Broncos scouting report, September 28

Jeff Legwold, Rocky Mountain News

Published September 28, 2007 at midnight

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Matchups

When the Broncos run the ball

• The skinny: It is no accident no team has played the Colts better this season than the Titans, who ran the ball more times, 34, than the Colts' other two opponents and rushed for 141 yards, 35 more than the next best effort. Trouble is, most teams aren't patient enough, they get behind quickly and often abandon the run too early even if down only a score. And patience isn't a virtue against the Colts, it's a necessity. Tough to pull off given what the Colts do on offense, but even Peyton Manning can't score without the ball in his hands.

• It's a fact: In the Colts' three wins this season, none of their opponents has held the ball longer than 31:45.

When the Broncos pass the ball

• The skinny: Few defenses in the league are constructed as effectively for their home field than the Colts are. Tony Dungy's group is built for speed, especially up front, where there isn't a 300-pounder to be found among the 10 defensive linemen on the roster. They attack the edges in the pass rush and play with the knowledge most teams will rotate the help toward Dwight Freeney. Freeney doesn't have a sack this season, but he affects everything an offense does in the passing game. The Colts also like to rocket safety Bob Sanders - he has 2 1/2 sacks - into the mix.

• It's a fact: Last season, the Colts had 19 of their 25 sacks at home, a total that included three four-sack games.

When the Colts run the ball

• The skinny: The Colts always make the most of their opportunities here, and Manning, as he continues to evolve his game, has been far more willing to bash running plays at defenses arranged to stop his receivers down the field. The Colts' 191 rushing yards in the Super Bowl should be all the proof anybody needs. Drop the linebackers too far, leave both safeties too deep and get ready for a steady diet of Joseph Addai, a quality finisher who adds yards after contact - certainly a problem for the Broncos this season.

• It's a fact: There is no riddle or rotation in the Colts' game this season. In 2006, Addai became the first back in history to top 1,000 rushing yards in a season in which he didn't start a game. Addai had 51.5 percent of the team's carries in 2006. This year, he has 81.3 percent.

When the Colts pass the ball

• The skinny: There are myriad problems here for a defense. The Broncos have matched Champ Bailey on Marvin Harrison in recent meetings, only to see the Colts avoid Bailey and pick on somebody else with impunity. Manning watches more video than any passer in the league, so he figures to send a lot of pump fakes Dré Bly's way to see if Bly bites. The Colts also will put tight end Dallas Clark at times down in the slot, where he can overpower safeties to the ball and run by linebackers. The teams that succeed swarm to the ball, limit yards after catches and get enough pressure to make Manning ditch the ball before he wants to.

• It's a fact: The Broncos have six sacks in seven games against Manning, including playoffs, and never have had more than two in any of those games.

Special teams

• The skinny: Both teams have had their blips in the return game. The Broncos have surrendered a 74-yard punt return for a touchdown and two kickoff returns longer than 40 yards. The Colts on Sunday allowed the Texans to bring the opening kickoff of the game 84 yards for a touchdown. Both teams are reliable in the kicking game, but with field position expected to mean so much in this one, punter Todd Sauerbrun needs to tip the field for the Broncos.

• It's a fact: Since Oct. 1 last season, the Colts have surrendered five returns for touchdowns, including in the postseason.

Intangibles

• The skinny: The Colts are playing with the confidence of a champion - it's the kind confidence the Broncos have not quite shown despite their last-second efforts in the first two games - and Indianapolis was not a team that had to be dismantled after winning its title. The key players still are in place, especially on offense, where Manning is in his 10th season with the same offensive coordinator (Tom Moore) and the same playbook.

Jeff Legwold's prediction: Colts 30-20

The facts

• The game: 2:15 p.m. MDT Sunday, RCA Dome (57,890 capacity), Indianapolis.

• The records: Broncos are 2-1; Colts are 3-0.

• The series: Broncos lead 11-5 in regular season; Colts lead postseason 2-0.

• The previous meeting: Oct. 29, 2006; Colts won 34-31 in Denver.

• TV/radio: CBS 4; KOA-AM (850), KBNO-AM (1280, Spanish).

• Who's favored: Colts by 9 1/2.

• Broncos injuries: Out: S Hamza Abdullah (hip), G Ben Hamilton (concussion), Mike Bell (concussion). Did not practice: S John Lynch (groin), WR Javon Walker (knee). Limited: TE Stephen Alexander (calf).

• Colts injuries: Did not practice: LB Tyjuan Hagler (player decision), WR Roy Hall (shoulder), CB Marlin Jackson (quadriceps), CB Tim Jennings (knee), G Ryan Lilja (knee), LB Clint Session (hamstring), T Tony Ugoh (ankle). Limited: T Charlie Johnson (knee), LB Rob Morris (abdomen).

Strive for five:

Jeff Legwold's keys for the Broncos against the Colts

1 Remember when. The Broncos did almost everything right against the Colts last season, except close the deal - Peyton Manning drove the Colts 62 yards in seven plays and Adam Vinatieri kicked the winner with 2 seconds left - but 227 rushing yards and only one turnover is more than a good start against Indianapolis.

2 Find help. Cornerback Champ Bailey has clamped down on Marvin Harrison in recent meetings, but the Colts simply have gone touchdown party time in other parts of the Broncos secondary. They'll need big efforts on Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark as well. Sure, it's a lot to ask, but it's also the only way to win.

3 Get in the comfort zone. Let Manning stand and look at a secondary and it will be a long day. He studies too much to give him too much time to find the hole. The Broncos have to generate some pressure, likely without a lot of blitzing. They could use some of that "outrageous" play Simeon Rice has promised.

4 Pound it. Running back Travis Henry said he wanted to be a team's No. 1 back and play in some big games. This is one the Broncos certainly need with what's ahead on the schedule.

5 Take some measurements. The Colts are 3-0, they are the defending champions and they are one of the best home teams in the league. If the Broncos want to see where they stack up in what figures to be a brutal AFC race, this will provide a big glimpse.

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