2007 Broncos' season preview

Jeff Legwold, Rocky Mountain News

Published September 6, 2007 at midnight

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Outlook

10-6: In what appears to be a rugged AFC playoff race, the Broncos don't have the luxury of time this season. They will have to avoid a lull, the kind that leads to an extended losing streak, if they are to make the postseason. Last season, a four-game losing streak — that included two losses at home — was a key component in their playoff miss, as was their 4-4 record at home. The schedule is front-loaded with home games this time — the Broncos play five of their first seven at Invesco Field at Mile High. So that means the heavy lifting of the stretch drive will have to be done on the road. They finish with four of the last six and six of the last nine on the road, including trips to defending NFC champion Chicago, Kansas City and San Diego. That's a tough way to go to secure a postseason home game, and with an AFC postseason field that could include New England, Indianapolis, San Diego and Baltimore, a postseason trip likely would lead to little more than an early exit.

Five things the Broncos must prove

1. Will Travis Henry overpower injuries and distractions to power the run game?

If Henry, who was one of the Broncos' most promising offseason acquisitions, thinks his child-support case will evaporate soon in the public eye, he is mistaken. Couple that with the sprained left knee he suffered in Dallas and there are the red flags for the season. Henry is a tough, durable player — he played with a cracked bone in an ankle when he was with the Bills — but he has played in 16 games in a season just once (2002). The Broncos need him in the backfield, and his body will be tested with the workload that is coming his way.

2. Can Jay Cutler clear the hurdles he'll face?

This season, defensive coordinators will have spent plenty of time studying Cutler's game — looking at his footwork, arm angle, how he reacts to certain coverages — to see what they might be able to do against him. That puts the onus on Cutler and the coaches to self-scout well enough to predict what might come the quarterback's way. Cutler also will have to deal with the day-to-day grind of being the quarterback in Denver. The job has chewed up its fair share of applicants in recent years, and Cutler's composure will be tested before all is said and done this year.

3. Where are the sacks coming from in this defense?

Yes, this has been a persistent question in recent seasons. The Broncos haven't had a player with at least 11 sacks in a season since Bertrand Berry finished with 11 1/2 in 2003. The Broncos also haven't had at least 40 sacks in season as a team since 2002. For comparison's sake, the Chargers led the league last season with 61. The Broncos are going to need big-time production from Elvis Dumervil, right, and rookie Jarvis Moss. The Broncos need pass pressure or the third-down conversion numbers — almost 50 percent for opposing offenses in the preseason games that the defensive starters played in — won't look very good, and the Broncos will lose some games because of it.

4. When will people see Rod Smith back in the offense?

As the opener neared, Smith was placed on the reserve/physically unable to perform list. That takes him off the roster for the first six games. The Broncos then can bring him back to practice for three weeks before deciding his fate for the season. Should he return this season, as he still expects to, it will be as a complementary player, a transition he says he's ready for and expects.

5. How can they keep themselves in the hunt in the rugged AFC?

Avoid the lull. As prepared and disciplined as coach Mike Shanahan's teams have been during the years, there have been those three- and four-game lulls from time to time. One loss has turned into two and sometimes three or more. Last year, it was a four-game slide that took the team from 7-2 to 7-6 and onto the playoff bubble. This team has no margin for error, not in the same division as the Chargers — and in the same conference as the Patriots, Colts, Ravens, Jaguars and Steelers.

Preseason report card

• RUSHING OFFENSE: No team has rushed for more yardage since the start of the 1995 season than the Broncos, and back after back has churned out the 1,000-yard seasons. The question in recent seasons, though, is about quality, not the quantity. About controlling the clock when the Broncos have to, about converting those third-and-2s when it's time to put away a game. And because Travis Henry got only 15 preseason carries before injuring his left knee, the running game is still a bit of an unknown. The forecast is for a good one, but the proof will be in the regular-season pudding, as always. Grade: B

• PASSING OFFENSE: The receiving corps spent much of the preseason with players missing on the practice field because of injury. In the three games in which Jay Cutler played,he completed 54.8 percent of his passes, far below the 60 percent or so the Broncos would like in the regular season. When things crank up for real, Javon Walker, Brandon Marshall and Brandon Stokley should be the team's top receivers. Marshall could be a consistent matchup victory for the Broncos if he plays with consistency. At 6-foot-4, 230 pounds ,he figures to consistently go against defenses' No. 2 cornerbacks, who will not have his size or strength. Grade: C

• RUSHING DEFENSE: The Broncos want their defensive front to play with more power, and they certainly are bigger than they were last season. The Broncos want D.J. Williams to play middle linebacker because he is unquestionably the best athlete they have overall in the position group. And they want Jim Bates' defensive system to produce a make-no-mistake, physical unit. The jury is out on all three fronts. The Broncos have looked out of sorts and haven't consistently controlled the line of scrimmage. A quality defense should always be able to tackle and win the one-on-one matchups. The Broncos didn't do that for the most part against the run in the preseason. Grade: C-minus

• PASS DEFENSE: If Dré Bly had one thing confirmed to him in the preseason, it is that playing opposite of Champ Bailey means you will be busy, very busy. Bly always has been a playmaker — few corners have knocked the ball free from runners and receivers as consistently as he has — but he always has been the one opposing teams shy away from. Things are different with the Broncos, and he will have to adjust. The Broncos need to find a consistent pass rush groove. They were uneasy enough about the situation to guarantee $3 million to Simeon Rice, who is coming off shoulder surgery, to try to add more pop. Grade: C-plus

• SPECIAL TEAMS: It appears first-year special teams coordinator Scott O'Brien is progressively getting the kind of play he hopes for. The Broncos didn't allow a punt return longer than 14 yards in the preseason until the fourth quarter against Arizona and did not allow a kickoff return longer than 35 yards. In the return game, receiver Domenik Hixon, who was an accomplished returner at Akron, is the only player who returned punts and kickoffs in the first 3 1/2 preseason games. The Broncos didn't get what they expected from punter Todd Sauerbrun until the final preseason game. Grade: B

• COACHING: Combine the roster turnover with the remaking of the defensive coaching staff and it was easily the most change in any offseason of Shanahan's tenure. It would be unrealistic to think it would be a seamless transition, and it hasn't been. The defense has looked choppy without the benefit of full-blown game plans. Some of the veterans have said things should look different when things go for real in Buffalo. But tackling, in particular, is not reliant on a game plan, and it has been spotty at best. Still, this is a veteran team that shouldn't need much prodding to do what's necessary to get into the postseason hunt. Grade: B-minus

Schedule, forecast

Date Opponent Time TV Last year Legwold's pick

Sept. 9 at Buffalo 11 a.m. CBS 4 Did not play Broncos

Sept. 16 Oakland 2:15 p.m. CBS 4 Broncos 13-3 Broncos

Sept. 23 Jacksonville 2:05 p.m. CBS 4 Did not play Broncos

Sept. 30 at Indianapolis 2:15 p.m. CBS 4 Colts 34-31 Colts

Oct. 7 San Diego 2:15 p.m. CBS 4 Chargers 35-27 Chargers

Oct. 14 Bye

Oct. 21 Pittsburgh 6:15 p.m. CH. 9 Broncos 31-20 Steelers

Oct. 29 Green Bay 6:30 p.m. ESPN Did not play Broncos

Nov. 4 at Detroit 11 a.m. CBS 4 Did not play Broncos

Nov. 11 at Kansas City 11 a.m. CBS 4 Chiefs 19-10 Chiefs