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Krieger: Repeating 2005 gets tougher

Published September 23, 2006 at midnight

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On the business page, they call it an easy comparison.

Gypsy moths ate your entire inventory last year, so this year's results, after you closed the windows, look pretty good.

The Broncos have been living off this notion for the past two weeks. Easy comparisons. Yes, they looked lousy losing to St. Louis in Week 1, but then, they looked lousy last year losing to Miami in Week 1 and last year turned out OK.

Yes, they looked barely better edging Kansas City in overtime in Week 2, but they looked barely better last year edging San Diego in Week 2 and last year turned out OK.

The Broncos have repeated their talking points more reliably than any political party. They have made it sound reasonable to believe they are terrific even if they aren't playing like it.

Regrettably, the easy comparisons are over. In Week 3 a year ago, the Broncos stomped the Chiefs 30-10. They rushed for 221 yards. They led 17-0 after one quarter.

Either the Broncos get their game together in a big hurry Sunday night in Foxborough or they stop tracking last year's results and have to find another explanation for ranking 27th in the NFL in scoring.

A number of AFC teams have been impressive in the early going, but the Broncos aren't one of them. Six go into the weekend at 2-0 and the Patriots have probably been the least impressive of the six.

For the Broncos, the comparison to last year has been the main consolation, but the Week 3 comparison is hard. Last year, it was at home. This year, it's on the road. And the Patriots aren't the Chiefs.

Quite suddenly, the chasm between the Broncos' expectations and their early returns must be reconciled. If they come out of Foxborough with a 2-1 record, the comparisons to last year are validated and they remain fixed to that historical track, with even more street cred for winning in New England.

If, on the other hand, they come out of Foxborough at 1-2, the comparisons come off the rails and they go into the bye week with more questions than answers.

The fact is the Broncos are 1-1 against teams with a combined record of 1-3.

They are averaging 9.5 points per game and surrendering 12. Reminds you a little of the old Rockies.

The club has protested that the fixation on the play of quarterback Jake Plummer is typical fan and media myopia, but the numbers are hard to ignore. The only AFC quarterbacks with lower passer ratings are Kerry Collins of Tennessee and Andrew Walter of Oakland. Talk about easy comparisons.

On the bright side, Jake's 38.6 is right behind Ben Roethlisberger's 38.7, although he's missing the motorcycle accident and appendectomy as explanations.

Jake may have no choice but to win or lose this one himself, frightening as that prospect might be to those who have watched his four interceptions and zero touchdowns in the first two weeks. The Patriots are surrendering only 75 rushing yards per game. The Broncos running game is averaging twice that.

On the other hand, the Patriots are vulnerable to the pass. Last season, they ranked 31st, giving up 231 yards per game through the air. This year, they are 18th, at 213.5.

The Broncos, of course, are 29th in passing, averaging only 135.5, but, as you may know, they started slowly last year, too. Jake bounced back in a big way in Week 3, putting up a passer rating of 116.0, another hard comparison.

The advantage of playing the Patriots early in the season is you avoid the New England winter. The disadvantage is the Patriots' golden oldies on defense are still healthy. The addition of Junior Seau to the front seven has made it even stouter against the run than it was, and it was pretty stout to start with.

There are two scenarios in which the Broncos escape Gillette Stadium with a win.

One is defensive domination. The other is Jake getting well.

For what it's worth, bodog.com says you have to wager $160 to win $100 on the proposition that Jake will throw his first touchdown pass of the season Sunday night.

You can wager $120 to win $100 on the proposition that he won't. In other words, the oddsmakers like his chances.

Of course, they also like the Patriots to win the game by seven, which suggests they are not buying the easy comparisons that justify the Broncos' sleepy start.

From the outside, the most charitable assessment has the Broncos as the seventh-best team in the AFC through the first two weeks, and that may be a stretch.

It's also a long way from the preseason conversation about a conference championship.

It's still early, which is the point they keep making with those easy comparisons.

It's possible to start 1-1 and end up 13-3. You can look it up.

The way you do it is by getting your game together right now. You can look that up, too.