a contract extension. His original two-year deal includes an option for 2008.

• Clemens doesn't know when he will pitch - if at all - in 2007, but he has created a strong market. Houston figures to have the inside track because it's where he lives and has pitched the past two years, but Boston has already made an overture and the Yankees have made it known they won't be outbid if Clemens decides to return.

The readers' turn

Rich Carvill wonders if the Rockies are "talking with (Matt) Holliday and (Garrett) Atkins about extending their contracts and do you think

we'll be able to keep them? As a season-ticket holder from Day 1, I'm hoping that this youth movement is truly a commitment to building a winner and not just a way for the ownership to save money. The time has come for the Rockies ownership to take the next step - and I just hope it's forward and not another step back."

Rich, there were initial talks about long-term deals, but both players, at least initially, have one- year deals for 2007. Holliday did sign this week to avoid arbitration. Atkins, however, is a year from arbitration.

Holliday will be an interesting case. A year ago, he changed agents, hiring Scott Boras, who has a track record of taking his players to free agency. The Rockies are hopeful they can sign Holliday and Atkins, but only time will tell.

The key to a homegrown program is that a handful of players are identified and signed, and the farm system is counted on to provide a steady flow of quality players to replace others. That's the way it has worked in Atlanta, where turnover during the Braves' 14 consecutive division-title seasons was high but never got much attention because they kept winning with new faces.

For Tracy Ringolsby's response and to ask questions of your own, check out the Rockies blog at www.Rocky MountainNews.com/rockies.

Two cents' worth

Former Seattle and Cleveland general manager Dan O'Brien once explained that the problem with new owners and first-time general managers is "they all want to reinvent the wheel. It takes a few years and a lot of headaches before they realize that round is still the best shape."

When J.P. Ricciardi became general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays in the fall of 2001, he spoke of revamping the team's farm system and scouting staff because he wanted to have a more productive organization, even though the Jays had produced more big league players than any in history.

Wonder if Ricciardi has accepted the round-tire theory yet? Of all the players on 40-man rosters this offseason, Toronto initially signed 54 of them, the most of any franchise. Since 2000, however, the Jays had signed only 20, which was tied with Florida and the Chicago White Sox for ninth.

MILE HIGH WATCH

• The Chin-hui Tsao era with the Rockies ended before it really began.

The Taiwanese right-hander - he was the franchise's first major foreign signing effort when he was given a $2.2 million signing bonus in fall 1999 - never was healthy enough to live up to the expectations.

Finally, in the fall, baseball rules put the Rockies in a position where they decided they had to take Tsao off their major league roster. They had hoped to sign him to a minor league contract but never got a response from Tsao, who this week opted to join the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers gave him a split contract that will pay him $400,000 if he makes the big league roster.

That's considerably less than the financial commitment the Rockies would have faced. Tsao has pitched only 63 2/3 innings in 29 big league games, but with major injuries the past three years, he wound up with two years, 87 days of big league service time, which would have made him eligible for arbitration if the Rockies had kept him on their winter roster.

Tsao's big league ledger with the Rockies: a 4-3 record, four saves and 5.80 ERA.

• The Mountain Collegiate Baseball League enjoyed enough success in its first two years that it will expand to five teams this summer, with a Parker franchise joining existing teams in Laramie, Fort Collins, Cheyenne and Greeley. The plan is to add a team in Golden for the 2008 season. The Golden team ran into problems with the construction of a field, which kept it from becoming a member this year.

Each team will play a 48-game schedule. The league, which features college players, will begin its season June 2.

• John Mabry, who signed a minor league contract with the Rockies this week, has shown an unusual loyalty in the big-business world of baseball. He has the same agent today he had when he signed his first pro contract - Dale Reichley, a trial lawyer from Quakertown, Pa., who got to know Mabry when Mabry played with Reichley's son at West Chester University.

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