If Broncos stay on their toes, they’ll need only one tough win

William Bryan, Special to the News

Published October 23, 2006 at midnight

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All right, boys and girls, take off a shoe. Today we will be counting to 11.

Our homework assignment for this week is to examine the Broncos’ next seven games, but I don’t care and neither do you. Perhaps you think you do, so let’s go to the blackboard.

The Broncos have 10 games remaining, not seven. The Broncos need 11 wins to make the playoffs. Ten will likely do it, but we would prefer not to risk tie-breakers. Tie-breakers just aren’t football. The reason we do not want to disregard the last three games is that two of them are Arizona and San Francisco. We are not being sentimental here; we are just trying to count to 11. Arizona and San Francisco are two, plus the five wins we already have, plus the second Raiders game. That’s eight. The Broncos are a team in search of three wins.

Let’s assume a home-and-home split with San Diego. Those games will pit the No. 1 scoring offense (that would be San Diego, not Denver, for those of you recently off your medication) against the No. 1 scoring defense. The undeniable force vs. the immovable object. But physics is a little out of our purview for this class. We’re just counting to 11, and we are already to nine.

While a struggling division rival on the road normally presents a trap, the Broncos have niftily avoided their trap games over the past two seasons, and Kansas City looks bad. When Trent Green finally returns, he will be protected by the same awful line and throwing to the same pitiful receivers as Damon Huard. Ten.

We have essentially completed a proof that the next seven games are immaterial. Yes, the Broncos have some tough outs left on their schedule, but we have cobbled together 10 prospective wins assuming only one win against a team over .500, and even that is a Marty Schottenheimer-coached team, from which Denver historically has little to fear.

So if the Broncos win the games they should win, which to their credit they have done the past two years outside of their week one debacles, they need to win only one of their tough games. We can choose among Indianapolis or Cincinnati at home or San Diego, Pittsburgh or Seattle on the road. Pick one, and call it 11.

But I warn you that while the counting is simple, the theory is truly difficult. Should you choose to pursue this course of study, you will learn that underlying all of the counting are a lot of philosophical indicators as to what the Broncos intend to do with their playoff berth.

Normally, the freedom to add and subtract creatively is saved for MBA programs, but please take this rare opportunity to count your own way. I got to 12. Once you are done, put your shoe back on. It’s crunch time in the NFL, and it’s getting cold outside.

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