Blake: Round and round the Senate race goes; where it stops . . .

Published November 25, 2006 at midnight

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If Sen. Wayne Allard chooses to run for a third term in 2008, he'll start off trailing Democratic Rep. Mark Udall, his presumed challenger, by a margin of 10 to 1 in one important category: Cash on hand.

Udall, who faced an insignificant re-election challenge this fall, had almost $1,260,000 in the bank at last report. Allard, who wasn't running and didn't try to compete for funds with Republicans who were, reported just $120,500.

Whatever Allard decides to do, his party hopes he makes the decision soon - and sticks to it. Republicans don't want a repeat of the Ben Nighthorse Campbell fiasco. Campbell had given every indication he would run for a third Senate term in 2004 and had raised plenty of money, but waited until March of that year to say "Well, never mind."

This precipitated a mad scramble that resulted in a primary pitting former Rep. Bob Schaffer vs. Pete Coors. The party didn't unite behind winner Coors, who was wiped out by Democrat Ken Salazar in the general.

If Allard does choose to run again, he presumably would raise a lot of money fast, as incumbents tend to do. But so would Udall, and he's already ahead.

If Allard chooses to run for a third term, he would face an uphill battle. Voters in Colorado, unlike those in South Carolina, tend to get bored by senators who hang around too long. (Colorado's last three-term senator was Republican Gordon Allott, who lost a bid for a fourth in 1972.)

What's worse, Allard faces two more years laboring in the ever darkening shadow of George Bush. The president cost many a Republican his or her seat this year - in state as well as federal government. It could be even tougher for the GOP in 2008, unless Bush pulls off a most unlikely miracle in Iraq.

Let's look at the field of possible GOP candidates who might run if Allard doesn't.

Outgoing Gov. Bill Owens is said to be weighing various attractive offers in the private sector and is likely to choose one of them. But one blogger (who shall remain nameless, since he's otherwise sensible) put forth a fascinating if highly unlikely senario:

Allard, facing two years in the minority and seemingly joined at the hip to an unpopular president, decides to resign within the next six weeks, before Bill Ritter takes office. Then Owens can himself resign early and get himself appointed to serve the last two years of Allard's term by incoming Gov. Jane Norton.

This sort of self-aggrandizement has been tried on rare occasions, but almost always proves unpopular with voters. They can hardly wait to turn the rascal out when he runs for a full term. Owens, a student of political history, is well aware of this.

Another possible candidate: Former Rep. Scott McInnis, who gave up his 3rd District seat in 2004. He is still sitting on a campaign nest egg of $938,000, almost as much as Udall.

McInnis is making a large salary at the law firm of Hogan & Hartson in Denver, but clearly misses the hurly-burly of electoral politics.

He has the money and the appetite for vigorous campaigning. But to get the nomination in 2008 he's going to have to make amends with party leaders who recall his bizarre behavior in 2004. A week or so after Campbell said he wouldn't run in March, McInnis also took himself out, saying he had a job lined up with Hogan & Hartson (also Ritter's and Tom Strickland's firm, by the way). He probably could have won the nomination and stood a good chance of beating Salazar. Instead he reluctantly served out his House term, declining to rule out the possibility he might even resign early.

Bob Schaffer is also a possible candidate if Allard doesn't run. Many Republicans still have, as one local observer put it, "buyer's remorse" about having chosen Coors over him in 2004. He wouldn't have done any worse in the general election than Coors did that year. Schaffer is still active politically, having just retained his seat on the State Board of Education from the 4th Congressional District.

U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo is considered a possible Senate candidate. But he already has a national reputation because of his stand on immigration. He has high negatives outside his district and has more to lose than win by risking a statewide run for the Senate.

Attorney General John Suthers, having retained his office in a Democratic year, might want to run for Senate in two years. After all, the AG's job also served as an effective launching pad for Salazar. But Suthers will have to develop a more dynamic style on the stump.

Another GOP longshot: Former State Sen. Mark Hillman. He narrowly lost his bid for state treasurer to Cary Kennedy but is liked and respected by his party. If he can persuade primary voters he was the victim of a Democratic tide, not a bad campaigner, he might run for Senate.

Secretary of State-elect Mike Coffman will have been in office only two years come 2008, and is more likely to wait for a vacancy in the 6th District than run for Senate that year.

Meanwhile, Allard will be under heavy pressure to run again, since incumbents are able to raise more money faster than new candidates.

By the way, there is some speculation - perhaps wishful thinking is a better term - that Udall might actually choose not to run for the Senate in 2008. He's in the majority now, and is in line for at least a subcommittee chairmanship in the House. He might prefer being a bigger fish in the House than a rookie in the Senate.

Udall dropped out of a Senate race once before, in 2004. Just 24 hours after leaping in, Salazar did the same and Udall decided to defer to him.

blakep@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-5119.

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