Rosen: Mixed messages from Iraq

Published March 30, 2007 at midnight

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"Democracy's support sinks," blared the headline last week in USA Today, reporting on a recent poll of a cross section of Iraqis. The story's lead read: "Four years after the U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, the once strong support among Iraqis for building a unified and democratic nation has eroded in the face of increasing violence and sectarian strife."

Well, sort of. According to the poll, when asked which political system they believe is best for the country now, a plurality, 43 percent, of Iraqis said a "democracy," 34 percent said "one strong leader," and 22 percent said an "Islamic state." While overall support for a democratic system has indeed slipped (in 2005, 57 percent chose democracy), the fact that it's still supported by a plurality of Iraqis in spite of the relentless violence is significant.

Moreover, the factional breakdown of the poll results is predictable and revealing. Support for democracy in Iraq was never universal. From the outset, it was always more popular among Shiites and Kurds who had been brutally oppressed by Saddam's Sunni-minority dictatorship. As the majority, with 60 percent of the population, the prospect of majority rule is understandably more appealing to Shiites. The Kurdish fifth of the population wants mostly to be left alone in a semi-autonomous northern Iraq; an Iraqi democracy offers them a greater likelihood of that. And the Sunni fifth of Iraqis is partial to the good old days under Saddam when they ruled the country. So it was hardly surprising the USA Today poll found Shiites split with 41 percent favoring democracy and 40 percent favoring a secular Islamic state; 66 percent of Kurds favoring democracy and only 10 percent favoring a Shiite Islamic state (Kurds are largely Sunni); and 58 percent, a majority of Sunnis, favoring "one strong leader" (i.e., a Sunni dictator like Saddam) and (a surprising and encouraging) 38 percent favoring democracy.

Understandably, most Iraqis yearn for the day when the foreign occupation is over, when secular and sectarian violence ends and when the conditions of daily life stabilize. The question is: On whose terms and under what form of government? Instant peace simply isn't on the menu right now. A precipitous withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces would only plunge the nation into chaos and a much enlarged civil war. The poll results reflect Iraqi frustration and contradictions, along with a grudging understanding of this. The U.S. is caught in the middle of a multitude of warring factions while it labors to craft democratic institutions that will protect all sides. This is a thankless task. So it's no wonder we're resented.

On the one hand, by a ratio of 3-to-1, Iraqis say the continued presence of coalition forces is making the security situation worse. On the other hand, a large majority of Iraqis, 65 percent (87 percent of Kurds and 72 percent of Shiites), want coalition forces to remain until certain conditions are met, while only 35 percent of Iraqis say coalition forces should leave right now (predictably, 55 percent of Sunnis want them out immediately).

Regarding a final disposition, overall only 6 percent of Iraqis (4 percent of Shiites, 1 percent of Sunnis and 22 percent of Kurds) support the partitioning of Iraq along sectarian lines.

When things were going badly for Gen. Washington and the Continental Army in the early days of the American Revolution, many then were also having second thoughts about the virtues of democracy and whether it was all worth it. Loyalists to the British crown in the American colonies cursed the revolutionaries for the death and destruction they had wrought. Time and victory resolved that dispute for America. In time, it will be resolved for Iraq, as well. Which outcome are you rooting for?

Mike Rosen's radio show airs daily from 9 a.m. to noon on 850 KOA. He can be reached by e-mail at mikerosen@850koa.com.

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